Discussion post Atlanta Series

[andyb]

Note-I split these off so that posters do not miss an interesting discussion believing it is part of a game thread for an awful game... pc, mod

Florimon vs Flaherty is just a non-issue. Flaherty is 31 years old with a career OPS of 647 coming off years where he was worse than that (610, 539). He is not as good a SS as Florimon is either even though he is decent at 2B.

With Kingery on the roster and Valentin in AAA these issues just don't matter. Flaherty just isn't that good even if announcers rave about his "grittiness".

As for Velasquez and Thompson, we kind of know that neither is that good. But VV had bad defense behind him which made his night worse than it should have been and frankly he has the type of stuff you give a dozen chances to. If he has several more bad starts I would not hesitate using an option and sending him to AAA but cutting bait on one of the few guys you have with decent stuff is the wrong answer.

Thompson's stuff has regressed since his prospect days and now looks like a middle reliever. He was in a bad situation yesterday (due partially to his rookie manager). No evidence yet that we have people in AAA better than he is. Hutchison IS probably better, so when the relievers on the DL get healthy Thompson probably goes down. Yesterday was just a game you forget about and move on though.

[zambonir]

Just wait 'til Flaherty isn't facing Phillies pitching.

Kapler's certainly not coming off well. He's not defensive, but he's really sticking to his platitudes - makes me miss Mackanin's sarcasm already. He actually tried to claim that having Florimon be a reliever this season was all part of the plan (which is not the same thing as, "we had him throw a few few bullpens this spring in case of a crazy emergency - which shouldn't have been the 8th inning of Game 3).

And I guess when it was 5-2 you're still trying to win the game but since it was also the third time around the order with Freeman and Markakis coming up Milner should have gotten the call to warm-up already. What worries me is, where are Kranitz and Thomson in all this? He (Kapler) seemed so confident yesterday that they wouldn't run out of arms (and obviously there was no roster move). I tend to be very anti second-guessing and think managerial moves are never as big a deal as people make them but it's easy call both that and the Milner incident total malpractice.

Bullpen blunder poses immediate test of Gabe Kapler's...

Meanwhile, yeah, it's early, but the bats aren't showing much besides Kingery (and Santana to some extent) and the defense wasn't good. I agree it will get better, and a period of adjustment was to be expected but they can't afford to be a soap opera. With the higher expectations and so much media scrutiny and so many people expecting Chip Kelly Part 2 it could get bad before they're in a position to say "we told you so."

[Squire]

I feel like I've hung in there on Velasquez as long as anybody but I'm not sure how much longer I can do that.

I didn't think it was possible for Klentak to go 0 for the Giles trade but it's looking that way.

[andyb]

Velasquez has had 40 starts with a 4.59 ERA as a Phillie. It is really not a huge sample and the ERA is probably better than what would have replaced him. It is not like Eflin, Thompson, Pivetta, and Leiter have been better than that.

He needs to be healthy and pitch. Use an option if you have to when some of our guys on the DL and Arrieta are with the team again. But he really has not been that bad. A bad Velasquez is replacement level with the potential to be better. The alternative is sometimes replacement level without the potential to be better.

[baseballoldie]

I think the Phillies can still win the trade once VV becomes a Giles like reliever/closer and Eshelman joins the big club rotation and becomes a 10-12 game winner per year guy and, most importantly, an innings eater due to his impeccable control.

[zambonir]

Feels wrong that there isn't baseball today. On the bright side, there isn't baseball today.

The question of how long the leash should be to stay in the rotation applies to all the 3-5 starters, I think. This season is still about finding out what they've got. I'm not more down on VV than anyone who might replace him, or even the other two unproven guys in this rotation. Unfortunately if his performance doesn't take him out, his health might. I guess the good news is that a bullpen move wouldn't be a demotion on this team.

I hope Eshelman is a keeper but we hoped Eflin and Thompson and Lively were too, based on their performance in the minors. Given Giles' ups and downs trading him was probably smart regardless and they're only losing the trade because they've got so much to lose, if they'd only gotten like one good prospect and one add-on for him we'd probably be a bit less bummed/surprised if that one guy didn't pan out.

[DurhamBull]

Kapler's certainly not coming off well. He's not defensive, but he's really sticking to his platitudes - makes me miss Mackanin's sarcasm already. He actually tried to claim that having Florimon be a reliever this season was all part of the plan (which is not the same thing as, "we had him throw a few few bullpens this spring in case of a crazy emergency - which shouldn't have been the 8th inning of Game 3).

It's easy to forget that, like many of the players on the field, Kapler is also learning a new position and he'll have some miscues. I don't have access to the Athletic article (and too lazy to Google for the quotes elsewhere) so I don't see exactly what he said, but yes, having a position player pitch is something that usually happens once per season and it's not good to have used up that mulligan with 159 games left to play. I don't care whether it's analytics or instinct or ouija board driving the reliever roulette, I don't think it's going to play out well over the long term. I hope Kapler changes course soon.

