Coronavirus (Sports-Related and General)

[mdougherty12]

Phormer Phil Erik Kratz gets mentioned in this article on MLB veterans who may have played their last game, if the 2020 season is lost:

https://sports.yahoo.com/one-more-season-mlb-veterans-may-have-played-final-innings-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty-023254222.html

[xogfog]

In Tennis, the French Open has been delayed to September and Wimbledon has been canceled

In Golf, The Open has been canceled, the Masters and the PGA Championship have been postponed with no future dates announced at this time.

[Lawman]

First time unemployment claims data released today was 6.6 million; up from the 3.3 million released March 26 which was up from 285,000 a week earlier and up from a 215,000 four week average.

The US had 156 million employed people a mere few weeks ago. 10 million of those were smoked out in 2 weeks! More layoffs are coming quick and many did not file yet.

I don't know what the answer is, hopefully people a lot smarter then me are making decisions, but this is an economic disaster. "They" are going to have to open up the economy somehow. And no, I have no idea how you do it safely given what we don't have - a vaccine, a proven, effective course of treatment, and a reduction of new cases/hospitalization rates, and more hospital space.

[el-pietro]

From the outside looking in it looks like the US still hasn't taken strong enough action to slow the spread. The conomy is hurting and will continue to do for a long time, and the longer they wait to take serious action the longer term the negative effects will be felt on the economy.

[allentown]

And the more people who will die.

[Lawman]

I get it. But, if you don't find a way to begin opening up the economy, you're looking at 20 million unemployed over the next two months. You can't stimulus package that away. You're going to be looking at foreclosures, bankruptcies, and increased suicide rates.

I think you've got to mass produce tests, mass produce masks and gloves, increase hospital, ICU, and ventilator capacity and tell people that masks are mandatory to be worn in public and go back to work. We'll test people weekly and quarantine as appropriate.

[julio]

From the outside looking in it looks like the US still hasn't taken strong enough action to slow the spread.

Failure of leadership at the national level. We have an administration that is more concerned with appearances - with "looking good" - than with substance.

A "real" US President, in this kind of situation, would make decisions and implement policy based on expert advice as to what is likely to yield the best outcomes - and would put aside concerns about whether those decision were "popular," or made him more likely to be re-elected. Real leaders are willing to sacrifice themselves for the common good.

Donald Trump is a selfish, narcissistic jerk. There is no possibility that he would make difficult decisions that he knew would imperil his "ratings." He's all about ego and image, and is incapable of even comprehending, much less caring about the negative effects of his self-serving choices.

So people will die needlessly. Thousands and thousands of people.

[julio]

I get it. But, if you don't find a way to begin opening up the economy, you're looking at 20 million unemployed over the next two months. You can't stimulus package that away. You're going to be looking at foreclosures, bankruptcies, and increased suicide rates.

I think you've got to mass produce tests, mass produce masks and gloves, increase hospital, ICU, and ventilator capacity and tell people that masks are mandatory to be worn in public and go back to work. We'll test people weekly and quarantine as appropriate.

The challenging thing, to me, is that it's not really about getting people "back to work," at least not in any way that protects them from this virus. Our economy isn't driven by people "going to work" - it's driven by people consuming - purchasing goods and services they don't really need, seeking entertainment in public venues (restaurants, bars, sports, concerts, etc.) - even engaging attorneys to pursue gratuitous civil lawsuits to get "justice" (defined as "a large cash settlement," split with said attorneys) - none of which services are essential.

Even if we get people "back to work," unless we assure people that their lives will not be at risk if they go back to their materialistic, consumptive ways, the economy will not come back. All the service workers in the hospitality/restaurant/tourism industries won't get their jobs back unless and until the consumers are willing to gather in groups to...well, to put it bluntly, to party.

What's really happened here? We're not eating out; we're cooking and eating at home. We're not rushing around to events and venues that amuse us, but really don't matter - whether that's going to the movies, to concerts, to bars; whether it's taking kids to ballet lessons or gymnastics, or any other structured activity that we've substituted for plain old "play." We're not shopping for clothes we don't really need. Etc., etc., etc. But our economy is built upon this kind of unnecessary consumption, isn't it?

The current economic contraction isn't about a fall in production of goods - it's about people staying home and not consuming completely discretionary services.... without which our economy falters.

