GDT 6/20/23 Atlanta Braves (Strider) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Suárez, R)

[zambonir]

Thomson said Alvarado, Marte and Strahm were all down, but why?

[mdougherty12]

It seemed a little weird to me when Marte pitched the ninth in a 3-1 game Sunday afternoon, too.

[zambonir]

Well yeah but in that one I believe Kimbrel and Soto had just pitched two straight days and Strahm and Alvarado had the earlier innings. And Vasquez is a lefty. But tonight came after an off-day.

Still, Alvarado's recently off the IL and Strahm is obviously overused so maybe they made a decision to give them 48 full hours. Ditto Marte after pitching two games in a row. The plan was probably Hoffman in the 7th and then Soto and Kimbrel and Vasquez to finish (or pitch the 10th) but once it flipped to a losing game Soto and Kimbrel were off the table unless it got tied.

[LoneStarPhan]

We will see how the Phillies do tomorrow. A win, and things will look much better.

[gmwannabe]

you're right ATown. The Phils lineup is just not as good as the Braves. The Braves are too good. When you lose an All Star SS and can plug in a starter that hits .341, that's just too good. their 2nd Baseman has 17 homers! Does Turner have any options left? I just hope they don't get swept these next 5 games.
gm

[andyb]

I don’t understand why this guy is the man you choose late in a tie game.

Totally agree (was watching at home about a half hour behind and not on the thread). I don't know why you don't go with at least Soto or even Marte here since they have been pitching well of late. Tie game in the 7th inning against the team you need to beat. I am going with at least the medium leverage guys here though I understand not going with Alvarado and Kimbrel yet.

[Austinfan]

How many of their starters did they develop v buy?
Maybe we should start poaching their scouts?

[zambonir]

Thomson said Marte wasn't available (pitched two games in a row, but also had a day off). Alvarado also wasn't available. Nor Strahm. But honestly if Thomson was willing to hand Marte a one-run 9th inning it is no crazier to hand Hoffman that spot, neither of them are guys who are supposed to pitch high-leverage on paper. We also don't know what else went into the decision in terms of the analytics/match-ups. They must have liked him against a particular batter in terms of his stuff/tunneling etc. But if that batter was Acuna, they were wrong. Sometimes it happens. And of course he blew it by walking the first batter (but Soto might have done that too).

[zambonir]

We tried that already he ran all our drafts from 2016 to 2019. They just forgot he hadn't done domestic for years.

[BaseballCat]

Braves: 4 hitters and starter home grown
Phils: 2 hitters and starter home grown

Have not looked at rest of the team, but that is last nights starters. It would be great if we could develop half our team via the draft or international sources

[Philsmania]

I was at last night's game as well. They had their chances and left three runners in scoring position with less than two out early in the game. And, the bullpen faltered. They had their chances and could have won that game.

At least the Marlins lost. Lost in all the buzz about the Reds' ten game winning streak is that the Giants have won nine straight and will probably soon be the top wildcard.

[zambonir]

Yeah if you're a fan of the Pythagorean Giants are the second-best team in the NL and Reds and Marlins aren't for real (but neither are the Phillies. Yet) and Cubs and Padres are still looming.

[Austinfan]

Watching Ranger v Nola, Ranger must have some spin or deception thing, b/c the same pitches/location that gets Nola rocked, Ranger often gets weak contact or a whiff. They have similar velocity and portfolio of pitches (Nola has a better two seamer), yet Ranger just seems more effective.

[Callison]

I thought to myself when I saw Hoffman come in, he's coming off of one good inning in Oakland and we're tied with the team we have to beat which is full of really good hitters. Why isn't there SOMEBODY stronger??? IT'S THE BRAVES!!! You may never see a pitcher hand the game to the other team any faster. But that wasn't enough. He got sent back out there for another out.

The Phils need to do some work now to improve the relief staff. There's almost no talent in the bottom third and these guys keep getting sent out there. But the Phils WANT to hang on to these guys... WASS.

Regarding gm's and others' observations that the Braves are statistically the better team, good analysis. But the Phils are only playing at some 75% of their ability. It's the Braves' time right now, but it might be the Phils' time after a while.

[zambonir]

This says it all about the Braves

At their lowest point, on June 2, the Phillies were 25-32 and eight games out of first place. Then they went on a 13-2 roll, and when the week began, they were ... eight games out of first place.

Phillies’ momentum comes to a halt in 4-2 loss to Braves

I think this does a good job explaining why Hoffman was at least a defensible choice there. He just didn't get it done and was really doomed from the first batter, since the lefty was gong to come up next. But - and this would be germane to the Song question too - if Thomson is going to manage the pen the way he does (in terms of heavier workloads and necessary off days) there can't be an unpitchable guy at the bottom of the pen (even if he pitched okay last night once it didn't really matter).

How odd roster management came back to bite Phillies in Tuesday’s loss to Braves...

[Callison]

< The front office deserves a lot of credit for building that depth, but they also deserve blame for failing to take full advantage of it. >

THIS!

[andyb]

Hoffman has been more 96 than 98 lately. It is not just using him there. It is that he has not been especially good of late.

Soto's outings over the weekend I think were both 2 out outings. He should have been more rested and is simply a little bit better. I know what Thomson was thinking. I just disagree. And the other factor is that Bellatti is pitching well and clearly a better option than Covey. I don't know if Covey has compromising pictures on somebody, but if we are not going to use him in a bulk role then he should not be on the staff. His stuff is not that good that it would kill them if he gets claimed on waivers.

[Sabin]

But, we matched up with them well most of last season, beat them in the playoffs, and had a nice four-game split in Atlanta just a few weeks ago.

Just because a team may be better doesn't mean you don't match up well and/or beat them on occasion. The Phillies lineup doesn't match up to that of the Braves on paper, nor is anyone currently hitting significantly above what their season numbers reflect (Schwarber maybe). This translated to several missed opportunities versus a good SP in Strider with RISP, whereas the Braves' bats were eventually able to come through against a couple of mediocre pieces of the Phillies bullpen.

It's not that they can't (or won't) beat the Braves, but with Hoskins out, Harper and Turner tepid at the plate, and no one other than Schwarber flashing hot right now, the advantage is with Atlanta.

[BostonRoss]

It's funny that Covey was the best reliever last night.

[allentown]

How many of their starters did they develop v buy?
Maybe we should start poaching their scouts?

The biggest gap to me is in the home-grown position players from Latin America. Ron Acuna and Ozzie Albies, both signed out of LA by Braves, both in Atlanta at age 20, both actually OPS above .800 not just this year (although some down years in between) but in their age 20 rookie season. Where are our comparables? The LA position players we get excited about don't even get out of A-ball at that age and almost always flame out short of reaching Philly. Most of the LA guys we get excited about are skinny and don't develop power. Here are the Braves two LA signees atop their lineup with SLG greater than .500.

I'll expand that to the draft. We have Nola and Suarez in our rotation. As mentioned on another thread, we also have Dominguez in the pen -- all have been plus. Not bad, certainly could be better. The position player side is just bad. Especially in LA, we have spent vastly more on position players than on pitchers and have basically come up empty. If we just can't do LA positon players, we should refocus our $ on pitching. It is sad to read that our FSL rookie league pitching is bad. Even in the draft, I think our results say we should shift the budget more toward pitching. Bohm and Stott are what we have to show for focusing $ on hitting.