GDT 4/3/24 Cincinnati Reds (Montas) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler)

[LoneStarPhan]

2-4 start to the season as the Phillies lose back to back series at home.

A miserable day for the players and fans alike.

Need a strong start from Nola to get things on the winning track on Friday.

[Austinfan]

Bullpen settling into place, I think Nelson goes down for Kerkering.
Otherwise, SD, Alvarado, Hoffman, Kerkering, Soto, Marte, Pinto, Turnbull as swing man until they know what's happening with Walker.

If Nola settles in, and Walker can pitch in May with his usual velo, solid pitching staff from top to bottom sets them up for a long run.

[gmwannabe]

I know it is way, way too early, but can Wes Wilson play Right Field?
gm

[andyb]

A little less Merrifield also might help. Marsh should play almost every day.

[Austinfan]

Merrifield is fine as a super sub, but not worth force feeding into the lineup.
Though I think some of early moves are just to keep bench fresh, it's easy to just write in starters, then a month from now have to put a bench player in for two weeks after 3 PAs to start the season.

[BostonRoss]

The main problem is the offense. Only Schwarber, Marsh, and JT have been ok (and Harper for one game). If most of the others don’t snap out of it soon, it could be a long season. To be fair, the weather isn’t helping, but the opponents have been hitting better.

[zambonir]

The pen has been a bright spot after a bumpy start. This is worse than last year though since they started at home. Offense can't squander pitching like they got last night even if it wasn't the kind of night where five runs could be expected.

The hitters also have to hit for the Rojas plan to work... though they still lack an actual alternative (as Merrifield's own beginning as this year's Jake Cave spring training performance also demonstrates).

Schedule gets easier for next couple of weeks though who knows what these teams actually are or which ones will roll over like they used to. Pirates (like the Reds) might actually be good.

[Austinfan]

Not going to panic about the hitters until June. Players have hot and cold streaks.
As long as the pitching is solid they can reel off 16-4 runs at any time.

[andyb]

I think some of early moves are just to keep bench fresh

Yes they needed to get everyone a start the first week, but Merrifield has played 4 out of 6 so far and is really not that good. If he keeps playing more than 50% of the games it will be a problem. Not because he wears down, but because someone like Marsh or Bohm or Stott is probably better than him (especially layering in defense). They should not have Merrifield as a quasi starter. Maybe things change a bit if Rojas is sent down, but at that point we probably layer in a left-handed bat like Clemens who is a better fit for some playing time than Merrifield against right-handed pitching.

[Philsmania]

Merrifield is Topper's new toy at the moment.

[zambonir]

Pache is the forgotten man at this point which is not surprising and of course it's early but I really thought when they made that call he'd get the nod over Merrifield more (in addition to one start a week in CF over Rojas). Merrifield got the start at 2B the one time Pache started in LF but Marsh came in early that game so Pache only got 1 AB.

[BostonRoss]

Pache still doesn't really fit on this roster. But since all the other RH batters are struggling except JT, I'd start Pache against Corbin tomorrow and Gore on Sunday. The Phils are scheduled to face LHP three of the next five games.

Of course, if Rojas doesn't start hitting, Pache will get even more starts.

[zambonir]

For sure, he's just here as Rojas insurance. But since I don't think Merrifield can hit or play great LF, and the Phillies still don't seem to believe in Marsh as an everyday player, he should play a little. And yeah, probably will with more of those lefties. I just don't want to see Stott sitting against them regularly. But would be fine with Merrifield playing 3B once a week against RHP.

[BostonRoss]

I don't think Stott should sit very often, and I am fine with letting Marsh get most of the ABs against LHP. For now, I don't think they'll sit Rojas against LHP, and they won't (and shouldn't) sit Bohm. So they have to choose between Marsh, Pache, and Merrifield for the LF starts. I'd let Pache have the next two or three starts, or maybe two for Pache and one for Marsh. I'd consider Merrifield for a RF start against the next RHP (he and Castellanos have been equally bad so far). I might give Sosa a start for Turner as well.

[zambonir]

While it is obviously very early, if things continue like this some changes/upgrades to the bench, or possibly a trade deadline OF, will inevitably happen. But Rojas is going to get his month or so, and they'll obviously be patient with Castellanos. Especially since in both cases there's really no better alternative. Rojas shouldn't really be punished for the shortcomings of 1-8.

