Coronavirus (general - personal, gov't response, etc. - not sports-specific)

julio 2020-12-11 21:36:19 UTC #264

You probably should have said "will not," rather than "may not." There's simply no question that, in the US at least, it's going to be several months before there's a supply of vaccines to inoculate even a majority of the population. Priorities will have to be established (and probably re-visited in January, to assure that the Trump people used rational approaches) - I would assume that front-line healthcare workers, and people in especially vulnerable populations, would be the first priority. These latter to include the elderly in institutions, and employees in sectors that involve lots of interpersonal contact (grocery workers, people shipping/logistics, etc.).

I'm a senior citizen (e.g, over 65), but realistically, I'm not especially vulnerable - because I have (by choice) little or no exposure to potential virus carriers. We do not go out socially at this time (not to restaurants, not to theaters, not to church); we've even taken to having groceries delivered rather than going to the grocery store. (A $7.95 delivery fee is a small price to pay, on a $300 grocery order, for peace of mind!) So, I don't expect to be vaccinated until some time in the spring - probably at my next regular semi-annual visit to my primary care physician (assuming they have a reliable vaccine available at that time that doesn't require liquid nitrogen storage, which I doubt they'd try to handle in-office!). I see no need to try to push ahead in line just because "I'm old!"

zambonir 2020-12-11 21:58:34 UTC #265

There are obviously both privacy issues and compelling public interest reasons to have such a system, but there's no doubt admission to things like concerts and sporting events could initially be contingent on proof of vaccination. Ticketmaster is already working on that (which is of course, sinister).

I'm not sure it will really come to that though - you're not gonna have a baseball game with 10,000 fans that are vaccine-only. I suppose it's possible you might have sections like that. But because of how long it is going to take for distribution and implementation, masks and social distancing will also remain in place. We just might see states like California allowing larger crowds under such circumstance.

But back to normal? Close to sold out venues, regular concert tours and theater schedules, sports going back to its usual rhythms? September at the earliest. Which is why we don't really yet know what baseball is going to be like either. I read a story yesterday that said the owners might want to both delay and shorten the season so that by the time they play 100 games it will be with fans, but even in that scenario it's still not gonna be normal attendance, whether due to restrictions or just lack of desire by fans to risk it.

julio 2020-12-11 23:11:41 UTC #266

You can only do so much delay, given weather realities. They could shorten up, so that the August/September games represent a larger percentage of the season... but given all the changes that have occurred over the years, there are already a large number of clubs that are still theoretically in post-season contention in August (not like the "old days"). Unless you defer Opening Day to August 1st, you're still going to have bad teams that are effectively out of it by Labor Day.

zambonir 2020-12-11 23:57:03 UTC #267

Depends how far they want to go You could just start the season on June 1 and play 100 games no problem. May 15, 120. They won't be able to wait until the attendance reality changes, but they can trim from that part of the schedule that is least lucrative.

As it is it won't take much for the season to start a month late - two-week delay to open spring training (whether for safety reasons or labor dispute reasons), perhaps even an additional two-week delay because they're on an every-other-day 50% capacity schedule for the first half of spring training (while also not starting minor league spring training until after the MLBers leave).

BostonRoss 2020-12-12 03:02:02 UTC #268

A couple of days ago, Massachusetts published its three stages for vaccine distribution, which are expected to last through June. They're pretty much what you'd expect. Interesting that the second stage includes persons with at least one co-morbidity. Isn't obesity a co-morbidity? Hmm, might want to delay that diet...

schillingfan 2020-12-12 03:29:33 UTC #269

T definitely is. Looking at remember stories of people who died, other than elderly, they are most often overweight and likely t be a minority.

zambonir 2020-12-12 06:57:16 UTC #270

"until summer 2021" is the rest of the headline. Basically, we're gonna still be living in a masked, distanced and reduced capacity world unitl July. Perhaps baseball will be able to do 50% or better attendance if either proof of vaccination or proof of testing is in the mix. Of course that restriction probably won't affect the Phillies anyway!

LoneStarPhan 2020-12-12 08:18:55 UTC #271

Every person who gets vaccinated is a step in the right direction, but clearly the process is going to take time. I suspect 2021 is going to be another year where normal activities are going to be restricted. I hope that we can see a decline in cases during the first six months of the year and then not see a fall/winter spike like we are seeing this year. But really, we don't know what 2021 will bring. I certainly hope that by fall, we will see sporting events with crowds, stores and other businesses open without restriction, churches unrestricted, concerts packing in people, etc. If so, the normal family holiday gatherings late in the year could occur again.

andyb 2020-12-12 13:17:23 UTC #272

I think it is highly likely that baseball will start on time. Things should be better in March than they are now and we are playing football. This does not mean fans will be in the park in large numbers until something like July, but remember that warm weather will slow the virus and by the time we get to late March we'll probably be at something like 100 million people vaccinated assuming a couple more vaccines come online.

The reality is an organization like MLB will probably be able to secure vaccine doses by April. Once we start vaccinating non-elderly people it will be the wealthy that jump to the top of the line. That won't be for the first few months, but it will happen.

zambonir 2020-12-12 16:28:48 UTC #273

My feeling that baseball won't start on time is based more on business than health, though the one stems from the other - it seems the owners still have zero interest in playing a full season/paying full salaries with empty or 25% attendance, and negotiations over both that and the expanded playoffs will drag out.

Either health precautions or labor talks could delay spring training a month anyway.

zambonir 2021-01-02 05:04:40 UTC #274

Jeff05 2021-01-02 08:45:53 UTC #275

Well, that made for 'fun' lunchtime reading . . .

