Velocity over 95 has marginal value compared to command, spin and a portfolio of pitches.
Especially if FB lacks movement and delivery lacks deception, we've seen that with our bullpen.
ML hitters can handle 100 MPH if down the middle without movement.
93-95 is enough if a pitcher has command and portfolio
91-93 tends to work better for LH pitchers (see Ranger), smaller margin of error.
89-91 is really hard to make it work on a regular basis, no margin for error. Only a handful of ML starters get away with this.
Problem is that with a low velocity FB, hitters can wait and keep their hands back and have a better chance of adjusting to off-speed pitches, especially curves and changeups, hard to create the 10+ MPH differential needed to keep a hitter off-balance.
Whereas if you throw 95 with movement, an 85 MPH cutter/slider leaves a hitter little time to react, and a 82 MPH changeup/splitter freezes hitters.
When Nola is at his best, he uses a 95 MPH 4-seamer a few times a game as a "show me" pitch to move eyes, relies on a 92-93 2-seamer with a lot of movement, and mixes a curve and changeup that tend to fade out of the K-zone.
One reason Wheeler is adding a splitter is his velocity seems to be slowly declining, his motion isn't conducive to a changeup, but a splitter allows him to throw off hitter's timing the way a changeup does for other pitchers (Ranger, Suarez).
