GDT 8/29/20 Atlanta Braves (Tomlin) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Eflin)

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I really recommend watching these games with the Fangraphs win probability open, especially if you have high blood pressure.

Did Fangraphs see that line drive by Markakis to end the game?
A few more inches to the left or the right of Hoskins and we have a whole new win probability percentage (and a few higher BP readings)

[zambonir]

Well, sometimes the 10% probability does happen. And probabilities also account for the fact that there are fielders. I don't think that was gonna score two runs, but it certainly would have been more stressful. You also had two weak hitters coming up after that though (Riley's shot off Morgan yesterday aside).

[andyb]

I was wondering why they left Bohm in the game in the 9th on defense. Might want to start putting Kingery in there and shifting Segura like they use Quinn for late defense. Segura might have had Freeman's hit.

[EDmuch]

If McCovey had hit the line drive 6 inches higher, the Giants would have won the 1962 World Series. But he didn't.

[zambonir]

Ed! Something just reminded me of you the other day, doing all right?

And yeah Bohm should probably get the Pat Burrell/Charlie treatment so long as the season is actually about making the playoffs.

[EDmuch]

My point was simply that what would happen if a ball was hit 6 inches to the left or right of where it was actually hit does not matter. Rhys caught the ball that was hit at him. End of story.

[EDmuch]

And Z, I have survived COVID just fine. would prefer a more traditional baseball season, but this is what we got.

[zambonir]

Glad to hear.

Certainly how hard or weakly a ball is hit, and where, does tell you something about how good the pitch was, but they can't all be strikeouts.

[Austinfan]

Heck of a game by Eflin, I've been a believer for a year, time for some of you to jump on the bandwagon.
The idiot PC from last season really tried to screw him up.
Why would you want a pitcher to get away from a 94-95 2 seamer with great movement?
Now if Price can just teach him a changeup.

[tom81]

There is no need to have Eflin improve his changeup if his curve stays at the level it was today. He used 4 pitches effectively, great game and without the rain delay he would certainly have pitched the 8th and maybe the 9th as well. He only threw 83 pitches and never really had any problems. I loved how Knapp called the game, Eflin works with him well. He was mixing in his 4 seam FB very well too and should continue using it as he did, not over using it as they had him do last year. Good analysis by Megan:

Zach Eflin's growing confidence in curveball could prove pivotal for Phillies

[andyb]

The curve does seem to be the big change this year and the reason the strikeouts are increasing. We'll still have to see if batters adjust though. The fastball is still really hittable if he does not locate it well. This year he has been locating it on the corners (or slightly off them outside). It is a reason the pitch counts prior to yesterday were up along with the Ks.

[Austinfan]

He's got more movement on the 2 seamer this year, now it's in the same league as Nola and Arrieta.
He doesn't have Nola's command of course, but seems similar to what I've seen of Arrieta this season.

The changeup took Nola to another level, it's harder to pick up than a curve, a plus changeup with a 94-95 FB is a deadly combination. I suspect Price will be working with him but we probably won't see it until next season on a regular basis.