Coronavirus (general - personal, gov't response, etc. - not sports-specific)

schillingfan 2020-07-02 02:13:24 UTC #62

As was said they were a lagging indicator. Last week was the Memorial Day opening up effects.

California_Dreamin 2020-07-02 02:45:22 UTC #63

Covid Tracking Project, the official tracking project of the CDC, which updates fatalities daily at 7 pm Eastern time, reported todays total was 587, smallest Wednesday total since Wednesday, March31. This followed 575 yesterday, which was the smallest Tuesday total since Tuesday, March 30. Less than 2 months ago, it was a terrible Wednesday with 2,692 fatalities. Down over 2,000 in less that two months.

A month ago we considered it progress if the daily total was less than 1300, today we rarely get to 600. Every fatality is a tragedy but my view has not changed...the virus is weakening. Case numbers are up but before we blame Texas and Florida for opening too soon, it is equally important to then explain California. We have been locked down tighter than newlyweds on their honeymoon yet the case numbers here are just as high.

andyb 2020-07-02 12:25:52 UTC #64

Except this just is not true. We have had 600+ deaths every Tuesday-Friday since March I think. Saturday-Monday totals are artificially low because of lack of reporting. The CDC site also has a reporting lag. The Worldometers site had 676 deaths yesterday.

It is not clear that deaths are dropping any more as there has been a significant increase the last week in the Sun Belt states where the number of cases has increased. We are likely to go back to seeing 1,000 deaths a day unfortunately.

Not sure why you continue to post cherry-picked data that really does not give an honest picture of what is going on. Yes the death rate in the country has dropped as the Northeastern states that were hit hard got it under control. But everywhere else it has been fairly flat and is now increasing. We don't know the virus is weakening. We do know it is very contagious and we really don't know what will happen with all these new cases 3 weeks from now.

States DID open too quickly. But people (including California) also started to give up. There is no single cause to that. Some of it is understandable. But some of it is also bad leadership from the top coupled with misinformation spread by people that want to open up the country without safety precautions.

allentown 2020-07-02 13:53:56 UTC #65

I'm not certain that it was too early for most businesses, but certain businesses and activities are particularly problematic. Number one on the problem list is bars. Large indoor gatherings in general have been hot spot sources, whether parties, funerals, church services, or funerals. I guess the outdoor mobs at beaches and demonstrations remain an open question, although I suspect that they can produce new hot spots if masking isn't followed. I say suspect, because most of the people at the beaches seem to move to crowded indoor dining/parties, it not direct interpersonal contact with strangers through hook-ups. People who drive to the beach and stay with their quarantine unit, with some effort not to get to close to others may not be a problem.

CD -- in counting deaths, you need to watch for increases coming from the hot spot areas, where hospitalizations have been rising for over a week or two, not national numbers. This thing takes off exponentially in hot spots, so you need to be cognizant of the hot spot spikes and not lose them in the naturonal count during the early days of the exponential rise. Andy's objection is also valid.

California_Dreamin 2020-07-02 15:57:40 UTC #66

andyb..with all due respect, this is the second time you indicated that I have cherry picked my numbers and that is simply false and I resent it. I even sited where the numbers come from [Covid Tracking Project] and even indicated how they get their information. They are the site that the government recognizes because they are up to date and track for 24 hour periods and begin and end at the same time every day [between 6-7 pm Eastern time.] They are no looney tune site that plays with numbers, they are accurate and even list numbers by state.

If you have a problem with their numbers, then let them know but please stop suggesting I cherry pick the numbers, I don't. And the numbers are going down. Yes, the southern states are getting hit right now, so they need to deal with it in responsible ways, but not at that expense of 90% of the rest of America. We have a country to save and right now it pains me that our country is very much lacking in courage. Thank God, George Washington had courage, Lord knows his cabinet was ready to surrender several times. Thank God, Davy Crocket, Jim Bowie and William Travis had courage, Texas would likely never have become part of the Union without it. Thank God, Lewis and Clark had courage, there was an awful lot of the West that was still unexplored when they ventured this way and the reality is they had no idea what they would face every day.

