GDT 4/10/24 Philadelphia Phillies (Nola, Aa) @ St. Louis Cardinals (Lynn)

[HopeSpringsEternal]

While Nola isn’t dominating other teams, he’s consistently taking the ball every 5 days and putting up decent numbers every year. His career WHIP is 1.133, which is pretty darn good for a starting pitcher averaging 200 innings every year. He’s managed to avoid the elbow injuries that are plaguing pitchers throughout MLB. I know he missed some time a few years back with some arm problems, but he managed to rehab the issue come back and continue pitching without surgery.

[andyb]

Where is the evidence that velocity over 95 has marginal value? There just isn't any. Of course command and multiple pitches is needed. Duh. We don't need anybody to tell us that.

We agree that Nola throwing 95 is better than Nola throwing 92. What we have no clue about though is whether Nola can succeed if he is permanently throwing less hard. You are just speculating at that. If Nola gets the correct speed differential on his curve and change along with command he'll be fine. So far his change has been left over the plate and that is usually his worst pitch. But that is largely a command issue.

You seem to talk about velocity as a way to make your larger point whatever that is. You don't like any long free agent contract. We get that. The bigger issue for Nola will likely be staying healthy rather than losing a couple mph. And I would be just as concerned or even MORE CONCERNED about Wheeler's contract. He throws hard enough and has a history where injuries are a very real concern. But I guess you like him so you ignore that.

[Austinfan]

There are few pitchers who can throw above 95 with consistent command and movement, probably b/c the mechanics of really high velocity (high effort) interferes with those other aspects, and only a few genetic freaks can throw high velocity with the "easy motion" associated with top pitchers and FBs with both velocity and spin/movement. And we just saw Strider break down. Wheeler broke down a lot early in his career, and became more effective as a Philly with a little less velocity and more command.

Painter might be one of these guys, he should probably be 10-20 lbs heavier when he returns to the mound, and if he can use that added strength (especially lower body) he has the potential to be a 95+ thrower that has command.

But we've seen guys like Alvarado, SD, Marte, Soto all get lite up throwing in the upper 90s, if they don't have command of their FB and one secondary pitch, velocity doesn't help them. What turned Alvarado around, for example, wasn't more velocity, but developing a low 90s cutter he could throw for strikes.

[andyb]

Your entire post is just heresay. There is lots of evidence that pitchers with more velocity are more effective on average.

There are also examples of players like Nola where velocity is less important. You somehow come up with a theory that velocity is not that important for those who have it like Alvarado. But suddenly important for someone like Nola. And Jose Alvarado is generally more effective on those days he is throwing 99-100 (meaning his cutter is 94-95) than those days he is only throwing 96-97 and his cutter is 92-93. None of that means control and command are not important (see Seranthony). One can just get whiplash trying to make sense of your conflicting opinions.

[Austinfan]

No, my point is velocity has diminishing marginal value above 95 MPH b/c there tends to be a tradeoff for most pitchers.
Nola would be more effective throwing 98, but I doubt he could do so without totally losing command of his FB (even if he could reach that velocity mechanically).

The reason the best pitchers are freaks is it's rare to have someone with the arm/body strength to throw above 95 consistently and be able to command that pitch, and to be able to throw secondary pitches without a "tell." If you're using max effort to get into the upper 90s, it's hard to throw a secondary pitch without giving it away, one reason the cutter has become popular for these kinds of pitchers b/c it's similar to a FB.

And it's why most high velocity pitchers are RPs, max effort is easier to sustain for an inning and you only need to master one secondary pitch (usually cutter, splitter or slider).

[andyb]

No, my point is velocity has diminishing marginal value above 95 MPH b/c there tends to be a tradeoff for most pitchers.

But where is there evidence of that? Every pitcher loses some control when they throw a little harder. The ones that sit 96-97 can throw a much better 98 though than the ones that sit 90-92. It is just a non-sensical point because it assumes pitchers that sit 95 are the same as the ones that sit 92. On average the pitchers that sit 95 are simply better.

Most high velocity pitchers are relief pitchers because it is easier to throw hard for 1 inning rather than 6. And you need to learn fewer pitches also. Jordan Hicks is a different pitcher starting than relieving. So was Curt Schilling. But it sure helps their results to throw 98 when they need to. It makes all their other pitchers better.

Data on velocity - this is old but doubt things have really changed.

Fastball Velocity and Its Effect on Hitters

[Austinfan]

Too simplistic, all things held equal, more velocity better than less velocity. But all things are rarely equal.
To do this right, you'd have to study pitchers and whether hard throwers are more effective or are there tradeoffs - like more walks, more deep counts (batters have much higher OPS when ahead in the count) and so forth.
A really good study would take into account movement/spin as well as velocity.

Plus there's a self-selection process, as pitchers throw harder, batter are selected for those with shorter swings and young batters with quicker reaction time, which over time erodes some of the advantage of velocity. As hitters focus on hitting high velocity, they may lose the ability to adjust to off-speed pitches.

Red Queen effect.