GDT 5/4/25 Arizona Diamondbacks (Rodriguez, Ed) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Suárez, R)

[Philsmania]

Phillies are 2-4 in extra innings this season. Hard to win extra inning games when your bullpen isn't very good. Speaking of which, just when it looks like Romano and Ross are coming around, Alvarado and Strahm now seem to be springing leaks.

But, as frustrating as it is not complete the sweeps and have a 7-0 homestand, we managed to cut the Mets' divisional lead in half to 2.5 games during the homestand.

[zambonir]

Is this really true? That the front office dictates to Thomson who he can pitch and for long each game?

I mean, it's not an order/mandate. You still have to adjust to the game situation. But the analytics department and the two pitching coaches have a lot more to do with the game plan each day, and especially what sort of availability they have (how long, or at all), than Thomson does. And the pitchers know before the game which pockets of the line-up and what possible innings they are likely to be in, and for how long, and with match-up plans that go far beyond L/R these days. It can never go exactly to script of course, unless they are all throwing perfect innings. But I think it's pretty rare, once the starter is out and the first man has come in unexpectedly, that Thomson is thinking, "can I leave this guy in for one more inning?" versus already knowing who the next guy is.

Of course he probably wouldn't have even used these exact pitchers in that order if it had still been 7-1 instead of 7-4 when Strahm entered, though they didn't really have options to eat innings in a loss given how guys had been used and with only 7 arms.

I think the main issue is still the current depth. Strahm is good enough to get guys out from both sides and go longer but he's been essentially the #2 reliever for the most part. Alvarado isn't supposed to be the closer either (only sometimes). Ross is mean to be a middle reliever but has been needed in bigger spots.

I also don't get too worked up about extra inning games. It's fake baseball and most managers don't save their best relievers for 10th innings that may never happen. Last year it was often Soto or Ruiz (before he was proven). Last night it shouldn't have been Alvarado but after that comeback they hoped to squeeze more out of him. If Ranger had pitched longer one more guy would have been available.

[zambonir]

Per today's Athletic story Walker had also already thrown his bullpen session on Sunday morning which seems like poor planning. But he still would have been the next (and last) pitcher.

[mdougherty12]

Is this really true? That the front office dictates to Thomson who he can pitch and for long each game?

I don't think we have any way of knowing exactly how the sausage is made with the Phillies specifically, but it seems clear that across MLB in-game decisions are largely driven by front office analytics and field coaching staffs have much less autonomy than the average fan expects.

The Athletic ran an interview with Joe Maddon recently that touches on these issues:

Joe Maddon thinks Major League Baseball has issues. You might find them...

[andyb]

This illustrates the difficulty of going to a 6-man rotation which leaves the bullpen short one reliever. While the last reliever ideally does not pitch that much, short outings from starters seem to happen just as often in a 6-man rotation as a 5-man rotation. I think I just prefer the 5 with the extra flexibility involved. It is up to the coaching staff to get someone like Walker ready for the role and even to re-think all the 1-inning outings that are typical in today's game.

Ross had a rare back to back yesterday where he pitched well. Hopefully this is a sign of a pitcher getting acclimated to his role.

[zambonir]

As the story notes, it's ironic that Maddon has become a critic of the thing he helped invent. I know his take is that it's gone too far, but I think what really matters is, you need the manager and the FO to be on the page, and it still has to be collaborative. Obviously Maddon's GM is still doing what he's always done very successfully in Los Angeles, which is also why Dave Roberts' job has rarely been in danger even when they weren't winning championships. Because most of the stuff fans want his head for was completely approved, if not actively initiated, by his bosses.

I think for the Phillies, the assistant pitching coach (now Mark Lowy) and the bench coach (Calitri) are the conduits between the manager/pitching coach and the analytics people, at least on a daily/pre-game basis. The days of Charlie Manuel turning to Pete Mackanin to decide whether to bunt or steal or pinch-hit in the dugout are long gone. Now the numbers decide, and pitching's no different. Sometimes the manager overrules (we've seen Thomson leave in hitters in obvious PH situations just as often as he makes the move) and lots of times you still have to improvise (but there's always a Plan A, B and C too).

