GDT 4/11/18 Cincinnati Reds (Castillo, L) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Pivetta)

[tom81]

Ok so you do admit that he has continually improved to this point. Where did I say he will continue to improve from here?

There is no reason to say he can't maintain his play to his age 32 season,

You admit that he could maintain for a few years, I feel baring injury that this is likely. I feel that it makes economic and baseball sense to extent him now and that he will be a core player for our next post season run.

[andyb]

Ok so you do admit that he has continually improved to this point. Where did I say he will continue to improve from here?

The original comment was from another post that said he continues to improve. There is just little evidence of that other than a SSS start.

And yes, he could maintain his performance through age 32. Maybe a 30% chance of that. Odds are something like 10% improve, 30% maintain, 60% decline. IMO it makes little sense to extend him because that decreases the value of Kingery who has a higher ceiling (4+ WAR, not just 3). We already control him for 3 years. Why extend now when his best value is likely as a trade piece?

[julio]

[Hernandez] is a good player but will always have flaws. Little power and not a very instinctive baserunner. Those flaws limit his upside. It is fine to keep both him and Kingery for now. Beyond this year maybe not.

1. All players have flaws.
2. The question with Hernandez, as with any player, is do the positives outweigh the negatives (flaws)?
3. With Hernandez, there's one significant positive: his On-Base Percentage. His career OBP is .359. His OBP since the beginning of 2016 is .375. This in an organization that,until this spring, didn't emphasize (and arguably de-emphasized) the importance of OBP.

Yes, he has flaws. But do "little power and not a very instinctive baserunner" negate a .375 OBP at the top of the batting order?

I'm not a big fan of WAR (any flavor), because I find some of its components...suspect, and because given there's no standard, you can often just pick the version that supports your argument - which isn't analysis, but rhetoric. But that said, Cesar's bWAR the past two seasons were 3.2 and 3.1; his fWAR were 3.9 and 3.3. If you credit WAR at all, those are good numbers.

It's not obvious how the Phils should/will deal with having both Hernandez and Kingery. As andyb said, it's fine keeping both of them for now - this season is at least partially about shaking out the talent, finding out which of the infielders we go forward with (and which of the outfielders). I would not be at all surprised to see some kind of talent-compression trade, probably next winter, to move one of Santana-Hoskins-Herrera-Altherr-Williams-Quinn, and/or one of Franco-Crawford-Hernandez-Kingery. And if the Phils actually pursue and sign another big bat (Machado?), then multiple players from those lists will likely be moved.

Franco, Hoskins, Kingery, Altherr, Williams, Crawford - the jury's still out on all these guys. That makes trading for any of them fairly risky for another club. Cesar Hernandez and Carlos Santana are "knowns." At this point, given Santana's contract and age, that makes Hernandez probably the most tradeable player they have - his abilities are established, he's young enough to contribute to a club for some time, he's controllable, and they have other players to fill his lineup spot. Per andyb, I wouldn't expect upside growth from Hernandez - but if a contending club needs a leadoff hitter who won't kill you in the field, who can generate 3+ WAR (any version), that .375 OBP looks awfully attractive...and he's done this over the past 1,200 plate appearances.

[tom81]

IMO it makes little sense to extend him because that decreases the value of Kingery who has a higher ceiling (4+ WAR, not just 3).

This is my fundamental disagreement with most of the posters on this board. I have bought into the new age thinking and think that having Kingery playing multiple positions doesn’t hurt his value a bit, even if he plays at his sub optimal defensive position. Kingery is a superior athlete who brings extra value playing instead of guys who don’t bring as much value offensively to the table. Hernandez brings elite oba to the table as Julio posted. This team is best with Hernandez leading off and Kingery also in the lineup. I don’t see this needing to change for the next few years.

[andyb]

Cesar Hernandez and Carlos Santana are "knowns."

Don't disagree with most of your post. This season can easily be about learning more about your existing roster, especially the young players. Putting older players into a "known" category is dangerous though as their performance is likely to decline. I don't consider or expect Arrieta to be much more than a number 3 starter that is durable and can soak up innings. I don't expect a Cy Young. With Santana - yes he has a known track record of performance - but he is also 32 years old and his home runs declined from 34 to 23 last year when they were increasing across baseball. Do we "know" that he will continue to be an 800+ OPS player as he gets older? No. Maybe we can assume a softer decline as more certain than a young player like Kingery improving greatly, but add in the possibility of injury and I am not sure his future is any more certain.

The flaws I point out in Hernandez (lack of power, baserunning instincts) are there. He has also never been that good defensively and any decline there can counter any offensive gain. He is a good player. But at his age he is not that likely to get better (as with anyone his age). One can still like a player and think that it is better for the team to deal that player than it is to keep him. Some things need to shake out before a deal should be made (trade market, internal development) and some things could change (injuries, unexpected performance from some players), but at some point a move is likely beneficial.

[andyb]

This team is best with Hernandez leading off and Kingery also in the lineup. I don’t see this needing to change for the next few years.

This assumes a static reality though. It discounts the possibility that we would receive something for Hernandez in a trade. It also assumes that somebody else (Franco, Crawford) sits for Kingery AND we don't get a player like Machado or Donaldson or Arenado. It is the best decision for the roster today. It might not be the best decision for the roster tomorrow when you factor everything else in.