So to get back to where we were, you either demonstrate to people that it's safe to congregate, or you mislead them to believe that they'll be safe (the "Trumpist" approach), or you convince them that the economy is more important than their personal safety.

And you have to hope that we get back to "normal" before people realize that, just maybe, they're not so bad off being less consumptive, less wasteful, less extravagant, and they decide they don't want to go "back to normal." You have to hope that they don't decide the way to prepare for the next economic disruption is to actually save, so that if their income is interrupted, they have, say, a year's income equivalent in the bank. Because if they do that, their consumption patterns will change - God forbid.

[Jeff05]

Julio, I've seen some speculation about the effect of COVID-19 on long-standing social and political structures in the press and blogosphere. Already, we're seeing authoritarian regimes, such as that in Hungary in central Europe, taking the opportunity to tighten their stranglehold. On the other hand, some writers are hopeful that in the West it will be a transformative experience that causes people to reassess their values and place in the world.

Will coronavirus change how we live?

How will coronavirus change the world?

[el-pietro]

I think you're looking at that either way, and the longer you wait to take action the worse it will be. China is already reopening their economy, it took about 2-3 months but they got through it. The US is doing things piecemeal and because of the delayed approach the effects of the virus on health and the economy are much worse as a result. If the US had acted quickly you might be starting to see this begin to slow down already, or at least in the next 1-2 weeks, instead its rocketing out of control. I think its easy to look at the US population and say total deaths to population or total infected ot population isn't that bad compared to other countries but there is no real relationship between confirmed infection and population, at least not in the early stages. eventually population matters as smaller countries reach saturation point but in the early stages the virus can only infect so many people, and total population is irrelevant.

[el-pietro]

I used to think its was bad that you had a criminal for a president. Now I realise how much worse it is that you have an incompetent narcissistic buffoon for a president. He has no empathy or concern for anyone but his own appearance. Everyday I think maybe today is the day he starts to take this seriously but then I see him talk about his tv ratings, or how well he understands the virus or South Korea or how he doesn't talk to Governors he doesn't like, or read how he is denying equipment to states that vote democrat or some other bullshit and I worry. I worry because I work for a US company and the longer this goes on the more likely it is to effect my job. I worry for my colleagues in Seattle, and my friends in Philadelphia and just for people in general.
He is going to eventually be responsible for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of deaths and he doesn't care.

[julio]

He [Trump] is going to eventually be responsible for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of deaths and he doesn't care.

Yeah. And, astoundingly, neither do his supporters and apologists...regardless of what they may say. If you make excuses for Trump at this point, you are complicit. Period.

No tax breaks are worth this. No conservative judges are worth this.

[Philsmania]

Thanks for sharing, Jeff. I will probably have to read these articles again to fully digest them. But yes, I think this crisis will be a crossroads moment in human history. The world "order" that was established after WW2 but which had become highly frayed in recent years is likely finished. What comes next is anyone's guess. Will the future be more dystopian--essentially oligarchical tyranny which was the humanity's default mode of governance before the Enlightenment--or a new, more collaborative, Earth-friendly order come about?

An interesting book I read a few years ago was a book called "End of Greatness: Why America Can't Have (and Doesn't Want) Another Great President" by David Aaronn Miller (see below). He argues that the US has only had three truly great Presidents--Washington, Lincoln and FDR--all if whom served at times when the American republic faced existential crises. If we don't face another existential crisis, we won't need another great president. However, I think we are facing one now. Another four years of Trump will only foster a dramatic decline if democratic institutions. While I like Joe Biden and consider him to be a good, honorable and capable public servant, it's hard to foresee him having the capacity for greatness. Now, we're hearing a lot of Democrats pining for a do-over, hoping for a contested convention from which Andrew Cuomo emerges as the party's nominee.

The End of Greatness: Why America Can't Have (and Doesn't Want) Another Great President: Miller, Aaron David: Amazon.com: Books

[rpmcmurphy]

The model that the coronavirus task force has been citing, the one that Dr. Birx has said points to 100,000 to 200,000 deaths “if we do things perfectly” is actually perhaps an overly optimistic one because it is based on an assumption that the entire nation is doing New Zealand level 4 social distancing:

COVID_Alert-levels_v2.pdf

We are still not doing that as a nation. As a result, the US death estimate (updated daily) for the first wave of the pandemic (not the final count) has increased from 81,000 on 3/26 to over 93,000 as of yesterday.