“Exponentials are so cruel that nobody wants to look them in the eye,”

So, basically, we have a country where many people are reluctant to practice social distancing and wear a mask, a much more virulent strain has entered the population and the roll-out of the vaccine has been 'slow'! It was expected that by now 20 million people would have received their first dose of the vaccine. In fact, only about 2.8 million doses have been given. And, now The New York Times is reporting about secret New Year's Eve parties.

Each day, around 2pm Perth time, I check the Latest Map and Case Count from The New York Times in what seems to have become a macabre ritual. A quick glance at the rising number of cases and the deaths is followed by a closer examination of what is happening in some of the States and their hospitals. As the author of the zambonir's article points out: 'How we react in the next few weeks will matter immensely.'

zambonir 2021-01-02 16:51:00 UTC #276

Things will get better than this:

_How badly are we doing? In September, President Trump promised 100 million vaccinations by the end of the year. As a country, we have only 40 million doses, and had aimed, according to Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar, to vaccinate 20 million by year-end. That’s bad enough. But we have administered only 2 million of those — barely 10 percent of the goal. At this rate, achieving sufficient vaccination to reach herd immunity and bring the pandemic to a close in the U.S. will take about seven years.

But things I assumed would be possible in April or even June (i.e. travel, baseball fans in every city) already seem less so.

But then there is also the extent to which at least 25% of the population might just not bother (or actively refuse) to get the vaccine. That number is also said to reflect MLB players.

BostonRoss 2021-01-02 19:06:47 UTC #277

Yes, things will be much better than this. Providing yet another inane quote from Trump at a time he was trying to get reelected is irrelevant; leading this part of the article with this quote detracts form the point to be made. And the words "at this rate" imply that the process will not improve (based on what is obviously a very SSS for the current rate). Are the real experts saying the so-far low rate of vaccination will continue? If not, this is just hyperbolic sensationalism.

I've previously made my utter contempt for Trump clear. There is a point to be made that accelerating the initial vaccinations would be better, but it seems the author is more interested in piling on Trump, who will not be in charge of anything in the process in less than three weeks.

allentown 2021-01-02 19:28:04 UTC #278

I point fingers at Trump administration and the hospitals. Millions of doses in stock at Pfizer, awaiting government release and directions where to ship them. Millions of doses at hospitals and not administered. Hundreds of thousands of antibody doses available at hospitals, who won't use them. No sense of urgency as we await the post-Christmas/New Years surge of cases. This is far from acceptable. Trump's guys are here two more weeks. They absolutely need some sharp elbows to get the job done. Stalling to give a big surge of cases as Biden takes office? I don't know. The inertia is strange and we are WAAAY behind the schedule announced by the Warp Speed guys. And, the hospitals (some) have dosed more senior staff with little patient contact in favor of those on the front lines in ERs and Covid wards. Radiologists? Pathologists? State Legislators? It's become an all-around SNAFU.

julio 2021-01-02 20:22:20 UTC #279

The thing is, announcing a schedule is pretty meaningless if you don't have the infrastructure to deliver on that schedule. Warp Speed drove vaccine production, and is coordinating shipping to states. And there it ends - because there's no federal infrastructure within states to do the "last mile" (or several intermediate steps), and no existing state infrastructure... and no federal funds to build the state infrastructure. Given that the states are financially strapped (loss of revenue due to COVID, no ability to deficit-finance like the feds), they can't build the infrastructure without federal involvement and/or funding.

This won't change, at a minimum, until January 20th. It remains to be seen how aggressive the new administration will be in addressing this problem.

This should have been a federal operation from end to end - from pushing vaccine development, to organizing production (Defense Production Act), to managing the shipment of vaccine not only to states, but to end-point vaccination sites, and to staffing up those vaccination sites. Need refrigerators/freezers? Procure them (use DPA if needed). Hire, train, equip. All of this costs money. The feds haven't put up the money, and nobody else HAS the money. Doh.

andyb 2021-01-02 21:20:19 UTC #280

These things always start slowly as they figure out their supply chains and, frankly, how to identify the people that should be on the priority list. The clearly overpromised for 2020 based on politics, but this was always going to start slowly. Vaccines 2 (Moderna) and 3 (Astrazeneca) have progressively easier cooling requirements, so that will ease the logjam too.

The Biden administration will certainly be more competent and add some needed structure, but I still see the possibility of getting to the 70% or so needed for herd immunity by the end of July. This won't be in time for baseball to have the stands full for the first half of the year, but it probably allows 25% attendance in April, maybe exclusive to people who have had the vaccine already.

schillingfan 2021-01-03 18:47:22 UTC #281

It is true that things always start slowly in Starting phases. But Biden pointed out that there was no plan to put the vaccine in the arms. The administration responded that there was a plan to distribute the vaccine. It turns out the “in the arms” were the operative words. The administration had always sloughed Covid19 not the states starting with testing. It’s clear they had no plans or interest in doing anything other than dumping the vaccines on the states. Anyone who gave a damn would have foreseen the need to plan ahead of time with the states. It should have all been schemed out ahead of time. The states couldn’t plan without knowing the number of doses they were going to get. I agree the states know their own infrastructure best, such as using pharmacies or hospitals, but weaknesses could have been identified and plans made.

allentown 2021-01-06 15:15:30 UTC #282

Disgusting attempt to 'sell' vaccine for future donations from wealthy by owner of nursing homes in FL.

bkeich 2021-01-06 18:23:09 UTC #283

With a little luck they publically execute the director and board members.

Ahh, too much to hope for I guess