I bet we still see more of Merrifield than Pache in those three games against LHP. Or, rather, the same amount (and Marsh once).

[allentown]

While it is obviously very early, if things continue like this some changes/upgrades to the bench, or possibly a trade deadline OF, will inevitably happen

No! IF things continue like this, i.e. the Phillies win only a third of their games, they won't add, they will try to sell. Tweaks to the bench aren't going to turn the corner. Either they start winning sooner rather than later, predominantly with the team they have now, or it will be sell/rebuild. Teams that approach the trade deadline with a .333 record aren't buyers, unless they are run by fools. DD isn't a fool.

[zambonir]

Well, I don't really believe they are a .333 team, or that six games really means anything. They have a championship-caliber pitching staff and a bunch of a hitters who are going to hit. Plus a history of slow starts, and the Reds might actually be good (and we know the Braves are very good).

I meant it in a very specific way. If Rojas isn't ready to play every day they will muddle along with Marsh in CF and various LFs but if Merrifield also isn't good they will have to get someone to play more LF. Even if Merrifield is decent, that's not the role they signed him for, and they still need a LHB either way (the spot on the roster will open if Rojas doesn't stick, or they're ultimately not going to keep both Rojas and Pache).

Dombrowski is no fool but he doesn't really have anything to sell even if the team stinks. Obviously if they aren't clear playoff contenders he's not going to be a buyer and could dump a few relievers (and Merrifield but in that scenario who would want him?).

But there's really still no scenario in which they are not contenders. Even if they are where the Mets were last year (.476, 5.5 games out) they would be much more likely to try and stay in the race, it's not like they can trade Wheeler and Nola the way the Mets traded Verlander and Scherzer. Castellanos is likely untradable. And they won't be punting on 2025 so Schwarber and JT won't be going anywhere either.

And if they're in position for the top wild card like last year and they need a starter or a closer or an OF, because there's one clear weakness on the roster, this will actually be the year in which he makes a blockbuster deadline deal and does go over the next CBT.

Different conversation in July of '25 if they're no good. Then Bohm, Suarez, JT, Schwarber, Alvarado, Seranthony (assuming he's back to begin with) would all be on the table, plus they could try to dump Walker and Nick.

[Austinfan]

As long as the pitching staff stays healthy, it's good enough that any sort of hitting streak will translate into .700+ baseball for that stretch. Now the problem is their best starting players are all 30+, Bohm and Stott may be who they are, and Marsh still has to show he can hit LH pitching consistently. So while they will hit at some point, it's hard to see a top ten offense here unless players like Turner, JT and Castellanos become more disciplined at the plate (asking the Leopard to change his spots).

[zambonir]

They scored the 8th-most runs in MLB last year. 6th in OPS. It's not like the Diamondbacks were better, they just got hot and had a better approach in the series. And then ran into a team that actually was better than them or us.

Obviously it's still true that our best players aren't likely ascending to any more peaks and our young players aren't necessarily going to ascend to All-Stars. But Stott and Marsh still might.

I'm not even sure you really want to change those players. A new approach or mechanics isn't necessarily going to make them better or stop time. In the end if you want the Nick of NLDS you also get the Nick of NLCS. Turner might end up being just fine. Nick was largely fine last year. But neither of them are going to be what they were in their best years with their previous teams again. That's okay, if still not ideal, with Nick. Less so with Turner given he's not really that great a SS either and we have him forever. But he's probably gonna be fine for a couple of years.

[Austinfan]

As a player ages, if he doesn't learn to improve his plate discipline and accept his limitations, he's likely to fall off the cliff.

We can see that with Castellanos, everyone now pitches him the same way, FBs off the plate high and/or inside, breaking balls low and away - and he keeps chasing those sliders off the plate. If he doesn't learn to spit on those pitches, and wait for a "mistake", look for a rapid descent to replacement level or below.

It's not necessarily about walks (they tend to be correlated) but as a player ages, avoid digging a hole (0-2, 1-2 counts) and patiently wait for a pitcher to miss, if you're up 2-1 or 3-1, the pressure is on the pitcher to throw you a strike, and most pitchers don't have good enough command to paint the edges twice in a row. So you either get a walk or a pitch you have a better shot at handling. If you're down in the count b/c you took a strike you had little chance of hitting, no harm done.

It's a game of percentages, smart hitters try to stack the odds in their favor, they're still going to be fooled, but they don't make it easy on the pitcher.