GDT 5/14/24 Philadelphia Phillies (Nola, Aa) @ New York Mets (Buttó)

[andyb]

I think Stubbs is solid defensively. He has just probably lost the batspeed on offense that gave him some midrange power a couple of years ago. He can still run and bunt and draw some walks. It is just a bunch of soft contact now.

But as I said, solid defensively. Throws and blocks pretty well and the pitching staff likes him. No idea about his framing stats. Marchan might have won the job if healthy and could still do that next year. He is not healthy however so we go with the good clubhouse and defensive option.

[bkeich]

Yea, but JT is getting older. We really need a guy that can start 50+ games without giving us a 11% drop in offense. Stubbs is simply a black hole in the lineup.

It needs to be a priority at the trade deadline, doesn’t have to be a big deal, just a competent backup and guy that doesn’t hit worse than the pitchers.

[zambonir]

I think it's a consideration at the trade deadline, not a priority. Certainly JT's injury (and declining performance) should be a wake-up call. It won't be that hard to bring someone else in, I just don't think it will be someone we enjoy watching or would want starting in October either.

Clearly Stubbs' current OPS is not acceptable. But he plays so little that just one or two good games over the next month would bring him to the level of most back-up catchers in the league. 30 catchers in MLB are <.600 OPS and 30 are >700 OPS (O'Hoppe happens to be #30), with 10 in between.

I was surprised they didn't go after Austin Nola, but guess what, he stinks too. Garcia is probably better than him.

[Callison]

The effort to keep JT fresh is years late. With the Phils' SP, Stubbs will do just fine this season. And he needs more PT to sharpen his eye. He's got an arm. He's fast. He's scrappy. Everybody see that perfect bunt? I'm a Stubbs kinda guy.

[andyb]

Speaking of the devil (well not really the devil), Rafael Marchan rehabbing with Clearwater tonight. Looks like he caught 4 or 5 innings, got a hit, and got subbed for which is about the length one would expect for a first outing after a long rehab.

[zambonir]

That's actually great news about Marchan.

And Callison, you are right. Maybe not years late, but this would have been the year to make it a priority.

I think with most back-up catchers and utility IFs they are just average to slightly above average defensively and poor offensively (arguably reports of Sosa being excellent defensively have been exaggerated, even). Some catchers are good offensively and poor defensively. Knapp managed to be that guy for one year and Stubbs surprised everyone his first year. Not sure Chris Coste was any good behind the plate but he could sure hit.

[andyb]

If Marchan is ready in a month it at least insulates us a bit from JT having lingering injury issues. Hopefully he can manage playing time with a sore knee though it might require a bit more rest. Having Marchan around at least gives us a plausible third catcher and a switch hitter to boot. I give Stubbs a pretty long leash as the backup, but if we need an everyday catcher for a stretch I'd probably prefer that to be Marchan.

[phillychuck]

Marchan is probably an ideal back-up catcher--likely to be MLB average (for a catcher) with the bat and a bit below average defensively. He's hit pretty well when healthy. But we are fooling ourselves if we think Stubbs is going anywhere--the pitchers love him, and that's hard to accomplish when you're replacing a popular starting catcher with a good glove and a good sense of the game like JT. the projection systems have him at about 0 WAR, which isn't bad for a back-up catcher. Stubbs projects to about 0.2 WAR, mostly defensive value.

[andyb]

That is kind of why I said Stubbs is perfectly safe as the backup. Playing once or twice a week and the staff loves him.

Now with Marchan I am curious why you think he would be average offensively and a bit below defensively. I always thought the opposite. He has little power but has improved his bat skills enough to get up to a 600-650 OPS and nothing more. I always thought he was very quick behind the plate and threw well. And we know framing skills sometimes take time.

It was Marchan's offense that concerned me and not his defense. He improved in AAA and Venezuela, but those leagues are less tough than the used to be. I don't trust those stats until I see more at a higher level. AAA seems a little more competitive this year with the tweaks to the automated strike zone, so maybe if Marchan comes up and puts up a 750 OPS this year we'll feel better about it than his 800+ last year.

[zambonir]

If JT did have to go to the IL and Marchan was an option I imagine it would be about 50-50, which is also pretty much the SOP for more than half the teams in baseball anyway.

But yeah, I thought Marchan was already ready defensively but not much with the bat. He did hit the crap out of the ball for a few games in 2020 but in 2021 he was over his head. Basically he was Garrett Stubbs back then, except for very different reasons (too young, too soon). It's shame he couldn't stay healthy enough to develop normally from there. He was even part of the reason it was easier to trade O'Hoppe.

[Austinfan]

That was the best Nola has thrown for a long time. Like sometime last season.
Had all his pitches working, and finally had his "normal" velocity.
You could see him tire in the 9th, still throwing 92-94, but struggling to locate the FB.
Being able to maintain velocity past 100 pitches is a good sign.
Only quibble was his changeup seemed to be MIA, but 2 seamer, 4 seamer, cutter, knuckle curve all working.

[schillingfan]

His change-up is probably his weakest pitch, IMO. My flawed perception bias is it seems like he gives up homers most on his change-up

[phillychuck]

Pitch Info Solutions (via fangraphs) shows that his changeup for the last three years is his only consistently negative pitch, and possibly because he is throwing it harder (not enough delta between the change and the FB). He is still throwing it 12% of the time this season, though. Maybe it's just our perception that he's not throwing it because it looks too much like his sinker, both in shape and velocity.

Nola throws five pitches, 4-seamer, cutter, sinker, curve and change. He could probably reduce the frequency of any of them without affecting his success, except the curve.

[schillingfan]

Wow. It’s great that my perception matched the data.