[zambonir]

I'm definitely not forgetting it, and I get that he has a long-term plan, which he should definitely not back away from the first time he screws up and the critics get loud. But you can't screw up this big this early when you need to have both your clubhouse and your fans buying in.

He says he expects to use position players again and it's all part of his master plan to keep the bullpen "healthy and strong." Which is a funny thing to say on the same night you sent a guy out to pitch without any warm-up. He also said, on Friday, that they had a game plan for the bullpen on Saturday. Maybe that plan really was to use Florimon if they were losing but what was the plan if they'd actually been in the game?

[el-pietro]

Its baseball so losing a game or two isn't that big of a concern and as DB mentioned Kapler is new too. Hes going to make mistakes and learn from them hopefully.
What is worrying is that this is the Atlanta freaking Braves. Whats going to happen when we play the Nationals? Or the Cubs or Dodgers?

[California_Dreamin]

You could make a strong case that this really all started when Kapler decided to take Nola out with a 5-0 lead and 1 out in the sixth inning, it has sort of spiraled out of control since then. My how the game has changed, and not for the better IMHO.

Spring training used to be to prepare you to go full bore once the season started and there was never a wading into the season attitude, that was why you had the spring. Not only that, players now train during the off season, heck I was a tiny little boy and had HOF running back, Hugh McElhaney, sell me groceries at McElhaney's Grocers, a store he not only owned but worked at during the off season.

All the arguments I have read have not swayed me one iota...Nola is the horse the Phils are planning to ride this season [along with Arrieta] and if you refuse to ride that horse with a 5 run cushion and still nearly four innings to go, the chances are great that every other horse is going to get awfully tired awfully quickly.

[andyb]

Kapler's problem with pitching usage is that optimal performance demands something like an 18-person pitching staff. Starters go 2 times through the order (that is 4-5 innings). Then relievers are better in 1-inning stints than 2-inning stints. And use your situational lefties at any time, even before the 5th inning.

The problem is that usage cannot be accommodated on a 25-man roster. The whole "flexibility" thing on defense is nice, but we all kind of know that when a player is out of position (Hoskins in LF, Kingery at SS) they are generally less good defensively than the player they replace.

So a 4-man bench DOES hurt both the defense and the offense (fewer pinch hitters available much less pinch runners). The 13-person pitching staff is potentially marginally better than a 12-person pitching staff if one can adhere to that optimal usage (noted above). But that pattern of usage hurts the relievers long term so the bigger pitching staff may not be potentially better.

I am an analytics person in real life. The Phillies and Kapler in particular are very arrogant about their analytics to the point where nobody can question them when they might be wrong. Like the Clinton campaign in 2016. Mistakes are being made. The Dodgers had much more quality depth than the Phillies have today (and more top starters) so the lessons Kapler learned there may not be correct. Hopefully Kapler has an open mind to see all of thus.

At the 3-game mark he is not necessarily passing that test though.

[allentown]

It seems the Phillies are misusing analytical data if they conclude that analytics requires them to remove their best pitcher in mid-inning when he is sailing along on 68 pitches with a lead and has yet to complete 6 IP. That isn't smart analytics; that is just plain stupid. A look at data would show how many times Nola has successfully pitched 6 and 7 innings and that 68 pitches in a non-stressful situation is a very light workload for him, even for first game of season. The Braves starter threw a lot more pitches and dealt with a lot more baserunners. It seems especially dumb to mess around with Nola, as he is a vital cog which the team needs to lock up long term. Costing him a quality start and a win, based upon rote application of an analytical 'rule' is not the sort of thing likely to engender appreciation and loyalty to his manager and team. Nola was disrespected a bit in his first start.

Also, I personally don't like such quick and frequent moves to the pen. If you play reliever roulette to this extreme an extent, you are almost certain to light upon the cold hand in just about every game.

If Kapler is going to follow the Dodgers philosophy, then he needs to follow the whole philosophy, which featured spending an absolute ton of money internationally. The Dodgers' ace also averaged 6.5 IP per start. There was no arbitrary twice through the batting order for Kershaw.

[California_Dreamin]

allentown...bingo! And one more thing about this whole "the third time around the lineup" theory. For years we read about how in the Philadelphia minors pitchers were allowed [think this was Jordan's belief] to try and get out of difficult situations so they would know how to pitch through difficulties. Now we see an entirely different philosophy, one that says, "don't worry, we will replace you at the first sign of trouble."

So we have gone from starters going nine, to a quality start being 6 innings and allowing 3 runs, to "you had better have a perfect game going if you ever hope to see the 6th inning.

I also find it so ironic that the team that for so long had almost utter disdain for analytics now is so married to it that you cannot eve question them about how they use it.

[BostonRoss]

I'm not ready to throw Kapler under bus after some mistakes in his first few games. And while I would have left Nola in, I know that Kapler would have taken heat if he had left Nola in and he gave up some runs.

