GDT 4/3/19 Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) @ Washington Nationals (Sánchez, An)

[Philsmania]

Hunter was actually pretty solid in the end last year. Neshek is good. Hopefully Robertson does not have a physical issue.

Everybody wanted either Robertson or Miller or Kimbrel, hopefully we didn't pick the wrong guy.

Hunter has pulled up lame this year and shows no sign of feeling better while Neshek was only available for half the season last year. Anytime you sign a veteran middle or setup reliever to a pricey multiyear contract, you're asking for trouble.

And we still can get Kimbrel.

[Squire]

Neshek threw all of 24 innings last year for like 9 million. Hunter was mediocre for 10 million and is hurt this year.

[tom81]

We also have the option of putting Velasquez in the bullpen and bringing up one of many from AAA to the rotation. I'm not worried about the pitching yet, especially the bullpen. I am actually more worried about Nola than the bullpen, he has been off in both of his two starts. OTOH I am encouraged by Eflin and Arrietta. This is baseball and you don't win them all. I'll take 4 out of 5 all season long.

[zambonir]

None of these relievers are actually signed to prohibitive contracts, that's kind of the point of them. In 2008 Hunter and Neshek would have had three-year deals (like Madson and Romero) and Robertson would have gotten five. They have enough young relievers to cover injuries (Ramos is actually looking good) and enough depth/money to eat a salary if they have to. If Rios and Arano were up here now they could be blowing it just the same as Robertson. In the end Hunter still contributed a lot (third-best WAR in the 'pen), if it had been Rios instead of him they would have lost 2-3 WAR. That's worth the money.

Now, if they go out next year and spend $30-40 million on relievers to replace this year's vets, while also refusing to exceed the tax, we'd have a problem.

Anyway, our bullpen only gave up three runs to Washington's four. It's all in the timing. And the starting pitcher.

(Nola and Robertson both said they stunk after.)

[frylock]

Offense continues to be impressive, and awesome they didn't quit. Bullpen has been trash so far this year... thought on paper they'd be top ten (still maybe, may simply just be early season issues that turn themselves around), but some of the key players have struggled.

[el-pietro]

The guy hit three doubles last night. Do we forget that so quickly? He singled (shortly after you commented) and scored today. He has an OPS of .829 on the season so far. I realise he's not putting up stupid numbers like Franco or Bryce but he's doing ok so far.

[LoneStarPhan]

With loss today, Phillies drop out of first place in NL East. Mets move half game ahead of Phillies

[zambonir]

Okay that stings.

[allentown]

My concern isn't the bullpen, it's Nola. So far this season, he hasn't looked like Nola. As long as he's healthy and just working through minor mechanical issues, all is fine, but...

[Philsmania]

My concern isn't the bullpen, it's Nola. So far this season, he hasn't looked like Nola. As long as he's healthy and just working through minor mechanical issues, all is fine, but...

Your post had me thinking of Hamels in 2009 after his 2008 breakout.

[Austinfan]

Finish sucked, but it's April.

First 40 games of any season is a shakeout cruise, how often do you see a team go 20-20 or so, then make a couple moves, a couple veterans tweak their pitching/swing mechanics and get hot and the team takes off.

Conversely, a lot of thin teams start out strong, then run out of steam as the summer games pile up, injuries and dings take their toll, and hot players grow cold.

I just want to hit that 40 game mark with a few questions answered, a > .500 record, some players stepping up in AAA offering potential depth, and the team settling into a groove. This team should pound the ball all year, and they have a lot of pitching depth in the minors, so I'm not going to worry about April glitches. Given their offensive prowess, this season may come down to a "Bystrom" or "Happ" or Bystrom trade or Madson stepping up. Maybe Anderson or De Los Santos fills a rotation hole or Rios puts it together and is lights out.

That's the fun of each season, it's unscripted and almost anything can happen, for good or evil.

[zambonir]

That's all well and good but I'd still like to be 8-3 a week from today. Most - not all - teams that start hot have good seasons. Teams that start 20-5 have definitely won a lot more divisions than teams that started 20-20 and then got hot.

