Future plans 2020-2022

[phillychuck]

Position by position:

C--resign Realmuto, give Grullon the chance to win the back-up job. Knapp is fine if he doesn't

1B--we have got to get Hoskins back on track. We need a high 800's or low 900's OPS out of this position.

2B--Kingery is the Phils' obvious long-term plan here. I suspect he will be above average in SLG, well above average in defense, but below average in OBP. If he can't improve his OBP he is at best a 2-WAR player.

SS--Stott is the long-term plan. I'd trade Segura for value and try to upgrade here waiting for Stott. Gregorius is a good stop-gap if the Yankees let him go.

3B--I'd play Franco until Bohm is ready, which I suspect is early to mid 2020. I'm pretty optimistic about him.

RF--Harper, obviously

CF--Haseley Cutch platoon right now? Where does Herrera fit in if at all?

LF--Cutch and Bruce right now.

SP--I'm fine going forward with Nola and Eflin, and hoping Howard and Seabold (and maybe Mdina) can help. 2 free agents would make a deep rotation. Pivetta and Velasquez would be the 7th and 8th starters and "long" relievers.

Bullpen--statistically our awful bullpen was average this year. Don't put money here, save it for the rest of the team. Have to hope Seranthony can come back, as well as Morgan.

[zambonir]

I think Franco and Herrera are gone (however the latter happens).

This is a fairly conservative approach and that's not what they are hiring a new manager to do. Middleton wants to win now and the other guys have jobs to save.

I don't think you can pencil Bohm in for this season; he has to bust the door down. Even if he repeats his Reading OPS in AAA that won't necessarily translate to MLB right away, and they aren't sure about his defense either.

I still think Hernandez stays and they either sign/trade for a CF or a 3B while using Kingery at the other position (or both. Haseley still plays too of course). Cutch in CF is not viable; we don't even know if Cutch in LF is viable. Ditto Bruce, health-wise.

The only question is how big they go to get that 3B or OF, and/or what they do with Segura. Could also non-tender Cesar, move Segura to 2B and pursue Gregorius.

There are going to be trade options. Not all of them will cost top prospects. Hopefully Klentak can find some off-season value the same way he actually did pretty well with in-season pick-ups (among the position players at least).

[Austinfan]

Given that Kingery posted a 3.0/2.7 (BR/FG) WAR this season and Haseley 1.7/0.9 in a third of a season, I think there's a good chance they'll be fixtures going forward.

[Philsmania]

Position by position:

C--resign Realmuto, give Grullon the chance to win the back-up job. Knapp is fine if he doesn't

1B--we have got to get Hoskins back on track. We need a high 800's or low 900's OPS out of this position.

2B--Kingery is the Phils' obvious long-term plan here. I suspect he will be above average in SLG, well above average in defense, but below average in OBP. If he can't improve his OBP he is at best a 2-WAR player.

SS--Stott is the long-term plan. I'd trade Segura for value and try to upgrade here waiting for Stott. Gregorius is a good stop-gap if the Yankees let him go.

3B--I'd play Franco until Bohm is ready, which I suspect is early to mid 2020. I'm pretty optimistic about him.

RF--Harper, obviously

CF--Haseley Cutch platoon right now? Where does Herrera fit in if at all?

LF--Cutch and Bruce right now.

SP--I'm fine going forward with Nola and Eflin, and hoping Howard and Seabold (and maybe Mdina) can help. 2 free agents would make a deep rotation. Pivetta and Velasquez would be the 7th and 8th starters and "long" relievers.

Bullpen--statistically our awful bullpen was average this year. Don't put money here, save it for the rest of the team. Have to hope Seranthony can come back, as well as Morgan.

I generally agree with the above though I am not as down on Segura as others are and am fine with him at SS and I think we may see a one year stopgap at thirdbase like a Todd Frazier until Bohm comes up. If Hoskins continues his downward spiral, Bohm heads to first with Stott possibly moving to third. For the rotation, Nola at #1, Arrieta at #4 and Eflin at #5 with two free agents between Nola and them would probably work. Who knows what will happen with Herrera?

[andyb]

Kingery is an interesting case. His defense should be plus at 2B. That would mean we could live with his second half offense (710 OPS) if that is more close to reality than his first half (889 OPS). The above average power and below average OBP seems right. We just don't know, however, if the league adjusted on him a bit that will limit his offense to a level slightly below what he showed in 2019.

Haseley is mostly an unknown. Defensive stats are all SSS and his offense the second time around was not great. If they dial the ball back to previous norms is he ever more than a 10-15 HR guy? That won't play in a corner if it is true, which makes the evaluation of his CF important.

I do feel they need to make a move that is not obvious at the moment. While there are questions around Kingery and Haseley, they are also tradeable commodities to get something better. Not sure Segura gets much value as he is now fairly valued compared to his contract. So the best we might be able to do is trade him for another 2 WAR player that earns $15 million or so (where the future performance of a 30-year-old carries risk).

Adding the 2 starters should be a possibility. Or maybe going consciously to a new Tampa style approach of openers and 3-4 inning outings from a variety of pitchers. There is more value to be tapped from Velasquez and Pivetta from a decent pitching coach. Which 2 pitchers to add will be driven in part by that strategy (though Cole needs to be number 1 on any shopping list).

[zambonir]

Would have said the same about Franco and Herrera not long ago. Herrera was looking like an MVP and Gold Glover, even.

I mean, I have no doubt Kingery will be a fixture, we just don't know if he's an all-star. Also have no doubt Haseley is a viable major league outfielder, we just don't know if he's a sure-thing starting corner OF (with the bat) or CF (with the glove) just yet.