A strong national recommendation would give the red state governors cover as to implementing their own shutdowns, but Trump is loathe to do that because he wants to blame the governors for the worsening catastrophe.

[julio]

However, I think we are facing one now. Another four years of Trump will only foster a dramatic decline if democratic institutions. While I like Joe Biden and consider him to be a good, honorable and capable public servant, it's hard to foresee him having the capacity for greatness. Now, we're hearing a lot of Democrats pining for a do-over, hoping for a contested convention from which Andrew Cuomo emerges as the party's nominee.

I have to point out that one of the early 2020 Democratic hopefuls, Governor Jay Inslee of Washington, has been doing a really outstanding job dealing with the coronavirus problem. Washington has gone from one of the initial hotspots to a state that will in all likelihood end up with one of the lower rates of infection and death. Why? Because the governor understood what had to be done, and had the guts to just do it. All of which is entirely consistent with Inslee's years of service as Washington's governor. Not at all surprising that he moved quickly, decisively, in the right ways. He's intelligent, competent, and courageous.

Which, of course, resulted in his garnering something like 2% support among early Democratic candidates. Go figure.

Yeah, I was an early Inslee supporter - contributions and all. Why? Because I value competence and track record more than image, glitz, and name recognition - and I consider it my duty to be informed before I vote. I'm not a typical American, in any of these respects.

Cuomo's doing pretty good job - but on all the other major issues that we'll have to deal with after the coronavirus passes - on our health care system, on the climate crisis, etc. - Cuomo is "moderate," which means he's pretty much status quo. Inslee is an example of a governor who understands that we must change, and also understands how to change in practical ways. So of course, he will never be considered "presidential" by most Americans. The road not taken.

[schillingfan]

I gave money to Inslee, too. I liked his vision on climate change. Plus, like me, he’s from the Pacific Northwest, and we tend to have a natural infinity for preserving the environment, because it’s so amazing. I’m not scared for the economy, though admittedly I’m less likely to experience much hardship t. But I also don’t want it to return to normal. Normal was greedy excess consumption, wealth inequality and reckless disregard for the harm we were causing to our planet. I’m hopeful this economic pain does what we were involuntarily unable to do to reduce carbon emissions. Some businesses will learn many employees can work from home, and this can reduce expenses of large buildings, electric consumption and commutes to work.

[el-pietro]

I agree with you, the world we live in is a selfish world. But I'm in my mid 30s and graduated out of college right into the start of the last global recession and was just getting things together financially in the last couple of years and so I am worried for what change will look like. That is a selfish worry and I will admit to that.

I have hope that we can come through this into more of a collectivist world where people care about others and don't make decisions based on what will benefit them the most but I have my doubts.
What is more likely is that people realise that the things that benefit them are not the same things that benefit billionaires and make more realistic and sensible decisions and we get a better world that way.

[allentown]

France has related a lot of its cases to a megachurch meeting. Ditto for S. korea. Guess where mobs of people are congregating thoughout the American South and the bible belt as far north, at least, as a megachurch outside of Cincinnatti. Texas has gone to state-wide stay-home, but has exempted churches. The bill for these gaps in social distancing are going to come due over the next month. I saw an online newspaper report Tuesday that 25 U of Texas students who attended Spring Break in FL and, obviously, didn't social distance, have tested positive.

The economy's best shot was if the federal government took this seriously from the start and pushed for testing, including buying tests from abroad and really leaning on CDC, so that early cases could be identified, contacts tracked, and contacts isolated.

Our economy's second best shot was for the whole nation to take social distancing seriously.

Unfortunately, the economic crisis is going to be drawn out by idiots who are too selfish and/or stubborn to isolate.

[Purduke]

The bill for these gaps in social distancing are going to come due over the next month. I saw an online newspaper report Tuesday that 25 U of Texas students who attended Spring Break in FL and, obviously, didn't social distance, have tested positive.

Believe the trip was to Mexico (Cabo San Lucas). Apparently a group of 70 students; now up to 44 positive. Small point, I know.

[andyb]

That makes one doubt the low number of cases reported in Mexico to date (1,378). It can't be close to true and the country may not be able to handle what is to come, especially if cases are concentrated in resort areas which probably do not have deep hospital systems (like our outbreaks in places like Idaho ski resorts).