GDT 8/2/19 Chicago White Sox (Nova) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Vargas)

[gmwannabe]

you're lucky Zamby you couldn't get to listen to it. i went to bed after gingery's ground out in the 9th. i didn't want to see them lose the game that they should have never lost. bases loaded and 1 out in the 7th and 8th and nothing. but i guess you really shouldn't expect anything when you have to send up a Sean Rodriguez type to pinch hit with the bases loaded. AND watch him take a called third strike. Braves or Nats would not have had to do that. there heart of the lineup would have produced a few runs. i would bet on it. despite all of the skullduggery that happened in extras, this game was lost much earlier than that. this team is just not good enough, at this time to contend.
gm

[andyb]

There was also the mistake of managing the pitching staff in the 9th inning as if you do not have a short staff. In a 1-run game you at least do a double switch to let Alvarez pitch an extra inning if he blows the save. I don't know when they knew that Suarez could not go that evening, but they already knew they did not have Neris. Frankly in the previous inning I would have thought about Pivetta going 2 to close out the game, just with the knowledge that you are short-staffed Friday and Saturday and saving the rest of the pen Friday would help on Saturday. It is not as if we have confidence in anyone as a closer at this point anyway.

One of Kapler's faults as a manager is the priority of short term thinking. Whatever the analytics say about a situation is more important than long term effects - whether that means a potential extra inning game or too many outings for a reliever.

[andyb]

One other thing I saw on another comment board that is an interesting question - given that the Phillies have gone to position players multiple times now, why aren't they better prepared. Specifically, why don't they have Haseley pitch on the side occasionally since he was a good college pitcher a mere 2 years ago (2017 he was one of UVA's top pitchers in the College World Series).

With the way baseball is changing I would think that having an emergency pitcher for real situations is something you would practice. And frankly I might have Vince be the emergency pinch hitter (over Arrieta) and fielder on a more regular basis too. He sure looks like he could be a 600 OPS hitter with more practice (career he is 225/250/267). Not saying he is Ohtani, but in a short bench we might want to use him a little more often to save our real pinch hitters for later.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Apparently Eflin did tell Kapler he was feeling some soreness in his right triceps, but that he could continue to pitch. So when Velasquez pinch ran for him, Kapler was acting upon that information. So I won’t condemn Kapler for his move in the bottom of the 13th. But it would be better if he didn’t use up his pitchers early on in a tight game that could go extras.

[julio]

One of Kapler's faults as a manager is the priority of short term thinking.

This. Kapler appears to still approach the game with the mindset of a player. Win now. Tonight. This inning. This AB.

Players (except to some extent catchers and pitchers) need this mindset. Focus on the current situation. Don't worry about later.

The manager needs to be balancing the immediate need - what's best in the moment - against the club's needs later in the game, and in the next couple of games. Moreover, as any manager in any business, he's responsible for "employee development" - putting his charges in positions where they can excel, protecting them from situations where they're likely to fail, paying attention to their workloads. This is no different than a manager in an office, with a dozen subordinates. It isn't just about getting to 5 pm today; it's about maximizing the unit's productivity on an ongoing basis.

And the GM? He has to balance the current staffing - do we have the people to achieve our goals in place now? - with longer-term concerns and needs.

This is pretty basic management... and as of now, Kapler, IMHO, still focuses too much on right now.

He was right in the post-game. It was a crap situation. But he helped get them into that situation.

[Austinfan]

I think that's unfair to Kapler.

Given his bullpen situation (and he's not going to risk injury to Suarez or Eflin right now, that would indeed be a total disaster), he was right to play for the win rather than risk the game going deep into extra innings. If he keeps Eflin in the game and he's injured, oh boy.

Fact is, the hitters got overeager and blew numerous opportunities to win the game, in which case Kapler would have made the right moves. And the Phillies were better off losing than over pitching their few remaining RPs. Though Quinn over Haseley raises eyebrows, they may have felt that's too much to ask of Haseley right now (and they can't afford to hurt him until Dickinson is healthy, and given Quinn was throwing in the upper 70s, wonder if he was instructed not to throw hard?).

They've used most of the LHV young RPs, and it was obvious that while talented, pitchers like Hammer and Garcia aren't ready for the Show and need to stay where they are the rest of the season. Same with other possibilities like Dohy. And Klentak has already scoured the waiver wire and low cost trades (Morin, Parker). So Kapler really has to nursemaid his current pitching staff.

Sometimes crap happens: SD, Arano, Morgan, Robertson, Hunter, Neshak, Ramos - no one could have predicted that the entire bullpen other than Neris, Alvarez and Nicascio would be on IR by August.

