Coronavirus (Sports-Related and General)

[Lawman]

What I've started to realize is a big factor in how people deal with this, more than politics or the culture of place (even if that's also clearly an issue when it comes to NYC vs. Texas), is proximity to death and illness.

That's true to an extent. But, also, is personal mindset. My mother-in-law lived with us. I was mildly symptomatic early on for a few days, and my wife as well. My MIL contracted the virus and, sadly and w/o too much suffering, passed away. So my family was definitely affected. But, both my wife and I also feel strongly that, at this point certainly and longer than that, its time to open up with restrictions. Masks should be worn. Social distancing measures in place. But, no reason WalMart can be open and a small, locally owned, clothing store can't.

[zambonir]

Sorry to hear about your MIL. Were you tested?

Anyway, what's the debate at this point? Everyone is opening up. We'll find out soon enough if it's a mistake. But I think it's pretty obvious why Wal-Mart was more essential than a small, locally owned clothing store, even if there's still a lot of politics and corporate power and income inequality tied up in all of it. People who don't yet feel safe going back to work - especially given so many other people's disregard for masks and distancing - are going to lose their jobs, though if you work for Wal-Mart you were already forced to make that choice on Day 1.

[Lawman]

Sorry to hear about your MIL. Were you tested?

No., No real reason to do so - 3 months ago I don't think I would have qualified for a test anyway w/ the criteria then in place. I stayed in my house for 2 weeks anyway. And, despite only having mild symptoms, my sense of smell is only now starting to come back 3 months later. My taste came back after ~week.

[philsphan67]

I blame the players too. Just read, wish I remembered where, how the players association really misses Michael Weiner. The players signed a contract, the game has changed (analytics, favoring the younger cheaper player and this did hurt the players cause) and all the players do (prior to this covid year) is complain about the contract they signed. The game needs to change too -- too many Ks, too much time b/w pitches, you can't have average baseball games that take over 3 hours (there are some exceptions). Watching old baseball games, replay can kill a good game. I watched game 7 of the '91 WS and there were 3 plays within an inning that probably get reviewed now. That needs to be streamlined.....
A massive compromise is needed from both sides and I honestly think they need some partnership on salaries to stop the constant bickering. They need to agree and actually not complain about the agreement and bring the game forward together.

[bkox]

WHO walks back statement on 'very rare' asymptomatic spread as infectious disease experts say it is 'not accurate'

WHO walks back statement on 'very rare' asymptomatic spread as infectious...

[andyb]

I guess we have been posting the MLB and labor negotiations here. Players propose 89 game season:

Sources: MLBPA proposes 89-game season

I think they are angling for 82. This would have them play till Oct. 11th while the owners want to stop on September 27th. I know people are nervous about the virus in the Fall, but there is an easy 10/4 compromise here and that should not increase the risk too much.

Players also going for 16-team playoffs. Can Nola and Wheeler steal a 3-game series for us?

Things are moving fast enough that I think we will see a compromise. Guessing the players will need a small cut, but something like 90% on an 82-game season seems fair with less contingent on the playoffs.

[Lawman]

They did not completely walk it back. They clarified that it’s based on 2-3 studies but not yet the adapted view of WHO.

[schillingfan]

Sorry for your loss.

[schillingfan]

They’ll meet in the middle. They’re just playing out negotiation strategy as I’m sure you know. In personal injury lawsuits that go to arbitration, with good intentions, high/low= middle. Same as when I attended state budget negations. Department had high figure of jobs, Finance Department had low number and my boss gave them the middle. Each side starts at extremes, knowing they’ll meet in the middle. If there is no season, owners will get no TV contract money.

[schillingfan]

They did not completely walk it back. They clarified that it’s based on 2-3 studies but not yet the adapted view of WHO.

I think also there was confusion between definition of asymptomatic versus presymptomatic.

[Lawman]

Each side starts at extremes, knowing they’ll meet in the middle.

I both agree with this thought process and hope you're right. But, who knows? We'll know soon enough.

[bkox]

COVID Is So Bad in Arizona They’re Running Out of Beds

[zambonir]

Remember when the whole MLB season was gonna be in Arizona?

[bkox]

Remember when heat was supposedly gonna kill the Coronavirus.... texas florida and az all seeing increases as we are like 2 weeks from the start of summer

[zambonir]

I don't think that was ever credible. Largely speculative (and/or nonsense from our President). The virus was flourishing in the Southern Hemisphere.

[andyb]

There is probably some inverse correlation between people spending much more time outdoors in warmer weather and the spread of the virus. It has always spread easily indoors. In warmer areas it probably spreads more slowly. Now, though, with many states opening up (and the warmer states opening their indoor venues more rapidly), more people are put in a situation where the virus could spread. Good news is the outdoor protests may not drive as much spread as feared. It will drive some though, and those people might be eating in these 50% capacity restaurants and that may not be good.

90 degree sun may kill the virus more quickly, but 72 degrees and air conditioning will not.

[California_Dreamin]

I have stayed silent [pretty much] on this entire coronavirus thread because I understood I would likely be viewed as the fool on the hill based on the almost universal posts which A] seemed to be used to prove one singular point of view and B] would by sometimes inference and sometimes pointedly show that the President was somehow to blame for this virus and that he was wrong to encourage the country to get back to work.

