GDT 4/19/24 Chicago White Sox (Crochet) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Turnbull)

[allentown]

Pitching has been amazing thus far. And Bohm came into the game leading the team in rbi and adds 6 more.

[BaseballCat]

Turnbull has only pitched around 50 innings in each of the past three years. Not sure how much they plan on pushing him - at 22 innings right now. It’s a good problem to have, but agree Walker needs to step up.

[bkox]

There are 187 hitters currently with enough PAs to qualify for the batting title in MLB.

Nick Castellanos ranks 186th in OPS and SLG. 180th in OBP, 182nd in BA and hes 437th of 440 in WAR according to ESPN.

[allentown]

Very difficult to understand how he hasn't earned a few days off.

[zambonir]

Yeah, I too wondered how they could justify it but that is the issue, more than simply kowtowing to a high-paid veteran. They don't expect him to throw more than 75-80 innings this year, and they figure he'll be back in the rotation soon enough (whether that's an injury or later in the season when a six-man or piggyback makes sense.

Of course if Walker stinks that's a whole other issue.

[Austinfan]

I think they see him in a similar light to Strahm last season, grateful for the streak of good starts, but realistic that he probably can't sustain this for more than another month before his arm falls off.
They probably want to keep him down to 10-15 starts and 100-125 IP for the season, a big jump over his last four seasons.

2019: 148 IP - career high including minors
2020: 57 IP
2021: 50 IP
2022: NA
2023: 57 IP

[phillychuck]

The trick with Turnbull is keeping him stretched out so that he is available to start when you need him without having his arm fall off. I don't think you can do that--it's just not possible. So what is the next best option? Pitching him in the bullpen and having him come back a a starter to pitch maybe 4 innings when you need the spot start?

Another point about the innings pitched is there are other innings in his arm in many of those years...we have to look up his ST innings, winter innings, practice innings, and his minor league innings, too. Maybe he has 120-130 innings in that arm for this year...? And we don't worry about next year (which is when performance crops off; the year after the innings jump...)

[Austinfan]

My numbers include minor league innings, and every pitcher has ST, practice and other IP.
We worry about next year if we think his performance is sustainable and he can be resigned at a reasonable rate like Strahm.
The one thing in his favor is he isn't a power pitcher, so less stress on arm, but I'd still be conservative, if you're gonna push him, wait until later in the season when you have few viable options after an injury.

[andyb]

I think the Phillies would be fine stretching Turnbull to 150 innings. He has been over 130 several times in his career and the last few years he was mostly hurt. He is 31 and healthy and on a low dollar contract. The Phillies have the luxury of using 6 starters too if they want at the moment.

Bottom line is they can't take him out of the rotation when he is pitching like this. It is likely not sustainable as he does not have anything near this record of success, but the innings are really not the problem. If he stayed healthy and pitched like this all year I am guessing the Phillies would stretch him to 170 or 180 innings and Turnbull himself would be fine with that. He has one shot at a big contract in his career most likely and 170 good innings on a playoff team might make him $100 million.

It is in everyone's interest to see what he can do (on reasonable pitch counts and occasional 6-starter rotation stretches).

[andyb]

2019: 148 IP - career high including minors
2020: 57 IP

2019 was actually 152 including the minors and 2018 was 135.2 while 2017 was 133.2. Then 2020 was 57 IP in a 60 game season so that was a pace for 150+. He got hurt in 2021. Missed 2022 for TJ surgery and 2023 was a rough comeback from that surgery.

Apart from the injury which hurt his innings for 3 consecutive years there is nothing about Turnbull that suggests he is not easily capable of something in the 130-150. The "add 30 a year" thing is for young pitchers, not 31-year-olds who already had his ramp up year last year (where he was more ineffective than hurt).

[Austinfan]

Cumulative fatigue also leads to injuries, it's not like he just had a TJ, he's had a series of injuries.

If you're going to blow out his arm, do it to win games in August and September (and hopefully October), not in May.
That is, overwork him if you have to down the stretch due to injuries, not early in the season b/c he's on an unsustainable hot streak.

My suspicion is less that he'll get injured, but that as the innings pile up, he'll get tired arm and lose command - in which case he'll be lite up like fourth of July fireworks. He's totally dependent on command, and if he can't locate his pitches on the edges of the plate, none are good enough to beat ML hitters.

[andyb]

Cumulative fatigue also leads to injuries

Does it though at levels that would put him in the 150-170 inning range? We don't know. And it is generally safer for older pitchers than younger pitchers. You just don't know any of this. The Phillies have an extensive medical staff available. They are not going to do anything egregious. Let the guy pitch if he shows he is capable of that.

[zambonir]

He can go from long man to spot or piggyback/six-man starter easily enough. If he's back in the rotation as an injury replacement might need a couple of starts to get longer. It's not like he was stretched out for starting this year either.

100 might be realistic. I doubt 120 or 150 is. Let's hope we don't find out (because that would mean Walker failed or someone else got injured). He may have also still pitched himself out of the rotation, were he staying in it. He's out-performed Lorenzen but we were similarly exuberant about him (some were ready to replace Nola in the playoffs rotation with him) for a couple of games.