[LoneStarPhan]

It’s easy to critique the manager, but really the loss rests on bad offense. They missed many chances to add runs in the first eight innings, then six innings where a run was a walk off win. They failed, especially the heart of the offense. It was especially frustrating over the extra innings when the Sox used three pitchers with high ERAs for two innings each. Yes, many factors hurt but the extremely poor offense kept them from winning until the pitching final gave out.

[andyb]

I know it turned out that Velazquez is our best defensive outfielder, but I wonder if it ever crossed Kapler's mind to put Harper in LF against all the right-handed hitters. This was discussed and tried in Spring Training. And we had a pitcher throwing 78 mph so it was not rocket science to think that every ball was going to be pulled. Just a thought.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

One of Kapler's faults as a manager is the priority of short term thinking

While I tend to agree with this, there was also the game on Friday night versus the Braves - trailing 5-1 at the end of 5 innings, Kapler went to the back of the bullpen (Irvin and Morin), saving the more trusted arms for the games on Saturday and Sunday. I felt Kapler gave up on this game too early.

It’s easy to critique the manager, but really the loss rests on bad offense.

While I'm no fan of Kapler, I think this gets to the core of the issue. This team was built to outscore our opponents more so than dominate them with our pitching. We should win a game against a second division team when we hold them to 3 runs through 9 innings. 28 men left on base last night overall for the Phillies. Multiple chances to build on the lead in the late innings that were not cashed in on.

[Patchmk88]

I know it turned out that Velazquez is our best defensive outfielder, but I wonder if it ever crossed Kapler's mind to put Harper in LF against all the right-handed hitters. This was discussed and tried in Spring Training. And we had a pitcher throwing 78 mph so it was not rocket science to think that every ball was going to be pulled. Just a thought.

I was telling my family this while watching the game. It worked out ok, but realistically for righties Harper should have been moved to LF.

[Austinfan]

I don't know, Velasquez might be a better defensive OF than Harper!
Two perfect throws to the plate and a great catch.

[zambonir]

This. Kapler appears to still approach the game with the mindset of a player. Win now. Tonight. This inning. This AB.

But from a purely analytics perspective, should you ever manage for an 11th or 13th inning that's never going to come? There was a 100% chance that the Phillies needed to win that game in the 9th inning, and something in the match-ups told them Alvarez had the much greater chance of getting the final outs, in which case it's all moot. At that point in the game, the Phillies had a generic win probability of 84% (it was 91% before the first baserunner). How much do you manage for that 16%, let alone what was probably a low single-digit outcome (the combination of the blown save and lengthy extra-innings), as opposed to following your process?

Easy for us to say after the fact. I actually wish the Phillies would improve the amount of information we have as fans, via the broadcast team. I realize there is a trade secret component, and also the broadcast team are basically ignoramuses, but in this day and age, with immediate information available at all times, there is no reason that the broadcast shouldn't have been talking about the fact that VV threw a bullpen yesterday (and therefore wasn't available to pitch), and they could have at least had an inkling that Suarez was unavailable. Also not hard to guess Eflin wasn't able to go longer given he's been a physical wreck for a month.

Beyond that, I would have liked a broadcast team that could try and explain the logic behind PR-ing VV, even it it's dead wrong. Not just two people whose actual job is to know and explain things going "this doesn't make any sense" like they don't know anything more than we do!

[BostonRoss]

I think it’s fair to criticize Kapler for not managing early on as if he had a short bullpen. And it’s also fair to question pinch running for Eflin with two outs knowing he was out of pitchers.

But Kapler’s strategic shortcomings are not a big factor in the number of games won this season.

That said, he hasn’t shown he is a good leader. I’d fire him if the Phillies don’t finish strong.

[zambonir]

What I found interesting, not that we'd know if they felt otherwise (nor do we really know what kind of leader he is behind the scenes anyway), is the clubhouse seemed pretty enthused and excited by last night's game. If I'm a player, I like that he aggressively tried to win, and I like that he protected Eflin, and of course they all love that a pitcher got to run and play LF though that's less fun if he gets hurt (I remember last year VV made a baserunning blunder too). That's also why your 25th man/utility guy pitches instead of your most promising rookie, even if he was a former pitcher. And they know as hitters they are the ones who failed to win the game. Honestly if he gets fired for poor leadership it will be because he's too much of a player's manager a la Charlie, and the next guy will be less of a buddy.

[BostonRoss]

I don’t know what kind of leader Kapler is, but I don’t see anything that indicates he is a good one. If he is getting more out of his players than someone else could, or he was putting them in the best position to succeed, I would think that at least some players would be improving compared to what they’ve done under other managers. It seems that the Phillies are a better team than before Kapler because they have better players.