GDT 10/24/23 Arizona Diamondbacks (Pfaadt) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Suárez, R)

[Lucky_Beagle]

Had the team lost to the Braves I would have been ok with the season, losing to the Dbacks takes away the thought that the team actually did better in the playoffs than many expected. Losing to the Dbacks the way they did (home field advantage, up 2-0 games, up 5-2 in a game, up 3-2 with 2 home games) sure changes the feelings on the playoffs (season).

[zambonir]

I'm still not convinced the no-hitter "broke" Lorenzen. As has been rehashed repeatedly here he was an inconsistent pitcher all year. But regardless, once they removed him from the rotation he should have been able to be a key part of the bullpen, and not just a mop-up guy given his career experience. Instead he was behind Soto and Kerkering. But, the team's faith in Kimbrel (who is really the guy they might have broke) was bigger.

Otherwise, agreed. This was a good team and a fun season. It's very hard to get to the World Series or even the NLCS every year. I hope they can squeeze one more year out of the Realmuto/Castellanos/Schwarber/Wheeler (and Hoskins?) core. I don't think there is 10 years in the desert ahead and there are some nice younger pieces but it will be tricky to make another run around Harper and Turner before they start declining.

[zambonir]

Phillies went 7-7 against Dbacks this year.

[allentown]

As has been rehashed repeatedly here he was an inconsistent pitcher all year.

You're talking about his performance prior to joining Phillies. The Phillies tweaked his approach. He was consistently good with Phillies until he threw 121 pitches. That was abuse.

[el-pietro]

Consistently good over two games?

[andyb]

A 121 pitch outing is more likely to contribute to long term injuries than a regression in Lorenzen's current performance once he had a couple of weeks to recover. There is no reason to think that Lorenzen is hurt as his velocity is fine. He is just an average pitcher that does not miss too many bats. Such a pitcher always walks a fine line and I think the inconsistency is the most likely answer for his performance.

They probably should have done the bullpen move a few weeks earlier to really give him a chance to see if his stuff could play up a bit in shorter outings.

[Philsmania]

Phillies are also going to have to figure out how to develop stars within their own system. Have just completely failed at that the past 10 years. Nola is pretty much the one exception (maybe Stott will be too). No many failures though. I'm glad Middleton likes to spend money, but homegrown talent seems to be a key ingredient to a championship.

The two guys you mention, Nola and Stott--and Bohm, for that matter--were first round picks who were basically fast-tracked to the Majors. All three spent no more than one full season in the minors (Nola spent less than that, making his ML debut thirteen months after he was drafted). It's hard to say we developed them. We need more second to fifth round picks, diamonds in the rough who were drafted later or even unsigned and international players to become at least ML mainstays if not stars. Then, we can say that we're developing people. The Braves, Dodgers, Rays and Astros are probably outliers in the way they just keep churning quality guys out of their system year after year and it's unrealistic to expect the Phillies--or most organizations, for that matter--to ever be that. But still, we got to do better at developing guys.

[Philsmania]

We still finished as one of the last 4 standing. 26 other teams didnt get to play in the LCS. 26 other fan bases didnt get the chance to see a thrilling series, even if we lost.

I thank this team for giving us the entertainment this year. For Schwarbombs and no hitters, for Standing Ovations and improbably fast comebacks from TJ surgery. For infuriating us and giving us the highs and lows.

The loss HURTS bad.. but the last 2 years we have been blessed with a Red October. And we do have an owner that cares and wants to see the team go all the way and not just worry about profit.

Ill take this loss in the LCS anytime over the doldrums we had from 2012-2021.

Teams go cold.. players go cold.. they are human no matter how much they make. We went cold at the wrong time but Im still glad we got to see this team try.

Leaving the ballpark Monday night, I had a very, very bad feeling about game 7 and my feeling watching the game on TV last night from the get-go was probably more resignation than anything else.

The Phillies are still the Phillies. The franchise that brought us 1964, Black Friday, games 4 and 6 of the 1993 World Series and the upset defeats in 2010 and 2011 simply added another layer to its not-so-special, in-the-end-almost-always-finds-a-way-to-snatch-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory aura. It's simply who they are.

Yet, here we are, rooting for them year after year.

[andyb]

Yet, here we are, rooting for them year after year.

Rooting for an imperfect team is fun. I definitely felt stronger about the 2008 team which did not have much pitching beyond Hamels than the subsequent versions with Lee and then Halladay that were supposed to win.

[zambonir]

Right. The idea that they tweaked his approach in any significant - or, likely, sustainable - way is utter nonsense. He pitched two days after he was traded to the Phillies and then the no-hitter. And he'd just had a solid July, which continued for two starts. But overall his August resembled his June and his September resembled his April. And if you're really going to argue that Phillies are such pitching approach geniuses I reckon they know about workload and pitch counts too.

Regardless, Lorenzen still should have had the stuff and the ability, and did have the relief pitching experience, to be the 6th or 7th guy in the bullpen not just Dylan Covey's replacement.

But it also doesn't matter. The argument was the Phillies failed by not acquiring a reliever at the deadline. I'm still not buying that because most of the time you get David Robertson or worse, not Paul Sewald. And you overpay. But Lorenzen was the guy they acquired, so whatever happened there, it was a fail by the organization.

[zambonir]

Yet, here we are, rooting for them year after year.

I mean, I think we - and definitely you! - like it that way. We're not a city of frontrunners.

