GDT 8/25/18 Philadelphia Phillies (Pivetta) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Sanchez, Aa)

[LoneStarPhan]

Quinn also had 2 hits, scored 2 and drove in 2.

Record now 69-60.

[LoneStarPhan]

Jim Salisbury (JSalisburyNBCS)

[EastFallowfield]

Braves lost again to the Marlins. We used to watch this team bounce back from crushing defeats but they come all too often lately.

[allentown]

The MLB Pivetta strikes me as having a lot of the AAA Appel in him, before Appel totally fell apart. Like Appel, Pivetta can cruise along until something goes wrong, usually losing control and walking a guy or two, and then the wheels just come off. For both guys, it could happen after cruising for several innings. With Appel, it seemed he just wasn't all that effective pitching from the stretch, plus there seemed to be mental/loss of pitching motion issues, where he just couldn't throw the ball close to where he wanted it and it spiraled downhill. Pivetta hasn't spiraled out of games to the same extent as Appel, but tonight was sort of close. What is it? Lack of confidence? Just can't regather himself during an inning, so that losses are built out of awful innings, then he can go back to dugout and recover, until the next bad inning.

[mdougherty12]

Among all pitchers in MLB with 200 IP in 2017 and 2018, Nick Pivetta has the second largest negative discrepancy between ERA and FIP, 1.19, just barely behind Matt Moore's 1.20. One thing I notice looking at his splits is that Pivetta has particularly large "bases empty"/"runners on" splits:

Pivetta career - bases empty - .248/.306/.426 - runners on - ..311/.377/.502
NL average (2017, all pitchers) - bases empty - .251/.318/.422 - runners on - .262/.339/.430
Vince Velasquez career (for comparison) - bases empty - .250/.325/.414 - runners on - .252/.324/.454

It appears that Pivetta loses a lot more effectiveness pitching out of the stretch than the typical pitcher, which will tend to result in crooked numbers being posted by the opposition. With runners on, his K rate drops significantly, his BB rate goes up a bit, and the BABIP jumps up. I would guess his stuff just isn't as good out of the stretch compared to the wind-up.

[zambonir]

I don't feel like this one is on Pivetta though. Whatever happened to our manager who believed in the third-time-through-the-order penalty anyway? Though I guess we saw firsthand today that the relievers aren't necessarily better either.

And meanwhile Ken Giles has two saves in this series. Is he a "proven closer" or an example of how unreliable relievers are? (It's not like Lidge didn't go through the same thing, more than once).

[EDmuch]

I think this game proves we do need an upgraded bullpen. KImbrell, Britton, MIller and Allen are all available this offseason (although Allen is starting to look like he is cooked). I think it has beem a mistake to ride SD so heavily. Even Mariano Rivers was the set up man to John Wetteland for 2 years before he became a closer. And no, it would be folly to hitch a star to Neris again as a closer. If his split is not working, the rest of his arsenal is not enough to rely upon as a closer. I would agree, however, that Neris could be a part of a successful bullpen.

[schillingfan]

I think we have more than enough quality arms. It's the time of year they get tired. Kapler just needs to figure out how to use them.

[zambonir]

What yesterday's game shows is you don't need a closer if you can't hold a lead in the 8th. Certainly there is something to be said for a proven closer but those guys also got developed originally. If you've got the right young guy a Kimbrell, Jansen or Giles is just as good if not better than signing a pricey FA headed for decline. I think the trade market is probably a better way to go (Giles aside, they generally don't cost that much).

I'm not sure SD has actually been overused, we just assume so because he's struggled. Given his age, experience and starter pedigree it probably has been too much to ask of him, but who knows? Right now he just doesn't have it though. Fatigue might be part of it but he's gotten a lot of time off in July and August. He would be so good in that Andrew Miller type role though if he can do it, not pitching on consecutive days but capable of giving you two innings 50% of the time. That's what he looked like he was going to be when he first came up. So in that sense, sure, a different closer would be great. And adding another talented relief arm certainly wouldn't be a bad thing.

