GDT 4/25/18 Arizona Diamondbacks (Greinke) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Arrieta)

[zambonir]

Freaking out about the closer in the ninth inning of a close game is like the baseball version of there are no atheists in a foxhole. Plenty of better closers than Neris still walk guys and blow saves. Of course it already seems like Kapler is yet another manager who isn't really going to reinvent relief pitching. But I don't see a closer upgrade in the future, probably just another good arm (and possibly from the minors rather than in trade).

Neris's pitch is the split, not the slider, but sometimes it doesn't quite happen for him. I think Lidge's regular fastball was better (relative to the rest of the league) in his heyday too.

[Dirk41]

Can Arano close?

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I think we're going to find out by the end of the season(Arano or Ramos).

[gmwannabe]

or.....Seranthony.

[EastFallowfield]

Meghan Montemurro:

Phillies earned their 11th come-from-behind victory of the season tonight, in their 23rd game. Only other time in franchise history Phillies had as many come-from-behind wins this early was in 2009 (also 11 in first 23 games).

[Austinfan]

Grienke is the poster child for avoiding big contracts to pitchers in their 30s.
Three years, $100M left after this season, and he's cooked at age 34.
Velocity has declined from 92 to 89 (plus gun adjustment) since 2016.
He's still the same smart pitcher he was, but his margin of error is now razor thin.

Which is why Klentak held out for a three year deal for Arrieta.
Arrieta this year is pretty much the same pitcher he was the second half of last year, averaging 92 and much like Grienke, has successfully adjusted to his loss of velocity with guile.
But like Grienke, he can't afford to lose too much more velocity and remain effective.
So three years was a smart move (with options if he beats the odds).

[Austinfan]

Neris is not MItch Williams, nibbling with average stuff and living on the edge of disaster.
The splitter is his out pitch, sometimes he has perfect command, sometimes it's a bit spotty.
But how many blown saves since last year's Allstar game?
Pre-Allstar, saved 7 of 10, post-Allstar 19 of 19, this year 5 of 6.

His FB is down so far, but that may be an early season artifact.
Neris is a bit weird, he pitches better than FIP etc. says he should, that may reflect his unusual arsenal.

[andyb]

Grienke is the poster child for avoiding big contracts to pitchers in their 30s.
Three years, $100M left after this season, and he's cooked at age 34

Pretty sure you said that before last year too when I floated trying to acquire him. Maybe he does not have many 6 WAR seasons left in him but not sure we can say he won't be in the 2-4 WAR range in the future. Velocity is relatively unimportant to Grienke as he has always changed speeds throwing everything from 65-95. Now if that is 65-90 he won't be quite as good as he was, but "cooked" suggests he can't be good. In 30 IP he has walked 3 and struck out 32 so far this year. That is pretty good and the HRs (6) he has given up may be a little bad luck.

Klentak successfully played the market to get Arrieta for 3 years. That is a very different thing than saying his contract would be a bust for 5 years (and there is a good chance he will use those 2 option years to make it a 5-year deal). Arrieta is different than Grienke and has relied more on movement than on velocity. It is likely he is not trying to throw as hard as he gets older since his goal is really more movement and location.

Neither of these pitchers is "cooked" yet. Expensive yes, but that is the cost of acquiring good pitchers without giving up talent.

[Austinfan]

The HRs aren't bad luck, they reflect zero margin for error. Players don't have to respect his FB.
He's throwing 88, touching 90. His changeup is 85, it has a lot of movement, but there's no velocity separation.
There are few pitchers who are successful #3 starters with that kind of stuff, as fun as Moyer was, he wasn't exactly a shutdown starter.
I'd take a healthy Eickhoff over this version of Grienke.

The Arrieta contract avoids risk past 3 years, when a lot of pitchers fall off the cliff (age 35) - given Arrieta has already had a velocity decline, he's certainly a good candidate to eventually nose dive.

There's a huge difference between 92 and 88 on a FB, much larger than the difference between 92 and 96.