But as was noted yesterday the Phillies have been pretty dang successful since the '70s. And also, nearly every city thinks their team is the most cursed and ill-fated. My Astros fan friends always felt that way which was ludicrous given how young the franchise was and that the Cubs and Red Sox still existed w/o a championship at the time. But to them, it was true.

The two guys you mention, Nola and Stott--and Bohm, for that matter--were first round picks who were basically fast-tracked to the Majors. All three spent no more than one full season in the minor

Nola was close to a finished product but you still get as much credit for drafting as developing, and fast development is still development. This team still has Suarez, Hoskins and Seranthony for diamonds in the rough. (But wow, I just realized that as of today Scott Kingery's Phillies career is officially over).

For sure the minor league system still shows all kinds of cracks from the Gillick, Amaro and Klentak eras. At least they have Realmuto and Marsh to show for it in trades (as well as Alvarado and, go figure, Sanchez). But the Barber era does seem much better. And meanwhile the Rangers are in the World Series two years into Josh Bonifay's tenure, not that you can say he developed much of the roster, but it's not nothing.

[andyb]

We probably paid for reliever overuse in the end. Rob really needed to lessen the load on some pitchers like Kimbrel in the 2nd half of the season. Kimbrel had 71 regular season appearances and then 7 more in the postseason. He is not 24 any more. Hoffman had 71 total appearances including the postseason. The only reason Alvarado and Dominguez had less was they got hurt. Soto was at 74 appearances and Strahm had over 60 outings and 93 IP after throwing 44.1 the previous year.

The modern game where pitchers only go 5 innings just kills a bullpen full of guys that throw 98 and might need a few days of rest. We preferred a Marte over Vasquez in our 40-man roster decisions because he has a much higher ceiling, but maybe we would have been better with a guy like that who can just soak up innings for the staff.

[Philsmania]

We probably paid for reliever overuse in the end. Rob really needed to lessen the load on some pitchers like Kimbrel in the 2nd half of the season. Kimbrel had 71 regular season appearances and then 7 more in the postseason. He is not 24 any more. Hoffman had 71 total appearances including the postseason. The only reason Alvarado and Dominguez had less was they got hurt. Soto was at 74 appearances and Strahm had over 60 outings and 93 IP after throwing 44.1 the previous year.

The modern game where pitchers only go 5 innings just kills a bullpen full of guys that throw 98 and might need a few days of rest. We preferred a Marte over Vasquez in our 40-man roster decisions because he has a much higher ceiling, but maybe we would have been better with a guy like that who can just soak up innings for the staff.

I was about to say the same thing. Modern analytics needs to re-examine its no-third-time-through-the-lineup rule.

[zambonir]

That's amazing Soto pitched that much. Ironically Strahm was the guy I always worried about given he did that starting pitching stint and had exceeded his career high by a lot (other than the year he was a full-time starter).

Also Lorenzen had exceeded his career innings before we traded for him - another reason why it was so shocking they let him finish the no-hitter, but he may have been headed for that crater regardless.

Had they not overused Kimbrel and Hoffman at the time they did, to compensate for the absence and at times, ineffectiveness of Alvarado and Dominguez, maybe they wouldn't have won as many games. The six-man rotation also hurt the bullpen. Vasquez didn't really lose his roster spot to Marte (who had options), he lost it to Lorenzen (and they picked Covey over him).

[zambonir]

I was about to say the same thing. Modern analytics needs to re-examine its no-third-time-through-the-lineup rule.

Yeah but I don't think the analytics are wrong about it. Andy is just saying the bullpen usage has to be adjusted accordingly (due not just to fact that relievers are used more but because of how hard they throw).

And the idea that the analytics is really driving it is likely wrong too. Nobody was pulling Wheeler early this year unless he deserved it. Nola definitely deserved. And Ranger and Walker just weren't good enough or durable enough to go six (and unless you get everybody out you're still facing a few guys for the third time before that).

[allentown]

With arm injuries, lack of command often precedes loss of velocity.

[andyb]

Agree. It is just the certainty that people connect the dots on Lorenzen and that one start. Absent any decline in velocity and given that he did have extra rest after that, we'll just never know why he declined. It is easy to claim it was all due to the no-hitter. There just is not much evidence to back it up.

[andyb]

Analytics are more short term oriented than long term. At least how they are now used. Higher velocity is better than lower velocity in any single game. Less is known about longer term performance though.

In hindsight Rob probably realizes he should have been giving Covey 2-3 outings a week throughout the year. Especially when we had 6 starters that meant we had a 7-man bullpen with one guy rarely pitching. That just does not work well unless your starters are consistently getting into the 7th inning.

[zambonir]

Crudely, I'm not sure this bullpen was any different than the '93 bullpen (which had plenty of issues in the World Series beyond Mitch's combination of exhaustion and wildness) or the '80 bullpen (which obviously didn't give up the losing runs but sure had a lot of chances to). Even in '08 Ryan Madson blew two saves in the World Series but the bats saved him both times (and then Lidge did). Sometimes they just get you.

There's certainly a philosophical difference to the idea that a 6th or 7th inning reliever might be better than the starter but that has as much to do with the type of arms (and the way hitters hit these days) as the third-time-through-the order approach.

[allentown]

The overuse of our top relievers was worse in the playoffs than in the regular season, with more multiple innings. We had a lot of wasted roster spots -- I don't remember Walker being used at all, Lorenzen barely used, almost no use of bench position players.