23 Philadelphia Phillies (Covey) @ Atlanta Braves (Strider)

Thommo 2023-05-29 05:13:09 UTC #121

You can say that again! I don't even remember Covey with the Dodgers ( I'm a Dodger fan)
There is a shortage of starting pitching particularly in the National League, but geeze it's getting bad if you feel you have to start an unproven arm on a nationally televised game. It's embarrassing!

andyb 2023-05-29 12:15:35 UTC #122

I disagree with the assessment that Covey was unproven. He has 46 starts now. And a 6.60 ERA. He is definitely proven.

zambonir 2023-05-29 12:26:41 UTC #123

Covey played one game for the Dodgers. Two runs, four innings, and then they had someone better to use the roster spot on. The Phillies apparently did not (on the 40 or overall) at the time they needed him. They still might not now. It's good Sanchez seems to be settling in a little but he's still a AAA pitcher with a current 5.40 ERA and a major league pitcher with a career 5.53 ERA. And all the other Pigs have similar numbers.

At least they didn't actually sign Covey in the off-season like they did Matt Moore, the last washed-up pitcher the Phillies plucked from Asia and actually made the fifth starter. And he wound up becoming a good reliever!

These Covey starts were still bullpen games (one by design one by force!) and I'm afraid that is still what we are looking at for seven weeks, barring a dice roll on McGarry. There's just not pitching to trade for. Whether it's Sanchez or Nick Nelson or Hoffman it will just be a four-inning guy.

Austinfan 2023-05-29 12:37:48 UTC #124

Most of the staff has been as expected, Marte is a fringe RP and he's pitched better since returning, Nelson will return soon, Alvarado. Kimbrel has regained his velo, SD, Brogdon, Strahm, Soto, Belatti is settling back in, Vasquez, Hoffman. The bullpen is fine.

Problem is Nola is pitching like a #3, Walker has shown flashes the last few starts, but a bad start.Ranger is just rounding into shape, Falter faltered, maybe Sanchez can fill in. Nola, Ranger, Walker and Sanchez should be better than what they threw out there the first 50 games.

However, the pitching staff wasn't supposed to carry the team, the only hitters putting up good numbers are Harper, Castellanos, and Marsh. Harper is DH, Castellanos is so bad in the field it negates his rebound, and the rest are meh at the plate. Average hitting and bad defense is not a good combo, they may have to eat two years of Schwarber - he's a defensive black hole who'd have to hit like last season to have value.

zambonir 2023-05-29 12:37:55 UTC #125

Worth noting that Sanchez's six innings last night wasn't even as a starter. Two other relievers (including Ortiz) in the first and second innings.

Gelb reckons they can also start messing with the rotation and skipping starts, which Dombrowski conforms. Fifth starter could face Washington and Oakland two of the next three times.

gmwannabe 2023-05-29 13:53:29 UTC #126

What an embarrassing attempt. They will always go into the week with at least one loss before games are played. I'd rather see one of the young kids come up and get experience. hell with getting the clock started. that was very poor and they won;t have much to bring up. that is a testament of previous poor drafting, although I guess Howard was supposed to be counted on by now.
gm

zambonir 2023-05-29 14:23:15 UTC #127

Nobody's clock is being slowed, they're just not ready. Painter hurt, McGarry was also hurt, Abel is still raw (and young.) Now that McGarry isn't hurt, and given his age, he's closest.

In the link above Dombrowski suggests Painter will pitch in MLB by August 1 but of course he's going to maintain that position as he navigates the trade market. Since you only need four starters in the playoffs maybe that - or doing another modest deal like they did for Thor rather than a more costly one - will actually work out.

I think what still takes some getting used to is you don't actually have to be a great team to make the playoffs and go on a deep run, even though we just saw it with our own eyes. The Phillies won their last four-game series against the Braves with Suarez, Wheeler, Nola and a bullpen game (3 innings from Thor) in which they rocked Charlie Morton. This time they went 2-2 because the fourth game didn't go that way. But during the season an 87-win team is going to resemble a .500 team just as often as it does a really good one.

andyb 2023-05-29 15:38:12 UTC #128

Reading the Gelb article it really sounds like they are going to finesse the next 2-4 5th starter starts spotting them mostly against lesser teams. This is what they did with Falter last season. That probably means some combo of Sanchez or Falter gets these starts. Then in 3 weeks they probably hope other options surface internally (Nelson or McGarry) or externally (waiver claim/small trade).

With Painter I wonder if they will even try to stretch him out more than 3-4 innings. I could see him helping the team in a 60-pitch role down the stretch. We'll have an extra bullpen pitcher in September so a tandem (maybe with McGarry as the other half of the tandem) might make some sense.

bkeich 2023-05-29 17:22:23 UTC #129

Tandem starting Painter would make a lot of sense to me. We want him to get innings, but not overtax his arm, he is still very young for this. There are multiple candidates to put in the tandem, Nelson, McGarry even maybe Hoffman if he continues to look better than expected.