Took a long time for the Phillies to get to this point!

[bkeich]

This illustrates the difficulty of going to a 6-man rotation which leaves the bullpen short one reliever. While the last reliever ideally does not pitch that much, short outings from starters seem to happen just as often in a 6-man rotation as a 5-man rotation. I think I just prefer the 5 with the extra flexibility involved. It is up to the coaching staff to get someone like Walker ready for the role and even to re-think all the 1-inning outings that are typical in today's game.

Ross had a rare back to back yesterday where he pitched well. Hopefully this is a sign of a pitcher getting acclimated to his role.

But it demonstrates the strength of the 6 man rotation with tandem starters. Stick to 5 games but give the bullpen a short or no inning game every 5. (It can always not work, but often you can get 8-9 innings out of the tandem)

[zambonir]

But it demonstrates the strength of the 6 man rotation with tandem starters. Stick to 5 games but give the bullpen a short or no inning game every 5. (It can always not work, but often you can get 8-9 innings out of the tandem)

Based on what evidence? Not many teams doing six-mans consistently (if any) let alone this way with a demonstrable record of getting 8 or 9 from them. There is probably more data of people succeeding with de facto bullpen games (opener, fringe starter for 3-4 innings, then good match-up relievers).

[BostonRoss]

I am wondering whether it would have been better to start Wheeler yesterday on regular rest and start Ranger tomorrow given the well-used bullpen over the past several days. Wheeler was very likely to go longer than Ranger could (and much longer than ranger ended up going), leaving fewer innings for the pen to cover. The entire bullpen would then have had a day off before Ranger's start.

[bkeich]

But it demonstrates the strength of the 6 man rotation with tandem starters. Stick to 5 games but give the bullpen a short or no inning game every 5. (It can always not work, but often you can get 8-9 innings out of the tandem)

Based on what evidence? Not many teams doing six-mans consistently (if any) let alone this way with a demonstrable record of getting 8 or 9 from them. There is probably more data of people succeeding with de facto bullpen games (opener, fringe starter for 3-4 innings, then good match-up relievers).

Yes, but bullpen games crush the bullpen. Unless there is an off day right after it the next game or two are problematic.

I was just speaking of innings and bullpen usage. My point was that using a tandem starters would often be an off day (or nearly) for the bullpen. Of course sometimes you don’t get the 4-5 innings out of one of the guys, but I would guess that more than half the time you will.

Tandem games are a way to have a 6 man rotation, so getting innings out of that 13th pitcher even though you lose a reliever.

Think of it this way, is it better to go 15 IP with your bullpen in 5 games with 8 relievers (3 IP per game for 5) or 13 IP with 7 (3IP for 4 and then 1 IP in the tandem game). Those of course would just be averages and would vary extensively.

Keep in mind that 8th reliever is your worst pitcher. If you have a deep, strong bullpen then I see an argument against tandem starters, but we have real issues with bullpen depth and have a viable 6th starter (until an injury happens).

Additionally, having that Tandem guy around always allow the team to just throw him out there in extra innings and not crush the bullpen.

[andyb]

I just don't think the tandem works in the majors as well as the minors. Rarely does the second pitcher go 3 innings. Major league teams will usually use their setup and closer relievers situationally which limits the second pitcher. So if you are only getting 2 innings out of a reliever every 5 games, that is 64 innings. Maybe you get a bit more, but I would prefer my 2-inning reliever to pitch 80-90 innings total. If you don't do that the innings just don't work well for the rest of the bullpen.

Starters only going 5 innings mean you want multiple 2-inning relievers in the bullpen who can pitch every 3 days, not 5.

[zambonir]

This just seems very theoretical. Nobody does it.

Seems like the real question right now is how to use Walker. And also whether Hernandez is a good use of the 8 spot since he does not give you length and can't be optioned. It will be interesting to see if they keep him over Ruiz but I doubt it?