At the greatest moments of despair in 1940 when it was basically Winston Churchill that was defending freedom by a thread and most of Europe had thought Hitler was invincible Church hill coined a phrase I still believe in and try to follow, "when you are going through ■■■■, keep going." I think we all could take a lesson from that. Just what are we going to wait for, a vaccine? One that may never come. Californians today are furious with Governor Newsom because when we need a leader the most he cowers. I get the masks, fine. I respect the social distancing, swell. I wash my hands so much now that if I put seeds between my fingers I could grow fruits and vegetables.

But this constant, "the sky is falling, oh no" hysteria is not something I am going to live by, will not do it. Someone wrote yesterday about doom and then indicated that now that one person had stopped posting [I bet apples to oranges it was me] that all the doom talk had ceased because said person didn't need to be scolded about his optimism.

andyb, the numbers I gave were accurate, if you disagree you certainly can take it up with the project. You believe we will soon have 1000 deaths a day and I am not suggesting you are wrong, I keep saying, "we'll see." But at what point do we all say that life has to go on, we can't stay in closets for the rest of our lives and pray it will suddenly disappear like the snowfall after a bright sunny day. The Hong Kong Flu hit when many of us were around and took over 100,000 lives [which would be 150,000 today with our increased population and I don't recall Americans even flinching. Schools closed? Please. Don't go to work? Are you out of your mind? Basically stop living? Not on my watch.

Look, I welcome reasoned and rational responses to my posts and have gone out of my way to thank those people [allentown just gave one] but I resent basically being called a liar, and cherry pickers at their core and non truth tellers. The numbers I quote are the numbers I am given. By a site that sure seems to be standing the test of time, its been around since the virus started.

allentown 2020-07-02 16:19:27 UTC #67

Americans are not lacking in courage. If people took simple precautions: distancing, masking, hand washing -- a lot of the shutdowns could have been avoided. These steps could have prevented the flare ups we are now seeing. It's not just the South, we are seeing case counts climb here in PA and in NJ. The reopening plan would, IMHO, have worked if people had followed the precautions the governors cited on the reopening approvals. Too many people didn't follow them. That's why we are where we are. That's why many governors are having to back off on some of the economic re-openings. Not a lack of courage, but rather a lack of common sense and non-masking be turned into a form of political signaling. Given the circumstances, shutdowns were needed, but they really didn't have to happen as widely and for as long a time, if people had been more cooperative on basic safety precautions.

It is cowardly to want to avoid the Covid-19 virus. 125,000 dead Americans is a justifiable reason for concern, especially for anybody over 60 or with health problems. I guess, really, anyone over 50 should be reasonably concerned.

andyb 2020-07-02 17:01:37 UTC #68

The CDC numbers have a reporting delay so it takes them a few days to catch up. And your numbers are wrong and misleading. You have posted many times about the low case numbers on the weekends where a 7-day rolling average would not show the drop. You have also conflated an acknowledged national trend of deaths dropping after the initial wave with deaths dropping everywhere around the country. The fact remains that we have not had a Tuesday-Friday with less than 600 deaths yet and your quote was "we rarely get to 600".

Look at the daily death chart here (on a site you yourself have quoted from):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Hospitalizations are up. Deaths unfortunately are likely to follow. What is worse though is your posts give the impression that all this is overblown. That is exactly the type of sentiment out there causing people to be reckless that will probably lead to 100,000 unnecessary deaths in the country (led by the lack of leadership from the top).

No one argues that deaths have not decreased. We got through a bad initial wave, especially in NY and NJ. We saved lots of lives by shutting down the economy. We got better at treating COVID so some of the decline in the death rate is because we got better at caring for it.

But now cases are up and your posts just ignore that and are the exact type of thing that leads to a worsening pandemic. I stand by the comment of cherry-picking data because you have used the weekend data to show decreases that were not as dramatic as reality. And used sites that are a little later on reporting like the CDC to again highlight a trend that is not as good as you portray it.

We would have have probably had 300,000-500,000 deaths already if we had not shut down the economy. We probably going to hit 250,000 anyway. So don't compare us to past flu pandemics that were not as contagious or deadly. It is apples and oranges.

