18 Cincinnati Reds (Castillo, L) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Pivetta)

Philsmania 2018-04-12 17:20:06 UTC #141

I was thinking the same thing myself. This homestand didn't exactly feature stiff competition but still, they took care of business. And, let's hope that it has turned down the temperature of the phan base which was turning into a mob out to get Kapler. At the same time, if they keep playing well, I hope it doesn't unrealistically boost phan expectations. Between the Eagles, Villanova and the Sixers' hot streak, Philadelphia sports fans are beginning to get a little ahead of themselves, talking like they expect the Sixers and Flyers to both basically breeze to championships here in 2018.

phillychuck 2018-04-12 17:30:39 UTC #142

Flyers threw a lot of cold water on one of those expectations last night.

zambonir 2018-04-12 18:57:14 UTC #143

Out-of-control euphoria is just the other side of being negadelphian, though if there were really any Flyers fans expecting an easy time I certainly haven't met them. Still, it's entirely possible the Super Bowl win will usher in a new generation of Philly sports fans who won't know pain, if all goes well over the next five years.

The pie-eyed view would be that the Phillies are actually ahead of the Nationals right now, and the 10-1 Mets just lost their catcher and are built on a fragile foundation. If Pivetta keeps this up and Arietta comes through they could win a lot of games over the next three weeks. The early road losses to Atlanta and NY don't look so bad on paper right now either.

andyb 2018-04-12 19:15:52 UTC #144

I am happy with the first couple of weeks, even recognizing that we have played some bad teams to get over .500. More important stuff is that they have successfully implemented a strategy of having 10 starters for 8 positions. Helps to have a young team willing to try stuff. Measurable signs of progress from Pivetta and even Velasquez makes the rotation look much more stable now. Bullpen has been a bit shaky though hopefully getting Hunter and Neshek back will help as I have my yearly fear that Neris' splitter is going to be less effective as batters lay off it.

Philsmania 2018-04-12 19:25:32 UTC #145

A friend of mine and I were talking about this the other night ago. While Kapler has made some head-scratching moves, this team does not play dumb baseball. Even Herrera who is prone to stretches where his loopiness gets the best of him on the field as well has been on his game.

Philsmania 2018-04-12 19:30:17 UTC #146

Welllllll, the 15-2 loss was really bad. I would say that game was where Kapler's only really inexcusable gaffe--the pitching change fiasco--occurred. Otherwise, yes, the Mets games were close losses to good pitching.

zambonir 2018-04-12 21:33:42 UTC #147

yeah I'm not taking Kapler off the hook for either of his moves in the Atlanta series, but the Braves might not be terrible (at least, not Reds/Marlins terrible).

Arizona is the one big test this month.

Austinfan 2018-04-13 15:43:18 UTC #148

Neris will get it together, just has to get his splitter working, he did with his last batter.
JP's power isn't surprising given his frame, they've been working on his swing to generate power.
Hernandez however, that's pure bat speed.

Pivetta looked good, needs to get sharper with his breaking stuff, but he's developing a two seamer with real movement, as his 4 seamer is straight as an arrow, he needs that to keep hitters off balance.
This year he should just work on the two seamer and breaking stuff.
But he won't take the next step up until he develops a change up. That could make him a #1/#2.
But he's got Halladay like strength, can throw 95 with his 100th pitch, and his motion is smoother than Velasquez.

tom81 2018-04-13 15:58:37 UTC #149

Speed and strength, he put on 15 lbs of muscle this offseason.

baseballoldie 2018-04-13 20:25:51 UTC #150

FYI - that Hernandez article is from Feb 2017 and relates to the previous offseason not this past offseason. I can see how it would be confusing though because the Phillies have Hernandez listed on their current roster at 160lbs.

tom81 2018-04-13 21:39:20 UTC #151

I did get sloppy with my link and posted one from last year where he was up to 180. This one says he did the same program this offseason and bulked up more. He’s probably over 190 now, plenty size to have HR power especially if he has a quick bat.

Austinfan 2018-04-13 21:44:47 UTC #152

It's one of those tough decisions, if Hernandez keeps improving, they may just have to sign him long-term and make him the 2B indefinitely, but it's not like "settling" for a 3-4 WAR player who's 28 is the worst thing in the world.

Kingery has shown he can handle multiple positions, after that throw to the plate, I think he has the arm strength to play anywhere, and the speed and body control to be plus defensively anywhere, including SS and CF.