[bkeich]

This just seems very theoretical. Nobody does it.

Seems like the real question right now is how to use Walker. And also whether Hernandez is a good use of the 8 spot since he does not give you length and can't be optioned. It will be interesting to see if they keep him over Ruiz but I doubt it?

Absolutely true, it is rarely used. I think Tampa did it for awhile a few years ago, but it is very rare I agree.

I was just thinking of a way to keep Walker stretched out. Moving him to the pen and using him 2-3 times a week for an inning is wasting a stretched out pitcher to me.

I admit I am a fan of the idea of Tandem Starts. I think it is the next evolution of pitching management, but we will see.

My thoughts were two fold, to keep Walker easily available to bounce back to the “top 5” when an injury happens and also to reduce the load on the bullpen we are getting because the bottom of our bullpen has not performed.

It is certainly theoretical, you are correct.

[zambonir]

the bottom of our bullpen has not performed.

The bottom of the bullpen has performed well enough. Hernandez has had scoreless innings four out of his last five outings and in the other he gave up two runs in a 7-0 game. Phillies won four of those games too. His last bad outing was when it was 9-1 and he made it 9-4. But that's what #8 guys do sometimes.

Banks and Ross have also been fine. The problem is Ruiz hasn't been a 5 and Romano and Kerkering have struggled as two of the ostensible Top 4, so now the bottom guys are being asked to do more, and they're thin at RHP. They are going to need Walker to be a real reliever, whether as a two-inning guy or higher leverage one-inning guy, since there is nobody else in AAA who is necessarily better. They will just have to decide whether to keep Ruiz or Hernandez when the former comes off the IL.

[bkeich]

the bottom of our bullpen has not performed.

The bottom of the bullpen has performed well enough. Hernandez has had scoreless innings four out of his last five outings and in the other he gave up two runs in a 7-0 game. Phillies won four of those games too. His last bad outing was when it was 9-1 and he made it 9-4. But that's what #8 guys do sometimes.

Banks and Ross have also been fine. The problem is Ruiz hasn't been a 5 and Romano and Kerkering have struggled as two of the ostensible Top 4, so now the bottom guys are being asked to do more, and they're thin at RHP. They are going to need Walker to be a real reliever, whether as a two-inning guy or higher leverage one-inning guy, since there is nobody else in AAA who is necessarily better. They will just have to decide whether to keep Ruiz or Hernandez when the former comes off the IL.

Well, by bottom of the bullpen I meant the guys that were not doing well. I wasn’t considering what we thought their ranking in the bullpen hierarchy is/was. What I meant is we have multiple relievers that have not performed well so far, and having a Tandem Starter would help relieve that by (hopefully) having every 5th game be a bit off all off day for the pen.

[zambonir]

Gotcha. Just not sure it would actually work out that way. You'd probably want your second tandem guy to enter in the 4th inning most of the time unless it's been a perfect game. Like, if you were facing the Mets with Suarez as the opener you'd probably want Walker to face the RH heart of their order the second time, and you'd still have relievers in the 7-8-9 or at least two innings. And if either pitcher has a poor outing you also need 2-3 innings from relievers. And if they have a good enough outing to go 5 or 6 innings you don't need the tandem, per se, especially if they are not as effective in that role as relievers.

The real solution, aside from a few of these relievers improving, is for the offense to improve. The stress on the pen has been from all the close games. The rotation has been good. If Walker can actually be a good reliever I think that helps the team more than if he's a 6th starter.

[andyb]

Tandem starts where it was a true tandem of 2 guys splitting 6-7 innings could be the analytics future if someone really tried it. It probably works much more with a 4 man rotation though. Getting pitchers 40 3-4 inning outings would get pitchers in the 140 inning range for the season without ever facing a lineup for the 3rd time.

It probably would be somebody like the Rays or A's with a bunch of young pitchers that would try that. An established team like the Phillies with 4 or 5 starters that could give you 180 decent innings is not the platform to experiment.