However, I do believe there are readers of this site who do not post and likely have been lead to near hysteria if/when they read this thread. I think that they should also hear the other side of the argument, the one that might indicate that despite whats happening in a few states [Arizona, North Carolina and California the most prevalent] the country and the world might not be witness to a collective "sky is falling" scenario afterall.

As someone who lost his job due to the pandemic and might have his future earnings affected greatly, I was more than a bit interested in just how this pandemic was progressing and have been a regular visitor to the John Hopkins Worldometer daily numbers update on tests, cases, and deaths world wide. Believe me, next to phillyphans during baseball season there is no site I visit more than this one...and for obvious reasons, both personally, professionally and historically.

In the effort to present the entire picture, here are the numbers. For nearly two months, the world wide active cases far outnumbered the recovery numbers, very alarming indeed. However, beginning two weeks ago, the recovery numbers finally began to outdistance the active cases and as of today the numbers are 3,888,338 million recovered and 3,359,000 active cases, a gain of over 500,000 cases to the positive. This is very good news and by all accounts the recovery rate will continue to outdistance the active case numbers based on current trends. Also, 98% of all cases world wide are mild, whereas only 2% are considered serious or critical. I wish the Phillies chances of winning the pennant were half that good.

In the USA, recovery is now at 88%, which may sound somewhat alarming except for the fact that at the beginning of the pandemic it was 76% and has been steadily increasing incrementally. It has increased by about 1% weekly. No less a pandemic expert than Scott Gottlieb [no Trump supporter here] today said that "nationally the total covid positivity rate and new case rate is flat even as states experience outbreaks. Testing continues to expand."

Look, I want this thing to end as much as anyone else, it is a continuing dark cloud over a country that I love very much. I am not foolish enough to insure things get better guaranteed. But just like when we evaluate a player and try and decide if he is likely to be a positive or negative force with the Phils I believe its important to present all sides of the coronavirus story and not just the headlines [today its Arizona, tomorrow it might be California] that invoke fear, consternation and a political point of view that need not apply to this subject.

[bkeich]

There is no doubt that this entire thing is "not as bad as we feared possible" on April 1. That said, some of that is from mitigation efforts both in the US and world wide, the world has greatly changed in just a few months. People now regularly wear masks inside, people are sensitive to coughing and social distancing is a "thing". It has not been universally done, but it has certainly slowed the spread.

The disease does not have the 10%+ fatality rate that was feared. It is much lower and seems to be concentrated on people with existing issues, even if that issue is just age.

There will be an increase as things "open up". That can't really be avoided easily, we are going to see a jump as people have been returning to something closer to a normal life. That said, Restaurants, Theaters, etc. are still no where near being open where most of the population is in my state (PA). I dont think it is at all unreasonable to expect that there are going to be infection rate jumps, there are, but the question is really "is this just the equivalent of a horrible flu season" or "is this something that can possibly reach disabling effects that cause worldwide problems". We have erred VERY HEAVILY to avoid the 2nd, was that wise? Who knows, we have done a great deal of harm to our economies, many, many people have had their financial lives destroyed and even more have taken hits that are hard to accept.

When we start seeing rates increasing in some states that are opening (and frankly many of them were states that were no that hard hit before) what do we do? Another "shutdown" may destroy our economy for years and years, or do we just accept that there are going to be 2 million more cases and 200K deaths additional this year? Which is the lesser evil? This is a question of balance.

I am personally almost completely isolated due to be very, very high risk (despite being a few years younger than CD and many others on this board). Luckily I have a job I can do from home for a few months, but my fiance could bring something home.

[California_Dreamin]

bkeich....thank you for your reasoned and sensible response to my post. And its important to know that I was never an advocate of "hey, lets get back to 50,000 fans at stadiums" now and have always understood that there was much to learn about this new virus. But we have learned much since mid March and I simply think its time to stop scaring the less informed with stories of horror, Lord knows we can always find them.

Just like I can tell stories of success like South Dakota, Alaska, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas and Florida. Balance seems to be the way forward as we slowly get back to work, play and hopefully antibody treatments and vaccines soon.

[schillingfan]

I think that the increase in some states is because real community spread had not arrived there. The northeast and upper Midwest got hit hard and early as people returned from Europe through New York and Chicago. Pennsylvania is near New York and New Jersey and lots of contact back and forth. We shut down, and because we had early big numbers we were not Covid19 deniers. I see masks everywhere here when I do go out. Luzerne County was having forty some new cases a day at the height. Even as we have gradually opened up, it’s believed we’ll go green next Friday, our daily cases seem to be averaging about five, with some reporting issues zero one day, twelve the next. People here believe and follow the rules. That’s important.

I think people in the rising states need to take what the scientists say seriously. Most dangerous exposure is close contact over long periods indoors. That’s why meat packing factories ere Petri dishes. Masks by all parties double the length of time for exposure without being affected. So time, distance, outdoors and masks are factors to consider. Trump and others not wearing masks is a problem, sorry CD, it sends the wrong message. Pretending it’s not a problem will not make Covid19 Go away, it will make it worse and hurt our economy more.