Coronavirus (Sports-Related and General)

[julio]

France has related a lot of its cases to a megachurch meeting. Ditto for S. korea. Guess where mobs of people are congregating thoughout the American South and the bible belt as far north, at least, as a megachurch outside of Cincinnatti. Texas has gone to state-wide stay-home, but has exempted churches.

Hmmm. Maybe there's something to the argument that Christians are persecuted in these United States... just didn't expect the persecutors to be right-wing state-level Christian politicians.

The idea put forward by some of these pastors - that God will protect his flock from infection in church gatherings - smacks of the beliefs of snake-handlers that God will protect them, as well.

Snake-handlers have a relatively high mortality rate...

[allentown]

Here's a column linking refusal of many megachurch pastors to follow prudent social distancing to recent (since 9/11). To me, it sounds like toxic masculinity as theology and an argument for greater involvement of women in pastoral roles and church leadership, but...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/02/conservative-evangelicals-coronavirus-tough-guys/

[Jeff05]

Thanks, for the link, Philsmania.

[rpmcmurphy]

If they really want to practice a muscular Christianity, they should shelter in place inside their churches for the duration, not contaminate the community, or jam up the hospitals.

[julio]

Hey, many of the followers/parishioners of these nutcase preachers appear to believe that their pastors are basically demigods. If they listen to the pastors, and sicken and die as a result...well, they'll get to find out PDQ whether the half-baked theology these guys promote really leads them to eternal life in heaven.

It's just unfortunate that these peabrains are out in the community where they can infect others who aren't loony.

[Lucky_Beagle]

I do not attend a megachurch, so my church's take (and almost all that I know of in our area) was to close for multiple reasons. Of course the danger of risk for members and the community was a major reason. There is also the witness angle church's are showing by following the advise/recommendations of leaders. Many Churches are offering service online with varying degrees of a service. My church thus far has mostly been our pastor presenting a message. This week it is going to expand to some music (he often plays a guitar) and communion at home BYOB (bring your own bread!) style.

[el-pietro]

In Ireland mass is being broadcast online/on tv. I don't know anyone who would go to mass so I'm not sure what the sentiment is among those who would otherwise attend services. Generally though everyone is on board with the lockdown with obvious concern for businesses/jobs - many believe we haven't gone far enough/aren't testing enough, though we have seen some benefit in our growth rate since closing schools and bars almost 3 weeks ago and shutting down all non essential travel/businesses last week.

Surely these megachurches can set up online services? I'm sure the reason they want to keep people attending is financially driven but can this not be mitigated without online payments? Are they not concerned that their ... fans?... will get sick and die, and they lose them in the longterm?

[LoneStarPhan]

Our county, like most in the DFW metroplex have had mandatory closings for the last couple weeks, but statewide, the governor just issued the request to stay home. Our church is totally closed. A Meals-on-Wheels program that normally distributes meals to drivers for delivery has had to relocate to another (municipally owned) building. Grocery and drug stores remain open, but most others have closed. Schools remain closed. Many restaurants are doing take out or delivery.

Yet too many people are out and about. Local news shows crowds on the trails, in the parks, etc. Fort Worth dismantled basketball goals this week because of the crowds at courts in parks last weekend. People just don't seem to get it.

The Fort Worth paper today had an article about Shin-Soo Choo going out Tuesday to get groceries and seeing

People were out and about. Social distancing wasn’t being observed, which likely meant hands weren’t being washed and the risk that coronavirus was being passed from friend to friend and neighbor to neighbor was heightened.

Read more here: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/mlb/texas-rangers/article241672761.html#storylink=cpy

A second article notes that Choo is giving $1000 to each minor leaguer (not on 40 man roster) with the exception of a handful of veteran players with past ML experience. It is noted that Adam Wainwright is giving $250,000 to go to minor leaguers in the Cardinals' system.

https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/mlb/texas-rangers/article241689296.html

I certainly don't want to tell anyone how to use their money, but I hope more big leaguers in other organizations and the organizations themselves step up to help these folks who make peanuts when they are getting paid. Yes, teams and players do give time and money to many good causes, but it is time to get a living wage for every professional player regardless of the level they are assigned to play.

