You think?
If so, and if China moves to consolidate regional economic power in East Asia (as the Japanese did in the 1930s), do you foresee a US economic embargo against China? A situation devolving to the point that China concludes they need to take military action against both other regional powers and against the US?
I donāt see it, frankly. An American economic embargo/war against China would decimate the US economy. This isnāt 1937. We have massive economic entanglements with China, as you know. If Xi is smart, and China cultivates other markets effectively prior to taking any move that would likely provoke a major US response...well, then (IMO) China would likely prevail if the US went to economic war...and I wouldnāt count on winning a shooting war, either. The last time the US confronted Chinese regulars in the field, it didnāt go particularly well. Moreover, given the Chinese nuclear deterrent, we couldnāt simply escalate to overwhelm them (even assuming we have the resources - or the political will - to do so. Lastly, itās extremely unlikely that the Chinese would repeat Japan's Pearl Harbor mistake. Without that provocation, FDR would have had great difficulty selling the American people on the idea of total war in the Pacific; he was making little headway selling the "evil"of the Manchurian campaign.
I agree that China is emerging as the pre-eminent Asian power, economically and militarily; I do not see them provoking a Western military or economic response that will slap them down. On the contrary, I expect them to continue to grow, into the worldās biggest power, and I donāt think thereās much that Washington can do about that. London could not prevent the decline of empire when the tide of world development left them behind; neither will the US prevent the decline of our economic hegemony. Life goes on, but empires have life cycles.