But maybe Thomson is just saying all this to cover their ass with Walker. I get that Walker is coming back I'm just not convinced he's as ready as they say he is.

Thomson was asked before the game whether Turnbull could do anything against the White Sox to cement his status in the rotation.

“Nothing,” Thomson said. “No.”

Because there are other considerations when it comes to Turnbull. He missed all of 2022 and threw a total of 57 innings between the majors and minor leagues last season with the Tigers.

The Phillies know they will most likely need Turnbull in the rotation again this season, so Thomson said they want to monitor his workload to make sure he remains available.

A move to the bullpen when Walker returns could make it easier.

“That’s a big part, because you can’t add too many innings,” Thomson said. “I don’t know what that limit is. Usually you go up 30 or 40 from the year before. But we’re not going to put him in jeopardy.”

Said Turnbull: “I guess I understand that type of thinking. I don’t feel limited at all. I feel like I could handle the workload.

Phillies’ Spencer Turnbull shines on the mound in a Friday night rout of White...

[andyb]

None of that means the Phillies are right though. Nobody is suggesting 200 innings here. But the fact is that he has been their best starter the first month of the season. He has some track record before his injuries and some analytics suggesting the tweaks to his arsenal have made him more effective.

Guess how many major league appearances Turnbull has had from the bullpen. The answer is 1.
Guess how many minor league appearances Turnbull has had from the bullpen. The answer is 0.

Walker has barely appeared out of the bullpen too in his career, but the fact remains that Walker is not pitching better than Turnbull. His stuff is not where it was last year much less 2 years ago. If there is one guy that should work on things from the bullpen it is Walker.

The Phillies would be making a mistake to replace Turnbull in the rotation with Walker. They are doing it because of the long term contract. There is a logic to wanting to preserve that investment, but in my mind Walker needs to earn his spot back. There will be injuries through the season so that will happen anyway. The best move now though is clearly to stick with Turnbull.

[allentown]

Except 150 is the new 200 IP season. Nola and Wheeler are both capable of 200, but very few pitchers can do 200 in today's game. 150 IP is a very full load for a fully healthy 5th starter.

[phillychuck]

I think I would piggy-back Turnbull and Walker for at least a little while. 5 IP and 4 IP, which would keep Turnbull stretched out and keep his innings down. You can be more effective at this with the DH, too. It calls for some creative thinking, which baseball managers are not exactly famous for. Call Nick Nurse...

[zambonir]

I think Thomson and Cotham have been reasonably creative and open-minded. A piggyback sounds great if they actually go 5/4 but the reality is they'd probably only go for five-six combined. One or the other if not both would eventually be replaced by a reliever either because they start to struggle or for match-ups. And then you do see your worst reliever more but at least he's not your #8.

If they piggybacked, Turnbull and Walker also likely would not be the duo. You'd at least want one of the LHPs. A month ago that wouldn't have seemed like a big deal either.

[phillychuck]

For example, next week, if I were managing, I'd tell Ranger he was going to start but we were intending to pull him on a short pitch count following the complete game. Then I'd try to use Turnbull or Walker for at least 3 IP in that game, keeping Turnbull stretched in that game or in another start. Try to slot Turnbull or Walker into a real long reliever slot once a week and let the other one start. That would give each of them about 120-140 IP for the year.

[andyb]

Except 150 is the new 200 IP season. Nola and Wheeler are both capable of 200, but very few pitchers can do 200 in today's game. 150 IP is a very full load for a fully healthy 5th starter.

170-180 is really the new 200. We still expect 32 5-inning average starts out of our back end guys. The reality is few stay healthy or effective the entire season (remember 5th starters are generally not that good. Anybody think Bailey Falter will make 32 starts this year if fully healthy?).

I generally trust Cotham here. I just don't know if they are deferring to Walker's contract (being one on the board who has generally been fine with that contract - the price of average is $9 million/WAR).

Frankly the other guy we should be discussing in the "who to demote for no fault of their own" conversation is Sanchez. He has little track record beyond last season of pitching a fair number of innings and I have as many questions about him putting in 170 innings as Walker or Turnbull. Walker's issues are health and declining stuff. Sanchez' are track record and whether the league will figure him out with more exposure. Turnbull's issues are numerous too (health, track record of effectiveness and longevity, league figuring him out too).

There is no right answer here, but Sanchez is actually the guy with relief experience and as a left-hander might actually make a better tandem with right-handed starters.

[zambonir]

Agreed, Ranger seeming to take a step up and being able to start his season on time has put him firmly in that #3 spot, and while I certainly rank Sanchez ahead of Walker based on recent performance it would make sense for him to be the tandem guy in order to have a lefty/righty.

I'm not ready to write Walker off either, assuming there is nothing wrong with him physically. He was underrated last year but also struggled in several ways (first innings and then his whole second half).

Seems like it would just be easier to delay things by telling Walker he needs a couple of more rehab starts than by making him piggyback Sanchez or Turnbull (given Walker's first inning problems why make him the front end of a tandem too).