California_Dreamin 2020-07-02 17:05:11 UTC #69

allentown..I believe you are wrong, especially when you compliment the governors. The governors blame beaches and small restaurants for the spike yet encouraged the protests. And they never mentioned these when it is patently obvious that the cases spiked after the protests, protests that in some cases the governors actively participated in. Many of the governors lack moral courage, they are moral cowards. Newsom, Wolf, Murphy, Whitmer, Pritzker, Mills, Cuomo, Ige, Lamont, Sisolak.

In many cases they were the problem, putting covid patients back in nursing homes, causing at least 25% of the deaths that we are continually citing. And not one mention of their inadequacies, its easier to blame the public. Have you been to a restaurant since the virus started. I have...at least 10 of them. And if our governors ran their states with the common sense that restaurant owners do our states would be in much better shape. You see, restaurant owners, gym owners, salon owners et all have to run their businesses well and safely or they would go out of business. Not one of these restaurants had to close down due to inefficiency, only the governor was able to do that.

Just yesterday, San Quentin Prison, the most famous prison in California suddenly had an outbreak of covid, with over 200 cases. Why did this happen? Last week they had 0. But our governor had prisoners from other prisons sent to San Quentin and many of said prisoners had the virus. Now San Quentin's numbers have added to California's daily numbers. causing hysteria when it was Governor Newsom's fault that this happened in the first place.

So, allentown my friend, you can praise the governors if you wish for their wisdom...not me. I could name 10 people on this site with more wisdom than the 10 governors I listed. And they are ruining American lives daily with their lack of moral courage.
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California_Dreamin 2020-07-02 17:15:24 UTC #70

andyb...worldometer changes their numbers often and their time frame is wildly inconsistent, I know because I have followed that site since the beginning of this virus. Sometimes they take numbers till 6:30 pm Pacific time and sometimes as early as 5:30 pm Pacific time. And they take "probable" cases, cases where the person wasn't even tested. Hospitals admit that they get money for covid patients so they have a reason to say someone is "probable" when he may in fact have the flu.

Covid tracking project has stricter guidelines, and given the seriousness of the virus I want stricter, now looser. We are never going to agree on this, that's fine. I simply believe our country and leaders at the local level lack moral courage, I believe it. Look, this is not a case of having fear, I fear this virus also, I am no spring chicken. But I have a John Wayne saying on my wall and I read it every day, it inspires me to move forward. It says "Courage is being scared to death, and saddling up anyway."

I simply believe its time to saddle up and save our country.

LoneStarPhan 2020-07-02 17:30:42 UTC #71

I am sure that there are projections for the number of deaths anticipated by state and by month going into this year. Such projections are likely quite accurate in normal times. Now if we use such projections against the actual deaths over this year, we should be able to look back and estimate the increased deaths due to the COVID outbreak. Of course, there can be other factors, but seems to me this would give a reasonable picture of the increased deaths from COVID.

andyb 2020-07-02 18:08:12 UTC #72

They change their estimates because they reclassify new data on the correct date. The data does not disappear. And they use the same standard on probable deaths that the CDC does.

And we still seem to be underestimating the death count by as much as 30% (with the larger underestimates in these Sunbelt states where the case numbers are taking off like TX (55% undercount) and AZ (53%).

Attacking a credible messenger is a way of dismissing data (or cherrypicking data). I don't attack the CDC data (other than the political idiots occasionally speaking in front of Trump). I just note that there are delays in certifying that data that lag behind other sources. The counts are only 3,000 apart and most of that is stuff from the past week where they will catch up and be the same as the other sources (like a death count yesterday of over 600).

julio 2020-07-02 18:22:04 UTC #73

Are you kidding? Seriously?

How many posts can we quote where you heaped praise on Worldmeter, as the "best" source of data - because it gave you numbers that supported your preconceived ideas?

Now you don't like their numbers... so you change to a different set of numbers, and pan your former 'gold standard'?!

This isn't analysis. It's advocacy. You're entitled to advocate for what you believe, of course - but don't dress that advocacy up as objective analysis.

