24 Chicago White Sox (Crochet) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Turnbull)

allentown 2024-04-20 17:38:39 UTC #121

Really? Btw, 32 x 5 = 160. How many #5 starters started 32 games last season or season before? In 2023, only 27 MLB pitchers started 32 or more games. In 2022 the number was 22. Last year only 5 pitchers pitched 200 or more IP. The max was 216. Going back to the Whiz Kids, my first vague Phillies memories (but only WS) Robin Roberts had over 300 IP and was only second in IP. My favorite baseball season as a kid (1964) Drysdale had over 300 IP and Jackson just missed that mark and the Phillies had 3 pitchers with over 200 IP and Bunning at 284 IP

phillychuck 2024-04-20 17:43:40 UTC #122

It wouldn't be a bad idea to start Wheeler, Nola, and Ranger, and give the other two starts to Turnbull, Walker, and Sanchez piggybacking one. You could also piggyback for Suarez and Nola occasionally after long outings. I think it would be great to see Topper and Cotham come up with a creative solution that takes innings pressure off of all the starters (except Wheeler, who seems to crave lots of innings).

I hope they figure something brilliant out!

andyb 2024-04-20 18:23:56 UTC #123

5 innings is just a shorthand substitute for 7. In most starts they try for more and 32 starts that go into the 6th inning would easily get to the 170 range. Starters average 5.1 innings per start.

The real issue is only 28 pitchers in baseball made 32 starts or more. That is where you get guys pitching 150 or fewer innings. They hurt something in the middle of the year and the team shuts them down for a short IL stint often with some minor league rehab in the middle.

It is not the cumulative inning load causing injuries as long as reasonable pitch counts and rest between starts are involved. Injuries are still about overusing velocity and spin mostly.

I'd tandem Walker (knowing that probably means 2+ inning stints) until he proves effective. An injury or someone being ineffective for a stretch is bound to happen anyway. Turnbull is pitching well. He is not being abused on pitch counts. Let him continue to pitch until he doesn't pitch well.

Austinfan 2024-04-20 19:03:18 UTC #124

Why would you mess with Sanchez, he's picked up where he left off last season and has been excellent.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Between AAA and PHL, he started 26 games and threw 149 IP last season. He's your 4th starter, period.

His 2-seamer velocity is up this season, 92.3 to 94.2. It's not as effective, as he's getting used to throwing harder, I suspect he'll dial back a little and improve command, but his changeup is plus plus and the slider is a plus pitch.

Neither Turnbull or Walker are suited to the bullpen.
Walker last three seasons, 29, 29, 31 starts, 159, 157, 172 IP
I think they'd have to be used in a long relief role throwing multiple innings to have value in the pen.
Walker lives and dies on the splitter but his other pitches are meh.

allentown 2024-04-20 20:38:01 UTC #125

A piggy-back start, intended not to involve any relievers, as our 5th rotation spot works fine for me. It's as close to my preference for a 6-man rotation as our manager and top two starters are likely to accept. Beats the heck out of the 'reliever games' we had last season. Leaves either of the tandem starters to assume a full rotation spot in the case one of the main 4 starters needs to spend a little time on the DL.

andyb 2024-04-20 20:42:34 UTC #126

Because Sanchez has as many questions as Walker or Turnbull. And he has relieved before.

phillychuck 2024-04-20 20:45:48 UTC #127

It's interesting and unexpected that we are here in April of 2024 and it actually looks like the Meade for Sanchez trade might have been a good one for the Phils, or at least break-even! A year ago it was being criticized as thievery.

Austinfan 2024-04-20 21:15:25 UTC #128

He has far less questions, coming off a 149 IP season and gaining velocity, compared to Turnbull (durability), Walker (arm strength, consistency) issues.
He's got better stuff than either of them.

andyb 2024-04-20 21:58:35 UTC #129

Only in your mind. He really doesn't have a great variety of pitches. More velocity is good, but he has not really used it effectively yet. And he really has one good year on his resume.

None of that means he can't do well. And all my posts have called for Walker to be the odd man out for now because the other 5 are pitching better. But given his track record and short record of success and history in the bullpen - moving Sanchez there if Walker pitches well AND Sanchez has some bumps in the road facing better teams - is an obvious thing to consider. Stop fitting the narrative to whomever you tend to like at the moment. The Phillies' job is to win games with all the tools at their disposal and frankly the only 2 starters you don't think at all about demoting are Wheeler and Nola. That is it. Even Ranger has durability questions and positive bullpen experience.

Austinfan 2024-04-20 22:59:55 UTC #130

Sanchez has a plus plus changeup and a plus slider - how many pitches does he need? I suspect they'll work on a 4 seamer as a "show me" pitch to go with his 2-seamer, but if his slider is plus, he doesn't need a cutter. The added velocity will help his other pitches, but he could use more movement and command on his two seamer.

I don't really know how Ranger does it, his pitches don't look that good in terms of visible movement, yet when he's on, he's dominant, like the playoffs - probably has more deception than it looks like on TV.

I think Nola has the opposite problem, he can't get away with mistakes, maybe because it's easier for hitters to pick up the ball out of his hand? That's why command is so vital to his success. Even his knuckle curve, which looks like it should be hard to hit, gets slammed when he can't keep it off the middle of the plate and below the knees.

allentown 2024-04-20 23:24:32 UTC #131

Nola's big selling point on draft day and when brought to the majors was his command. He needs that. He seems to have two problems: he loses confidence and nibbles his way into deep counts with men on base and he likes to work very slowly and struggles with the time clock. He also seems to lack sufficient endurance for the number of innings and pitches he throws. The large number of waste set-up pitches doesn't help that.

andyb 2024-04-21 02:00:25 UTC #132

That is kind of only your opinion. Changeup is good. Fastball is a 45-50 at this point. Slider is average at best also. Again, let's see him do it for more than 3/4 of a season. He has improved which is great but he is not a sure thing.

Once again you ignore my point though. The only scenario I take Sanchez out of the rotation is if Walker is pitching well and Sanchez is pitching less well. That should be a no brainer assuming Turnbull is pitching well of course. You just craft narratives on your favorite players that embellish certain things. Ranger does it by changing speeds and locating - old school stuff less dependent on spin analytics. Sanchez is a favorite of those analytics but that does not necessarily make him a good pitcher long term.