[andyb]

If it is any consolation, most bullpens are struggling. The Athletic noted that in the 15 games yesterday, a total of 41 runs were scored in the 8th and 9th innings. The Nats' bullpen has an ERA of 11.02 (we are in the mid 4s). Robertson has been a disappointment but it seems to be command issues. Seranthony throwing 96-97 is not as good as him throwing 99 like last year. But he still could be decent if he commands his offspeed stuff better.

Short answer is don't panic. Lots of relievers struggle early. Give it a month or two to see if it is a problem we need to address. The offense is going great. The team is pretty healthy. They are going to score lots and lots of runs. If Harper is going to have an OBP way over .400, it just changes the entire offense for the better. The secret to a great offense for Klentak is throwing 3 or 4 guys with a high OBP in the center of the lineup. Segura is also a perfect complement because he gets hits and not walks. This is an offense built to score lots of runs and OBP is fairly immune to slumps.

[Austinfan]

When you score a lot of runs, you don't need great pitching, the 2008 Phillies are a prime example. This team looks like it can hit against just about anyone. Williams may stay b/c you need a couple guys who can hit off the bench. Nice to see Kingery work that walk, that's one of the keys with him.

And in that case, you don't need miracles, even if Nola has an off-year, if Eflin steps up, if one or two Lehigh pitchers emerge, etc., you can have good enough pitching. And if this team scores 850-900 runs, "good enough" will be enough. The reason the 200-4-2007 teams couldn't get over the hump was below average pitching.

And once you get to the playoffs, it comes down to 3 starters and maybe 4-5 RPs (the others eat inning when your behind and out of a game).

[el-pietro]

I saw the Yankees on Monday and Chapman was "only" hitting 98 towards the end of his outing. Started out around 95 and each pitch was slightly faster than the previous. Probably still warming up for the year. Hopefully the same is true of Seranthony

[zambonir]

I agree the offense should carry them until the deadline.

The Athletic article also speculates that the worm may be turning away from the super-high velocity relievers now that hitters have focused so much on solving them.

[andyb]

The average fastball velocity stopped increasing the last few years as teams are prioritizing spin rate more. I have no idea if that will be better for injury prevention. Less velocity should help pitchers a bit, but the increased spin rate could put more pressure on elbows. I often fear the long term injury reports whenever MLB gets a bright new idea.

[EastFallowfield]

With loss today, Phillies drop out of first place in NL East. Mets move half game ahead of Phillies

And the Mets again are punchless at home, lose, and drop into a first place tie.

Apparently the Mets ERA in the 9th innings so far in 2019 is 15.63, or at least that's something you can read on twitter, maybe a joke?

[Austinfan]

Don't think it has to do with injury prevention, but the "Red Queen" effect. (see Ridley, The red queen: Sex and the evolution of human nature)
As pitcher velocity increased, batters were selected for bat speed.
At the upper end of velocity you sacrifice command, so if bat speed negates velocity, lack of command makes most high velocity pitchers less valuable.

I saw this when Garcia was throwing 97-99 and giving up dingers.

Bat speed/compact swing mechanics that allow you to hit high velocity pitches also allows hitters to wait on breaking stuff, so you have to have enough velocity to keep them honest. The FB velocity band has tightened, so the new emphasis is on movement and changing speeds (thus spin rate).

You see more SPs with a whole portfolio, 4 seamer, 2 seamer that sinks, slider/cutter, curve and changeup. The changeup has become more valuable b/c hitters can't pick up the spin and wait on a breaking ball, so they hesitate, which makes a FB effectively faster.

[Austinfan]

My suspicion is the next move by hitters is what we saw from Harper, use the shift and learning to hit offspeed pitches to take advantage of huge holes - if you won't throw an inside FB he can pull into the seats, take the outside FB to the left center alley and punch the outside breaking ball through the hole in the shift.

With film study, the pace of "Red Queen" evolution quickens, since each side can observe and react to the actions taken by the opponent.