The other reason to shrink Painter's innings is you want him available for September and the off chance of playoffs. This kid is suppose to be a cornerstone piece of our future, even just a few innings of importance will prepare him for the future.

Sabin 2023-05-29 19:16:03 UTC #130

While not generally untrue, this is a bit oversimplified. Yes, teams do just need to hang around long enough in any given season and get hot at the right time - similar to any single game. But the stretch of the season does gather the more consistently good teams together into a format where multi-game series determine who moves on.

Naturally we don't know how the rest of the season will work out, but it's not a particularly good feeling to be sitting on pace for ~77 wins with a mess of a fifth-day start (Gibson was at least holding down a respectable 3.83 ERA at this point last year), and an offense sans Hoskins that really needs mid-season Schwarber to show up to help leverage what has thus far been a sub-par showing from the rest of pitching staff as well.

While a few wins better this year, we're only a couple of days removed from last year's 15-2 run to begin June. Whether this team can, or will even need to match the .594 winning percentage last year's club posted from June through September to squeak into the playoffs isn't really the point. It's the low-percentages that come with starting seasons in this fashion, as well as what it can lead to, e.g., the taxing of the some of the better arms of the staff until others come around or are acquired. We saw the effect of that in the WS last year, as well as the hangover effect it's had to open this year.

zambonir 2023-05-29 20:14:04 UTC #131

Well, when you put it that way....

I just think emotionally - and intellectually, if you rate the team's record only under Thomson - fans expected an NL East contender and potential juggernaut even though nobody else did, and the competition didn't get any easier. And even if you thought they were seriously going to win 95 games (which I believe even Dombrowski suggested), that was meant to happen with Hoskins, Suarez and a potent Turner (if not Harper, who is actually the one thing that has gone better than expected).

I'm mostly just reacting to this Braves series though. They played them evenly all last season too. For whatever reason they struggled against some other teams. And got fat on the Nationals, of course. The way they played in this series, even with last night's big disaster, reminded me the team is still pretty good. They're just not consistent, and weren't last year either. A few more losses in September and they don't even make it. Had they drawn the Mets instead of the Braves maybe they don't even get out of the division round (and for that matter had the Cardinals not fallen apart in Game 1 that round might have gone chalk too).

Austinfan 2023-05-29 20:53:07 UTC #132

This is the problem with too many starters 30 and over, while most won't fall off the proverbial cliff any one season, age curves say the team's average performance will decline.

andyb 2023-05-29 21:32:32 UTC #133

The Phillies are not super old though. Among starters JT (32) and Wheeler (33) are the only players over age 31.

Age-related decline should really not be a huge problem with this team. We are just not depending on a bunch of super old players and we could probably replace guys like Harrison and Kimbrel if we had to.

Austinfan 2023-05-30 12:31:02 UTC #134

But we have 2 more years of Schwarber and 3 more of Castellanos.
I expect Turner to turn it around, but probably can't expect his 26-29 year old production going forward.
And JT is also past his peak.
The only "older" players I think can maintain their production are Harper and Wheeler.

andyb 2023-05-30 12:47:16 UTC #135

If players decline they get replaced. The problem you fail to note is we can't really replace many players with anyone better from our own system. You just don't propose much of a strategy to make the team better. Until we have young prospects that deliver (and aside from our 3 top pitching prospects, who really out there improves us that much?) then we just have to sign free agents and trade (hopefully second tier) prospects for players in the prime age 26-29 range that can help us now.

DD recognized this. And he has not really savaged our farm system as he built the team. If Castellanos or Schwarber decline they'll just get replaced. Money talks and we have a decent sized market and a rich owner.

zambonir 2023-05-30 14:48:58 UTC #136

Yeah, they are just not actually going to run out of money so long as they can still fill 1/3 of the roster with younger players, which they have been able to do, though over the next two years that is going to depend more on pitchers. After that they will also have even more available payroll especially if they don't re-sign Wheeler (JT, Schwarber deals expire, Castellanos will be almost gone, Bohm's probably not staying past free agency unless it's part of an extension soon).

Certainly the tail end of Harper and Turner's contracts will probably call for a rebuild if there aren't five or six significant homegrown players alongside them by then, but that's still a ways away.

I don't think Dombrowski is so foolish as to think he can identify the players who defy the age curve... rather, this has always been an all-in bet on the Nola/Wheeler/Realmuto/Hoskins core. They won't sign another Turner this off-season but they can make similar moves to last year with good but not elite free agents on shorter deals (i.e. Castellanos and Schwarber, except people who can also field), plus re-sign or replace Nola, to keep it going. Ideally then they don't have to re-sign or replace Wheeler (assuming he still rates a huge contract) because 2 of the 3 kids are fully ready.