GDT 6/10/21 Atlanta Braves (Anderson) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler)

[andyb]

And if they non-tendered and re-signed him for $7 or or 8 million they would be saving cash but raising his AAV.

Not sure about that because the option year was not included in the original AAV calculation. Since one cannot calculate AAV retroactively for luxury tax payments, I think the AAV would become a new 1-year calculation of the option amount ($11.5 million) minus the buyout ($2.5 million), so $9 million net on the next year AAV. The buyout is already part of the current year (and past year) AAV calculation.

[zambonir]

Oh, right.

That still seems like a pretty good reason to just exercise the option though. Only costs you $9 million in real money as well as CBT money. Doesn't seem worth the risk or hassle to try and save $1-2 million, which may not even happen (if he continues to play well this year he could even ask for an arbitration raise). If they non-tender him, they are probably just moving on.

Of course this also becomes a different conversation if they're selling at the deadline.

[andyb]

If Odubel continues to have decent defensive stats (and the scouts agree), I think there is a pretty good chance they keep him for a year assuming everything is good in the clubhouse personality-wise.

The biggest problem with Odubel the last couple of years was his defense slipping and he appears to have gotten in better shape and reversed that. Plus, some of the in-house candidates for the job next year are no longer candidates. I can't imagine Haseley rebuilding himself to the point where he could be seen as a starter next year. Quinn is not going to be a candidate even if they keep him as a cheap first year arbitration player (he can't get much more than a million with his history). And Muzziotti still has not played.

Odubel as a bridge to Rojas or Yhoswar Garcia in a couple of years. I can't believe I just wrote that, but it is at least a possibility now. We are not going to sign a free agent for less than $9 million that is likely to be better (see JBJ 2021).

[zambonir]

And you didn't even mention Moniak, never mind that he's apparently not a CF.

If the team actually has playoff aspirations next year you certainly can't write in Haseley or Moniak as a starter, nor Kingery atm. If Bohm is our LF, Haseley or Moniak maybe fit on the bench (but not both of them). If not it's easier to go get a LF than a CF.

I think Quinn is a non-tender and may even have to settle for minor league deal, much like Adam Morgan this year (even if Morgan was considerably more expensive as an arbitration player).

[tom81]

The thing that no one mentions about Herrera’s contract is that the Phillies also have an option for his 2023 year. This option only had value if they pick up his 2022 option. This adds some value to his 2022 option.

[zambonir]

That's true, but the 2023 option also has risk. He'll be 31 and I don't think he'd get what that year pays ($12.5 million) on the open market. 31 is where Didi is right now, and when Cutch stopped playing CF. Buyout is easy though ($1 million).

We're comparing him to JBJ who makes $12 million AAV but this is the deal Bradley actually had to take coming off a good 2020:

2021: $3 million, with $3.5 million deferred
2022 $9.5 million player option, $3 million plus $6.5 million deferred.
Or $6.5 million buyout. If he takes the option, then...
2023 $12 million mutual option with $8 million buyout

The Phillies are so short on talent they likely have to keep him but realistically his trade or FA value should they decide to move on is going to be minimal.