[allentown]

I think that you are under-valuing Hernandez a bit. Reading all you've written on both of them, I think you've fallen in love with the upside of Kingery and are finding excuses for why Hernandez must be placed to the side, sooner rather than later, so that Kingery can play the position for which he is best suited. You over-state Hernandez's lack of power, when his ISO has definitely been ticking up: .042 in 2013, .044 in 2014, .076 in 2015, .099 in 2016, .127 in 2017, and ,190 in VSSS this season. Some of those stats represent SSS, but the trend is clear. Hernandez was successful in 15 of 20 SB attempts last season and 3 of 4 this year. Hernandez had a slightly positive dWAR in both 2016 and 2017, but is slightly negative this year. I think you are partly remembering the old Cesar Hernandez of a few seasons back and partly succumbing to the Philly media pollution, which has basically seen Hernandez given the Abreu treatment. Hernandez is a very good player. Kingery could become better, but as of today he hasn't and we don't know how long it will take and it isn't a sure thing. I say this as a Kingery booster. I am a tad chastened by also having been a big Domonic Brown booster.

[julio]

Putting older players into a "known" category is dangerous though as their performance is likely to decline.

Absolutely agreed, over time. But if we're talking about Cesar Hernandez' market value, any significant decline in his OBP is likely several years off. He's 28. I agree that he's not going to get better with age! And - assuming that Kingery isn't a mirage - I agree that the Phils should have him on the market (for appropriate return only; we're not talking about "great trade - who'd we get?" here!). But we don't know yet that Kingery isn't a mirage, or that he isn't somehow going to plateau at a Cody Asche level of production. We may doubt that (I do), we may expect more than that - but we don't know yet. The guy's been in the big leagues for three weeks. Given that, I wouldn't be anxious to move Cesar Hernandez at this point...which is to say, the return for trading him now would have to be significantly higher than the return I would need if Kingery establishes that he's the second coming of Chase Utley, because the risk involved in trading Hernandez now is higher.

I think we're pretty much in agreement here. It probably will make sense to trade Cesar at some point - but probably not until Kingery's been around the league a few times, and demonstrates that he can respond as pitchers identify weaknesses, etc. And even then...while it remains to be seen, Kingery hasn't yet shown the ability to consistently put up a really high OBP (which Chase Utley did); if you swap Hernandez for Kingery, you're likely giving up that OBP, in exchange for more power and better defense. That can be a reasonable trade... but that depends on what else you have on the roster. We need some high-OBP guys at the top of the order, some table-setters. Santana's a short-termer; jury's out on Crawford (although he's shown that skill in the minors); Herrera? Hoskins looks to have a high OBP, but he's not your table-setter.

[zambonir]

This assumes a static reality though. It discounts the possibility that we would receive something for Hernandez in a trade. It also assumes that somebody else (Franco, Crawford) sits for Kingery AND we don't get a player like Machado or Donaldson or Arenado. It is the best decision for the roster today. It might not be the best decision for the roster tomorrow when you factor everything else in.

All true. But I could also see an OF getting traded. I don't generally like to do the fantasy baseball thing but imagine they sign Harper, trade Herrera in a package for Marcus Stroman and make Kingery the CF. That's probably a better team, with Hernandez at 2B, then the one with Herrera, Kingery at 2B, and who you might get for Hernandez (or Franco).

Or maybe Kingery just becomes the RF and you trade Nick Williams and Franco (while signing Machado) and Altherr is a 4th OF.

Anything is possible. I do think Andy's points are salient in terms of selling high on Hernandez, if indeed he has another season of 30 or 40 point OPS improvement. If you are not committed to Kingery as a super-utility guy (or at another position) you gotta move Cesar this off-season at the latest because his value might never be higher (due to perfect storm combination of track record, age, cost and controllability. Tacking on FA years won't necessarily make him more appealing to some teams).Conversely, if he settles back into the same player he's been, while there is nothing wrong with that player, he apparently hasn't had much value around MLB over the last two seasons.

But right now, I don't think he is playing every day to boost his trade value.

Hopefully Crawford will get his act together and 12 months from now, even if Hernandez is still here, he'll be just as viable a lead-off candidate, possibly even a better one

[Austinfan]

Right now Hernandez is a better player than Kingery.
Next year, we'll see.
Kingery needs to work on his plate discipline.

[jimbomill]

Right now Hernandez is a better player than Kingery

Right Now:
Kingery Ave. is .280, Hernandez is .275
Kingery OPS is .855, Hernandez is .833.

Hernandez has the edge in OBP and Kingery has it in Slugging.
Kingery is second on the club in RBIs.
Right now, I can't say Hernandez is better, but I can say both are pretty good.

[tom81]

I will grant you that a SSS hot start my be overstating this years improvement. Looking deeper into this year's improvement though does give some hope that this is more than just a SSS fluke. His plate discipline has significantly improved so far this year, his O-Swing% is 14.5% this year vs his career 24.5% which has driven his BB% doubling to 22.2% from 10.1%.

A week later and his numbers are pretty similar. Fangraphs commented on this improvement too.

Cesar Hernandez Swings Less, Hits More | Community – FanGraphs Baseball