[LoneStarPhan]

I mentioned above that our church was closed. Sunday will be the third without services being held. We did not attend the two Sundays prior to closing because of concern over the COVID-19 danger. We have stayed home in previous years when flu outbreaks were running through our area. Our church has for the past several years, Livestreamed the services, so we can always "attend" in that way. Since closing the buildings, the service has been modified but has included some music and messages delivered by various staff members from different settings at the church. They are doing a good job under unusual circumstances.

[Lawman]

Does anyone know what models the White House is using to get their numbers?

[xogfog]

Imagine if FDR had told Churchhill, we're just a back up....

[Purduke]

Does anyone know what models the White House is using to get their numbers?

Birx has mentioned that they have five different orgs doing modelling for them, but has commented a few times that the "IHME Chris Murray" model tracks closely to her assessment. It is what she showed Monday when they did the "data" presentation.

Models Of Epidemic Predict Huge U.S. Death Toll; Scientists Hope For Better...

Results from that model, which also incorporates bed\ICU and ventilator forecasts is below. It is updated daily.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

[Lawman]

The IHME model has been really, really wrong. I'll say that much. For NY, it's off by 320%. If the IHME model is being used to drive policy here, then they need to revise policy.

A week ago, the IHME model showed that NY will need 10,839 ICU beds by today. The number for yesterday is 3,396.

[andyb]

Unfortunately these models are only as good as their inputs. If states test at a varying rate, it is really difficult to project based upon the relatively small number of deaths so far. The models also vary greatly in time periods. Are we talking deaths in the next 3 months, or 18 months until we have a vaccine and can really stop this?

At least the WH is being realistic and trying to explain these charts and the variances. The scientists and doctors at least. The political people will cherry pick numbers that fit their narrative and the press will misuse numbers all the time. It really seems that 100,000 deaths would be a pretty good outcome for the year if that is all we had. I just fear our social distancing efforts will vary by state and demographic and these models cannot predict that very well.

[Lawman]

IHME showed last Thursday that NY will need 10,839 ICU’s by yesterday. In actuality, tt was 3,732. IHME does not seem to be changing the data that create those models.

By Wednesday 4/1, their model showed NY will need 11,621 beds on April 9th. Their prediction was moved back a week just like that. For NY to need 11,621 ICU beds by April 9th, the ICU bed use in NY needs to jump by 7,890 from today through April 8th. That’s an average increase of 1,315 ICU's per day the next 6 days when the last 5 day average is 338 a day with a narrow range of 315 to 374 per day.

So either IHME needs to revise their data and update their models accordingly, or government agencies using the IHME model to craft policy need to use other models.

[Philsmania]

Our county, like most in the DFW metroplex have had mandatory closings for the last couple weeks, but statewide, the governor just issued the request to stay home. Our church is totally closed. A Meals-on-Wheels program that normally distributes meals to drivers for delivery has had to relocate to another (municipally owned) building. Grocery and drug stores remain open, but most others have closed. Schools remain closed. Many restaurants are doing take out or delivery.

Yet too many people are out and about. Local news shows crowds on the trails, in the parks, etc. Fort Worth dismantled basketball goals this week because of the crowds at courts in parks last weekend. People just don't seem to get it.

The Fort Worth paper today had an article about Shin-Soo Choo going out Tuesday to get groceries and seeing

People were out and about. Social distancing wasn’t being observed, which likely meant hands weren’t being washed and the risk that coronavirus was being passed from friend to friend and neighbor to neighbor was heightened.

Read more here: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/mlb/texas-rangers/article241672761.html#storylink=cpy

Interestingly, this piece is in The Atlantic today...

The Social-Distancing Culture War Has Begun

[rpmcmurphy]

So either IHME needs to revise their data and update their models accordingly, or government agencies using the IHME model to craft policy need to use other models.

Actually, IHME continuously updates their model (next published update is tomorrow), and Dr. Birx said that IHME was only one of several that were being used. I’m not sure what is up with the projected ICU bed numbers because the total case and fatality numbers have been pretty accurate so far.

[bkox]

This quote from NFL's chief medical officer, Dr. Allen Sills, is pretty telling of the future for all pro sports (via NFL) pic.twitter.com/GDUSpvMXMH

— Mark J. Burns ( @markjburns88 ) April 3, 2020

[tom81]

Now we are getting serious.

Corona beer stops production

[Philsmania]

Now we are getting serious.

Corona beer stops production

I would not be surprised if the Corona brand is unceremoniously retired by the massive brewing conglomerate which owns it. Instead, they'll ratchet up production of one if the other Mexican brands.