GDT 4/17/19 New York Mets (Wheeler) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Arrieta)

[LoneStarPhan]

I didn't have a chance to watch the game today but it's always great to check in and see that the Phillies have already won a game.

Phillies win series from the Mets, 2 games to one. Keep winning series and the season will turn out pretty good.

Going to Colorado is always tough. I'd love to see them take 3 of the 4. I hope Segura and Herrera are not out very long but we know it is a long season and there are going to be injuries. A good chance for some bench players or call-ups to step up and contribute.

Phillies retain first place in the NL East with 11-6 record. Mets 1.5 games back with 10-8 record. Braves still playing Diamondbacks and will either be in second (10-7) or third (9-8) depending on the results of that game.

[zambonir]

And the Nats in 4th place, 8-8, but 3-2 against us.

[LoneStarPhan]

Final in ten innings, Diamondbacks 3, Braves 2. This Braves fall to 9-8 and are in third place, two games behind the Phillies and a half game behind the Mets. Nationals are fourth at 8-8 (2.5 games behind the Phils) and Marlins remain in last place, losing to the Cubs tonight, and are now 4-15, 8 games out.

[Austinfan]

Hector got really lucky, 94 MPH FB in the sweet spot.
Don't know why Arrieta started the 9th.
Kingery took a 98 MPH FB to RF, sweet swing, worked another count deep, so did Hernandez the AB before his HR, fouled off something like ten pitches.
A battle for 2B!

This lineup is looking deeper and deeper, if Quinn can come up and stay healthy, not sure anyone in the majors can match them top to bottom, including the bench.

[zambonir]

Heh yes you might say Hector's FB caught a bit too much of the strike zone. But that was part of the dance, not sure it was luck per se.

Arrieta starting the 9th was fine, the plan should have worked. Get one out and then let Morgan face the lefties. It didn't quite go how they drew it up but the alternative would have been to either let Morgan face Alonso, or another reliever. Either way we'd be complaining if he'd doubled.

[Austinfan]

I'm a fan, I've got 20/20 hindsight, I'm gonna complain away.

[bkeich]

The nice advantage Neris has is because he has such a good and deceptive splitter he can sometimes get away with a fastball in the zone. If the hitter is looking for the splitter he will take the fastball right down the middle thinking it will break out of the zone (or if he just reads it wrong). Still, better to not throw the pitch that fat, but he has a better chance of getting away with it than most, and every pitcher does it sometimes.

Neris a funny guy to me. He has some really good stuff and then a relatively flat, straight fastball. I have no idea if they can do anything, but I was always taught to just move a finger a little on the ball and you will get a little motion (at the cost of a little speed). I assume they have tried that with him, not sure why it doesnt work. He needs that motion on his fastball, and if could move away from RH hitters that would be best, but towards them would be ok. He just needs motion different than his plus plus splitter.

[Austinfan]

Pivetta has the same problem though it looks like he's starting to develop a two seamer.
No break on his 4 seamer at all, which gives you little margin of error.

As Kingery showed, velocity is almost irrelevant these days, when smaller IFs can take 98 MPH FBs deep, you'd better stop focusing on throw hard and start pitching smart.

[andyb]

Except velocity is still very relevant. Pitchers cannot win only with velocity. They need to change speeds and have good command. But having good velocity is still much better than not having it. There is a reason that most of the top starters of the past decade have had above average velocity (De Grom, Scherzer, Sale, etc.).

Pivetta's problem is command and control, not stuff.

[zambonir]

If Neris threw 98 he could certainly throw his fastball more! But just about any major league hitter, if they are guessing/ready for a fastball that is is in the zone, will hit it out. Especially if it's 98. Some of our most famous closers are also famous for giving up big home runs.

But certainly smarts and sequencing are important for a guy like Neris (and all relievers). So many of them are TTO pitchers now. Throwing his splitter 70% of the time it's mostly gonna be walks or Ks (so long as it breaks right).

[Austinfan]

Thing is almost all young pitchers throw 95, even the "slow" ones throw 92-94, only a small minority average below 92 these days. It's almost getting to the point where a junk baller like Irvin might have an edge simply because hitters don't see a lot of these guys anymore - the way Moyer was so slow it was hard to adjust to him..

[andyb]

That is just your speculation though. All pitchers don't throw 95. The average fastball velocity has not risen the past few years. The best pitchers on average throw harder. I really doubt someone like Irvin would have an advantage. There will always be soft tossers that succeed. There are just 10 of them in the minors for every pitcher that throws 95. Irvin has done a good job of advancing with his polished stuff. He just does not have much margin for error if he is to succeed.

More velocity is always better than less velocity. Independent of all the other factors that are necessary for success.

[Austinfan]

Problem is more velocity isn't independent, a lot of young pitchers sacrifice command for velocity and movement.

[schillingfan]

You have to have velocity in the first place before you can sacrifice.