But this was a choice Klentak made. Let's ride these starters and reliever and see what they are made of. They might be good enough. If they're not, it's a learning experience and you've got more info with which to decide whether to upgrade this off-season.

[andyb]

I think SD was overused in the first 6 weeks after he came up. Lots of 2-inning outings and he has not thrown as hard or had as much movement since. He had never been used that way and they kept doing it until the results (and stuff) went South a bit. Remember he was a lightly used, oft-injured starter his career previous to this season.

He still has enough stuff to get outs if he has good command. He just does not seem to have the movement on his pitches to win without good command.

Chalk it up to a lesson learned. Have him rest the winter and then they can focus his training a bit more to be a high leverage reliever.

[Austinfan]

We're also talking a lot of kids who haven't pitched this much or under this much pressure.
It's part of the learning process.
And some of this just takes time, look at Nola two years ago v Nola now.
All three young starters need to perfect their mechanics, improve their command and keep working on their secondary pitches.

I think I'm more disappointed in Arrieta (too inconsistent) and Hunter (has the stuff but pitches like a green kid).
Neris is a head case thing, but if he regains confidence in his splitter, he's a legitimate closer.

[Philsmania]

I think SD was overused in the first 6 weeks after he came up. Lots of 2-inning outings and he has not thrown as hard or had as much movement since. He had never been used that way and they kept doing it until the results (and stuff) went South a bit. Remember he was a lightly used, oft-injured starter his career previous to this season.

He still has enough stuff to get outs if he has good command. He just does not seem to have the movement on his pitches to win without good command.

Chalk it up to a lesson learned. Have him rest the winter and then they can focus his training a bit more to be a high leverage reliever.

It also should be noted that he is now in his second or third time through the league. Other teams may be figuring some things out about him and adjusting. Time for him to counteradjust.

[andyb]

It also should be noted that he is now in his second or third time through the league. Other teams may be figuring some things out about him and adjusting. Time for him to counteradjust.

Definitely true also, though my main point was that his stuff is not the same as when he came up. He no longer is hitting 100 and the movement is less explosive. The stuff has actually been a bit better the last week or two and he has been beaten on poorly located pitches. He just got away with those pitches early on and I think it is reasonable to assume all those 2-inning outings early exacted a price.

He can still be decent at 98 instead of 100. Would be great to get a little more bite on his slider back regardless of velocity. I am guessing we'll do closer by committee the rest of the way. Neshak when the matchups are favorable. We'll also see lots of Hunter and Arano who do seem pretty durable (though Arano is young enough where again we should not abuse him). Hunter has only been average this year, but it does seem he can handle a bigger workload than anyone else out there without his stuff taking a hit.

[tom81]

We might see Neris in the closer role again too, he has been lights out this month.

[zambonir]

No reason not to see him in the 9th at some point. There's just no closer and, and there really hasn't been since Neris lost the job, even if Seranthony leads the team in 9th inning appearances.

[Austinfan]

Easy to forget that Neris was 20 for 20 last year to finish the season (or something like that) before he lost confidence in his splitter (and maybe had a tell they've fixed?).

[zambonir]

Yeah, it would be great if they fixed something. But his peripherals have gotten worse every year. Which doesn't bother me, a strikeout pitcher is also going to walk some guys, he just can't also give up extra-base hits. If memory serves Lidge did not allow a home run during his perfect season, but he certainly allowed baserunners.

That doesn't mean I'd be crazy about him pitching the 9th in a 3-2 NLDS game. But all closers eventually wear the goat horns in the playoffs (as Jansen did last year, while the Astros didn't even have one).

[Lucky_Beagle]

That doesn't mean I'd be crazy about him pitching the 9th in a 3-2 NLDS game. But all closers eventually wear the goat horns in the playoffs (as Jansen did last year, while the Astros didn't even have one).

at this point I would take any pitcher pitching in a NLDS game.....give me a lead and it can even be a lefty reliever! lol

[zambonir]

hear hear