This is a thread that includes 2022, sure, but the team in 2022 won't much resemble the team in 2020. The managerial chance cinches a win-now approach that was already well under way last off-season.

As long as they don't sign or trade for a CF or 3B on a multi-year deal our two kids will have every chance to take over mid-year or next. Unless one of them is traded of course.

[Austinfan]

Haseley would be fine as a corner OF, there are very few plus fielding corner OFs, Haseley could be a plus plus guy.
Which means he doesn't have to pound the ball to be a 3-4 WAR LF, just be a solid hitter: .280/.350/430 or so.

[BostonRoss]

That's a lot of speculation based on 67 major league games.

[zambonir]

We already have a guy who's not leaving RF for 2-3 years. .780 and a gold glove only cuts it in LF if you've got a lot of offense coming from other spots, and even then I doubt it means more than 2.5 WAR.

CF is the place for Haseley and he'll have plenty of opportunities to show it next year, I just wouldn't ink him into 150 starts (nor expect McCutchen to play there. Of course right now Quinn and Herrera still exist, but...).

[andyb]

Haseley would be fine as a corner OF, there are very few plus fielding corner OFs, Haseley could be a plus plus guy.
Which means he doesn't have to pound the ball to be a 3-4 WAR LF, just be a solid hitter: .280/.350/430 or so.

We actually don't know Haseley is plus plus in LF. If he does not have the arm for RF, LF has a pretty high offesnsive bar. Herrera was better than Haseley offensively and defensively (because he was plus in CF) when he was 23 and that did not turn out well even before the off field stuff.

We get that you love Haseley. The odds of him being what you think he will be are just not that great. If he is a .730 OPS LF he is just not that good. If he is below average in CF he again is not that good. There is a lot of work for him to go to be a consistent 3-4 WAR player and counting on something that is not really in the scouting reports or his minor league record is counting on a lot.

He is a decent player that can help the team. Or be good trade bait. He is just not more than that at this point.

[VoteForKalas]

Resigning Realmuto likely mandates a 5 yr deal which means he transitions to 1B at some point

I'd time that move with the best estimate of Hoskins' trade value, age etc.

Kingery is best at 2B. I'd stop screwing around with him; dangle Hernandez and put Kingery at 2B
If you cannot trade Hernandez, then he goes on the bench

Cutch is unlikely to be better than last season even when healthy; keep him in the LF rotation, but definitely give Haseley opportunities and/or find another vet who can provide some value there too

Franco and Herrera are gone in my view; I'd try to trade them for value, but likely not much unfortunately

I think you need to upgrade 3B, CF and the rotation with 2 reliable and healthy options. I keep everyone there except for VV. I've seen enough of that bad movie, time to cut hair.

Pen should be healthier next season hopefully; go with quantity and stop giving out multi year deals like candy

Segura at SS and Harper in RF stay put obviously

[zambonir]

I don't see why Realmuto would have to transition to 1B, and what's more, he might not even be good enough offensively to do so. He'll be 29 to start this season. Chooch was still excellent at 33 and adequate at 34/35, but wouldn't have been worth having anywhere other than catcher. Molina's 37. Kurt Suzuki just played this season at 35. Yeah, like those guys, JT has to be exception not the rule to some extent , but for what you're going to be paying him, he'd better be.

Let's hope Hoskins bounces back but I still think you trade him sooner rather than later (by 2023-2024 he likely won't be worth the salary, even in arbitration.

There will also probably be a DH in 2022, that would be a different story for both those guys (as well as Harper).

[mdougherty12]

There is also no guarantee that Realmuto’s defense will decline before his offense. Buster Posey still rates as a strong defensive catcher, but his bat has declined precipitously in his early 30s.

[andyb]

I might also throw out the possibility of Realmuto at other positions. He has played 1B because the demands of playing the position (i.e. for him to play it adequately at the major league level) are easy. But he was originally a middle infielder and clearly should have the quickness and arm for 3B. He also runs well enough that LF or RF would easily be things he could do. Obviously his health as a catcher could decline quickly, but he seems a fair bet to retain defensive utility through a 5-year deal. The issue is more whether he is worth $25 million a year at the end like anyone approaching their mid 30s.

[nycphils]

If we could make a five year deal I’d be comfortable that the first three years are likely to be fine so it is likely worth the risk.

[EDmuch]

The one thing no one seems to address is that we have no one for LF after McCutheon's contract expires. Unless of course you believe like AF that we will have so much talent thru out our lineup by then that we can afford a light hitting Haseley playing left field.

[andyb]

A good-hitting OF is usually on the market. Like Cutch and Brantley last year. Raul Ibanez a decade or so ago.

I am really not worried. Ideally Haseley or Moniak wins the CF job. Other internal options could always include Bohm there too (and Stott could be in the 3B mix by then if SS does not work out). Looking a little less likely on the Jhailyn Ortiz front unfortunately, but at least the position is relatively easy to fill externally.

[zambonir]

Randolph, obviously Or Nick Williams.

But yeah, there's always LFs on the market, or the trade market. Haseley can certainly be in the mix, we'll see how the bat progresses. Pretty low odds of him and Moniak both being starters for us in 2022 , we'll have either a CF or LF from the outside.

[Austinfan]

I would keep an eye on Stephen, who is actually ahead of Moniak as a hitter at the same age.
Breakout season at age 21 in Reading, posting a wRC+ of 140.
We'll see what he does at Lehigh next summer, but he should be in the conversation.

[Dirk41]

Does Moniak open at Lehigh next season? Understand that he is young, but don't think he is ready for the majors anytime soon and spending years at AAA also isn't a great look. Will be an interesting season for him