GDT 5/6/19 Philadelphia Phillies (Velasquez) @ St. Louis Cardinals (Mikolas)

[LoneStarPhan]

Good news in the standings: Only NL East team to win tonight is Miami, who beat the Cubs. Phillies, Braves, Mets, and Nationals all lose, so the top of the standings in the NL East stay the same.

[kmc1019]

The NL East is mediocre. How the Phillies play against the likes of St Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee, and the Dodgers will be the true measure of this team.

[Austinfan]

Wonder when the patience will run out with Velasquez?

Two HRs off 95+ FBs, just shows how overrated velocity is when you don't have command, ML hitters routinely hit 95+ FBs (see SD this year). And I don't think Velasquez will ever have command, it may be as innate as velocity (body control, ability to repeat your mechanics). And he doesn't have the secondary pitch to set up his FB.

It's also why I was skeptical of Kilome, and not sure about Medina and Morales.
Sometimes you can tweak a delivery and do wonders, but mostly when a guy struggles with location he always struggles with location.

[andyb]

It is not like the Phillies have any better or obvious solutions. Eflin and Eickhoff both have significant flaws that question whether their performance is sustainable. Pivetta has already been demoted. It is not the worst thing to have those 4 pitchers rotate in the last 3 stops going with the hot hand.

And I see no reason to question all those other pitchers because of supposed "command" issues. They have all been on relatively aggressive promotion schedules. Medina is athletic and can repeat his delivery (which VV can also.) Morales is pitching pretty well at Lakewood as a teenager (bad ERA but 13+ K/9). Don't gush about pitchers at that level who are 3+ years older and then complain about command with teenagers. Pitchers with more stuff need less command.

VV last night needed to listen to his catcher. He really was not missing spots too badly till he got tired at the end. The Phillies may very well end up using an option on him, but also know he is as good as Eflin and Eickhoff even with the bad outings.

[zambonir]

I was reading this article last night and am actually surprised the Phillies haven't jumped on the "opener" trend. Do you think the media scrutiny and fan skepticism would just to be too great (when it's already high enough for not having a closer)?

The Rays continue to prove why they're MLB's boldest team

[tom81]

The Phillies may very well end up using an option on him, but also know he is as good as Eflin and Eickhoff even with the bad outings

By what measure besides strikeouts is he as good now as Eflin? Even the measurements that weight strikeouts heavily like FIP has Eflin better this year. And that also includes a 4 inning 6 ER outing for Eflin.

[andyb]

By what measure besides strikeouts is he as good now as Eflin? Even the measurements that weight strikeouts heavily like FIP has Eflin better this year. And that also includes a 4 inning 6 ER outing for Eflin.

Look beyond the small sample of the early season (and VV's ERA was lower before the last start). They were roughly equal all last year. VV has better stuff. Eflin uses fewer pitches and can go deeper in games.

In terms of what one could reasonably expect in the future their value at the moment is roughly equal. Strikeouts are also not just a stat. They are an indication that one pitcher could be better because they miss more bats and have fewer balls in play.

Everyone over-reacts to the last few starts. The entire picture is much more balanced between the two. Pivetta might still have the highest ceiling of all 3 of them and he is in the minors. It is also not a competition between the three. We need all of them to be good. Eickhoff is the guy where you look at his stuff and suspect it is not sustainable.

[julio]

By what measure besides strikeouts is he as good now as Eflin? Even the measurements that weight strikeouts heavily like FIP has Eflin better this year. And that also includes a 4 inning 6 ER outing for Eflin.

Look beyond the small sample of the early season (and VV's ERA was lower before the last start). They were roughly equal all last year. VV has better stuff. Eflin uses fewer pitches and can go deeper in games.

In terms of what one could reasonably expect in the future their value at the moment is roughly equal. Strikeouts are also not just a stat. They are an indication that one pitcher could be better because they miss more bats and have fewer balls in play.

Everyone over-reacts to the last few starts. The entire picture is much more balanced between the two. Pivetta might still have the highest ceiling of all 3 of them and he is in the minors. It is also not a competition between the three. We need all of them to be good. Eickhoff is the guy where you look at his stuff and suspect it is not sustainable.

andyb - You are assuming that Eflin is the same pitcher he was last season - essentially that he was fully recovered from his off-season knee surgeries last season. That may be a valid assumption, or it may not be.

It is certainly the "cautious" assumption - e.g., that whatever benefit there was from correcting his congenital issues was fully realized in 2018, and there's no particular reason to anticipate further improvement resulting from the surgery.

But we don't know. Eflin's physical history is so unusual that we cannot assume a "typical" progression. We simply don't know - but the early returns in 2019 (yes, SSS) are...suggestive, IMHO.

One thing about Eflin vs. Velasquez that I think is pretty clear: At this point in time, Eflin is making better use of his abilities. Eflin is demonstrating that he knows "how to pitch," given his tools. Velasquez is still fighting with himself, and with his catcher. Vinnie is not in control of the mental game. Because of that, he gets lit up.

I agree that Velasquez has better stuff, and theoretically a higher ceiling. I'm not at all sure, at this point, that he has the makeup of a starting pitcher.

Maybe... maybe what Velasquez needs is to be traded to a non-contending club, for Jason Grimsley, and have some Cy Young winner read him the riot act, so perhaps he'll mature a bit as a pitcher... if you know what I mean.

[andyb]

It is all those unknowns though that make their future probability of success roughly equal. VV has had injury issues too. We've just seen lots of low strikeout pitchers not have long run success. I like Eflin. I just don't like him better than Velasquez.

[tom81]

Another reason I like Eflin's upside more is that he is almost 2 full years younger than Velasquez. He is not as likely to not be at his peak at age 25 then Velasquez is at age 27.

[Austinfan]

Velasquez has a better FB than Eflin, but his overall portfolio of pitches is inferior. And his command sucks - leaves too many 95 FBs in the sweet zone.
Eflin has continued to develop whereas Velasquez has flatlined.
Strikeouts have become grossly overrated, especially for SP, where they tend to drive up pitch counts.
As data gets more sophisticated, the value of pitching to weak contact has grown.

Eickhoff is for real, his slider has taken his game up a notch, and he was throwing 90-91 yesterday.
He doesn't need more velocity than that with two plus secondary pitches.
He's a better pitcher than he was 2-3 years ago, yes it's a SSS but the eyeball can see it.

Arrieta is the poster boy for command or lack of such, he has great movement but unlike Nola, struggles with command on a regular basis - I think he should consider trading a tad bit of velocity on his two seamer for better location.