Saw a comment from BA today that if you're picking 6-10 in this years draft you definitely prefer the 2024 class but if you are picking 11-30 you prefer the 2025 draft class.
Burkholder was a defensible pick. Even if he doesnât pan out his tools are obvious. The problem was Nori. I want the best for him and I see some potential, but at the end of the day they drafted a physically mature 19 year old who needed to project strength to make him into a prospect. Itâs like using hope as a strategy and contrary to what Barber had previously valued. Certainly not a good pick to combine with high risk second rounder. Neither of those guys had a shot at being first round picks based on merit.
Itâs like the hypothetical- if next years draft looks deeper than this years, should you punt the pick this year to get an extra pick next year? The answer is no- donât pass up the best available now on the gamble of a better next year. Same thing with passing over better first round talents to get a better second rounder.
If Burkholder were the first pick and Nori second would you still have the same thoughts. I rank them that way as prospects too though also recognize Nori as a high floor type of guy. Yes there certainly were better players than either that were available at 27. Burkholder may have been the best talent at 63 though.
Going for 2 HS players the Phillies were always going to spend a bit extra compared to slot (the 2 combined for $5 million against 2 slots that added up to a little less than $4.6 million. It is just not clear to me here that they did a bad thing. I am also not the biggest Nori fan, but young guys with big arms carry risks and they probably did not like the college arms available there. We'll see if they end up correct, but their strategy is at least defensible.
This. And as frustrating as it can be, when you draft HS kids in the first rounds, it's typically going to be a while (as in, years) before you really know whether it's worked. In the meantime, we look at these kids' early performance and try to project what it means... but it's largely guesswork at this point. But we don't like to just "not know," so we guess.
Hey, at least Nori is off to a (slightly) better start than Mickey Moniak at the same level.
Actually he is not off to a better start. Moniak had a 625 OPS in Lakewood at age 19 in his first season and Nori is a year older and doing his Low A time in a more neutral environment in Clearwater (645 OPS).
I'd grade Moniak higher adjusting for age and park, though draft position and bonus means Nori is doing a little better relative to value expended in the choice.
Well I was kind of joking, but also not really thinking about park. Just that it's the same level. The age thing is certainly more salient.
But yeah, I think people talk about their disappointment with Nori - after eight weeks - as if he was a higher (and higher $) pick. He's not even Cornelius Randolph high.
Itâs a new era for the development of HS draft picks. They are jumping into a deep pool in low A in their first full year of pro ball. If they look around, they will see good college players and rising LA players who have managed to survive the brutal weeding out of Latin prospects. This is not exactly GCL-->NYPL-->lowA-->high A like it was before. A HS prospect could go to GCL in June/July and play against other HS guys and mid-level LA players, and the organization could speed up or slow down their progress accordingly, placing them in their first full year in the NYPL or a weaker low-A league. HS guys that are going to succeed now will have to learn how to develop and live with a bit of failure for a while (and we will have to live with it as fans, too). If Nori or Burkholder is going to be an MLB player, they will need to show signs by next year at the latest They are going to have to pass the majority of guys they are playing with in terms of production. They are not getting the chance to play in a league of players their own age and experience level, as they used to in the GCL and NYPL (for the most part). They are behind their league right now and will have to develop and pass them if they are really prospects. Itâs not easy to do that when you are playing with and against better players, more experienced players, but worse prospects.
Very true. I think it was a BA podcast that mentioned execs now evaluate a draft after 2 years instead of what used to be 5ish.
I'm not sure I would have felt any better if they had taken Burkholder first and Nori second. I acknowledge that I place too much credence on rankings but both would have been reaches at 27. I would say that Burkholder at 63 made me feel a little better about Nori at 27 but not completely. Not taking a pitcher until the 8th round still irks me too (especially since we aren't spending money on pitching in Latin America either).
Latest MLBPipeline Mock (Callis) gave us Luke Stevenson, C, UNC but also mentioned Xavier Neyens, 3B, HS, Slater de Brun, OF, HS or Matthew Fisher, RHP, HS. He's the second guy to connect us with Fisher now.
I have to think we would really prefer a pitcher with our pick this year. Our catching pipeline is decent. We just don't have many pitchers beyond Painter and Abel at the moment that look like more than middle relievers. Our middle pitching prospects (Chace, Cabrera, Castellano, McFarlane, Seth Johnson, McGarry) have really taken a step back this season. Starting pitching is looking like an organizational weakness as we move guys like Johnson and eventually McFarlane to the bullpen.