California_Dreamin 2020-07-02 18:35:07 UTC #74

Oh no, I don't dislike their numbers, just found out that their numbers change [witness when they allowed Delaware to add 6 days of numbers and NJ, which added 50+ deaths that had actually occurred several weeks earlier.] The Project gives numbers on a 24 hour basis, which I find more current. And julio, are you suggesting we aren't allowed to alter our thought process as we gather more information? There was a time when I thought Ruben Amaro was going to become one of the greatest GM's in Phillie history.

Let's face it, until March none of us had even heard of either site, I would hope you allow us to change our opinions as we learn more about these sites. Worldometer has its place and is certainly a site that can be visited and quoted, I have done it often. But I was dismayed that their numbers would change depending on how long they stayed with one day...sometimes 25 hours, sometimes more, sometimes lesss. The Project has a 24 hour period and then offers their numbers. I agree with andyb that its the 7 day trends that tell us the most info but even here the Project is more effective, it tabulates the weekly numbers so you can compare and contrast.

Both are good sites, but one is stricter, which I prefer.

rpmcmurphy 2020-07-02 18:42:21 UTC #75

CD, I don’t want andyb getting blamed for something I did. It was me. And I stand by it.

This is an example of how you cherry pick numbers to your liking. The facts are this:

“The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that in total, the virus killed one million people worldwide from its beginning in July 1968 until the outbreak faded during the winter of 1969–70. The CDC estimated that about 34,000 to 100,000 people died in the U.S.”

Even at the upper end of that range, the U.S. deaths were spread over 18 months versus the approximately 5.5 months so far.
There was no social distancing, masks, or other mitigation efforts AT ALL back then. Without the too-late and too-weak effort we have made in this country the death total would be several times higher than what it is. With NO mitigation, as with the Hong Kong pandemic, the numbers from Covid would be over 1,000,000 U.S. dead when all is said and done.
Medical science is far superior today, and has helped to mitigate today’s death toll somewhat.

In addition to cherry picking, you are comparing apples to oranges. Your stance on this is a veritable fruit salad.

Look, I truly enjoy your baseball posts. You and I are from the same era and I absolutely love your historical references. But this is not a starting rotation we are discussing here. The reason I get so negative with your Covid posts is because I truly believe that those in power who have followed your line of thinking have caused an unprecedented disaster that is no where close to ending.

Look at the death and infection rates in the Western democracies in Europe versus our country, which I love as much as you do. It is an unmitigated failure of leadership we have had here.

andyb 2020-07-02 18:43:09 UTC #76

They properly counted in both those instances. In NJ it showed up on the current day for about 6 hours. Then they took it down, reclassified each death to the proper day, and put it back up. The numbers did not change. The details just got more accurate.

California_Dreamin 2020-07-02 18:51:31 UTC #77

rpmcmurphy...thanks for the kind words and I knew we were from the same era, actually I think many who post disagreements with me on this thread are from the same era, thus the concern. I get it. Heck, if you are 21 you probably aren't even reading this thread, I completely understand.

And as I mentioned to julio, I hope I am allowed to change my mind or alter my views based on more information, I have acknowledged several times that if/when I am convinced I am wrong about this I won't need anyone to remind me, I will do it. Still, as Djimon Hounsou said when saying at the end of the movie that someday he would see Russell Crowe..."but not today."

California_Dreamin 2020-07-02 18:57:55 UTC #78

By the way, that quote was from The Gladiator and I believe the actual quote was, "but not yet."

LoneStarPhan 2020-07-02 19:07:13 UTC #79

schillingfan 2020-07-02 19:41:47 UTC #80

That is the argument CD ignores. I think it is fair to compare the two, as the EU has 440 million as compared to our 330 million and they were hit only a few weeks before the U.S. why are most European countries reporting only hundreds of cases, while our states are reporting thousands. The graphs are above and they haven’t changed, except the U.S. curve is going up drastically.

I suppose the hospitals in Arizona and Texas are issuing huge red fags because they want Trump to lose, or some other motive. You have to believe all these local officials and medical professionals and administrators are part of some nefarious conspiracy to scare us. Less deaths is good. Greater hospitalizations is not.

zambonir 2020-07-02 20:33:33 UTC #81

Texas has now issued a statewide mask order. And, after initially undercutting local authorities who wanted to have stricter rules (including masks), Abbott is also allowing all counties to limit gatherings at 10 if necessary. Bars have already been closed again.