[LegoDoom]

I don't follow advanced baseball stats as much as I'd like, but isn't there some correlation to 3rd time through the lineup stats and stats by pitch count? I would assume that the 3rd time through the lineup stats are worse because the pitcher is fatigued. However, is fatigue that much of an issue with a batter facing a pitcher the 3rd time if the pitcher is only at 68 pitches? Nola's opposing OPS is only .606 from pitches 51-75.

Sorry if it's been brought up before, but it seems relevant to what Kapler is doing.

[andyb]

I have seen studies on pitch count and 3rd time through the lineup separately. Not 3rd time through the lineup at various pitch counts.

Also, some pitchers have 3-4 good pitches. Some starters only 1 or 2. The more distinct pitches a pitcher has, the better they are equipped to get through a lineup 3 times. I am guessing teams have studied this even if it takes the outside world some time to catch up.

My point though is that short starts on a pitching staff cannot co-exist with lots of short, situational bullpen appearances. That is what has happened in the first 3 games. One needs longer bullpen appearances as a rule if you are lifting starters early.

[zambonir]

I think he'll learn, and fast. As much as Klentak may be on the same page, he's worked with enough managers, as has Thomson, and MacPhail, that they should be able to help Kapler understand that you can't have a one-size fits all approach.

I'm not even being critical when I say that Kapler choked, to use the term of art. He came in with big ideas and a specific game plan but then he failed to adjust to both roster changes and game situations that his plan did not foresee. Doesn't matter what kind of manager you are, you have to be able to do that. And the bullpen gaffe yesterday was the equivalent of Chris Webber calling time-out (albeit with minimal consequences) or a QB not knowing what down it is.

[LegoDoom]

My point though is that short starts on a pitching staff cannot co-exist with lots of short, situational bullpen appearances. That is what has happened in the first 3 games. One needs longer bullpen appearances as a rule if you are lifting starters early.

I don't disagree with that necessarily, but does that still hold true if some of those relievers are throwing a low amount of pitches? How much rest does a situational pitcher need? And don't starters have a longer BP session every 3rd day? Could they be used in certain situations in lieu of a BP session, especially if they are only throwing ~70 pitches a game?

I know that driveline baseball (which has been mentioned before with regards to Trevor Bauer and, more recently, Tim Lincecum) has advocated throwing more often and not less. And they are heavily backed in science and statistics.

I'd like to hear a little more about what Kapler is planning as I am not against something unconventional, but it certainly doesn't seem good so far.

[LegoDoom]

I'm not even being critical when I say that Kapler choked, to use the term of art. He came in with big ideas and a specific game plan but then he failed to adjust to both roster changes and game situations that his plan did not foresee. Doesn't matter what kind of manager you are, you have to be able to do that. And the bullpen gaffe yesterday was the equivalent of Chris Webber calling time-out (albeit with minimal consequences) or a QB not knowing what down it is.

This is my take, as well. You also have to understand that a decision, while statistically correct, could affect a game 1, 3 or 10 days down the line. Gaining a marginal advantage in today's game may be a disaster in a few days because you don't have the pitchers available.

[LoneStarPhan]

I for one rejoice for the day off today. Clearly, the Phillies need it after the disaster in Atlanta.

I was extremely happy to see the club embrace modern analysis into their operation, but I cannot support the handling of the pitching in the Atlanta series. It is clear that this is the road to disaster, and it sure didn't take long to get there. While every individual situation and be analyzed in isolation, the manager also has to be aware that the best move for facing a single batter in a given game situation might be to bring in a lefty to face a Freeman, how important is it to do in a specific situation and how will that impact the rest of the game or the next few days. Was facing the good LH batter with a 5 run lead and a runner on first a game critical situation? Even if Milner gets the outs without any runs, was this the time for such a move? Of course, since Milner failed and the Braves went on to score two runs that inning, the specific move failed, as it always will sometimes, and it set in motion more moves that continued to not work out well. The season is long and every situation cannot be managed like if might be the turning point of a post season game.

It also occurred to me while watching the Saturday game that moving players around to multiple positions just results in players not being as good defensively as they are when the play a position consistently, day in and day out. While I agree that versatile players make great bench players, that is only because as bench players, they should not be called upon to play most of those positions very often. I believe the team is better suited by having a relatively set starting lineup. I understand that they have two good players who are second basemen but I don't like seeing Kingery as a utility player. Young players such as Crawford need to be given a consistent role. If they want to see if Franco can come around, then he also needs to start consistently. Frankly, I don't know what the best answer to this is, but I think the constant shuffling of young players will end up hurting them.

There will always be second guessing of moves by the manager. That's just a part of baseball and is nothing new. Every move of even the HOF manager does not work as he had hoped, every time. The best analytics only give the manager probabilities based on past happenings. In the end, it has to be the results that justify the moves over the long run. We will see how this season plays out for the Phillies and for Kapler, but after one series, they have a long way to go.

I am hoping for better play and better results in New York.