When you can put 11 potential starting players out there, with Santana the only one over 30, and easily replaced by Hoskins at 1B, you're pretty solid. Which takes the pressure off the farm system, whenever Quinn is ready, they get that much deeper.

zambonir 2018-04-14 00:13:35 UTC #153

Hernandez is controlled through 2021 so while they certainly could sign him to control costs and manage AAV, there's no pressure either. I don't think he's going anywhere though, and Kingery isn't either. We'll see how the left side of the IF plays out.

andyb 2018-04-14 01:48:45 UTC #154

And there is really no indication he is "continually improving". He is a good player but will always have flaws. Little power and not a very instinctive baserunner. Those flaws limit his upside. It is fine to keep both him and Kingery for now. Beyond this year maybe not.

zambonir 2018-04-14 02:01:28 UTC #155

Well, he does have a .940 OPS and two home runs already, which would put him on pace for around 30. That's obviously not gonna happen but even 15 would be a nice jump. If he has an .820-.825 season in the end he's still improving. He can improve his baserunning too. And of course any improvement makes him more tradeable.

Kingery also has two HRs. But we still don't know what his non-Reading power ceiling is either. I have no problem having them both on the team, whether Kingery continues to do the Zobrist thing or ends up somewhere else. I think in the end it will be as much about deciding who else they want to keep among the current position player group.

andyb 2018-04-14 02:09:27 UTC #156

But that is all small sample size. Plus, the baserunning could get worse if he loses speed as he gets older. There are just much better odds of the 24-year-old getting better than the 28-year-old. None of this is a strike against him. He is a good player. But if this organization wants to maximize its resources, the best thing eventually is probably to trade him when a good deal comes up. There are so many uncertain elements now (Franco, Kingery, free agents like Machado next year) that there is no hurry to do anything.

Best thing tonight was Velasquez. Yes the last 2 starts have not been against the best teams, but if he puts things together and becomes a mid-rotation starter this rotation is starting to look pretty solid. And Velasquez has the age and stuff where improvement is very possible (unlike Hernandez where major improvement is unlikely).

mdougherty12 2018-04-14 04:23:44 UTC #157

Hernandez is controlled through 2020, just shy of 4 years service time at the beginning of this season.

zambonir 2018-04-14 06:07:57 UTC #158

Sorry, I meant he becomes a FA in 2021. And as andy notes, he's not a kid. Even if he does get better every year, no reason to start buying out the years where that would likely stop.

Of course his controllability and relatively low salary are also part of his trade value, if he gets you the right piece when you need it, great. But it's possible the best version of the 2019 Phillies still includes him.

tom81 2018-04-14 11:51:40 UTC #159

There are indications that he has "continually improved" even if you choose to ignore them. His last three years OPS are .687, .764, .793. Isn't that trend of +.050 increase a year "continually improving?" This year it looks like he may have stepped it up even more, I will grant you that a SSS hot start my be overstating this years improvement. Looking deeper into this year's improvement though does give some hope that this is more than just a SSS fluke. His plate discipline has significantly improved so far this year, his O-Swing% is 14.5% this year vs his career 24.5% which has driven his BB% doubling to 22.2% from 10.1%. His hit profile has changed in that he is pulling the ball more, 50% pulls this year vs a career 34.7%. You swing at less bad pitches, you pull the ball more and you are stronger will result in more walks, higher OPA, more HR's higher SLG. The better lineup around him also will make him a better hitter, less pressure to do it all yourself and more pressure on opposing pitchers because of the consequences of having better hitters behind him. He has a chance to put up Lenny Dykstra type leadoff numbers. There is no reason to say he can't maintain his play to his age 32 season, his body type doesn't profile to quickly breakdown and any future falloff in speed can somewhat be offset but his increased strength and plate discipline. I think there is great value in trying to sign him to a contract that buys out his first two FA years even if we end up trading him.

andyb 2018-04-14 12:26:53 UTC #160

But players typically peak at age 27. He'll be 28 in a few weeks. When you say someone is continually improving you then look at previous years when players typically DO improve. To imply this improvement will CONTINUE is mere speculation. Yes he could easily maintain his play for the next few years. There is more chance of that than him substantially improving though. It is just as possible that the "athletic" parts of his game start to drop off (defense and running and bat speed) as the mental parts of his game continue to improve (stuff like swinging at fewer bad pitches).

When evaluations always focus on the good instead of the bad those evaluations tend to be flawed. Hernandez already had a drop in defense last year that was as large as his improvement on offense.