2025 MLB Draft Speculation

[zambonir]

Keith Law mock has us going with Jack Bauer, HS LHP who can hopefully defuse a bomb also in an emergency.

We already did this

[andyb]

He has mocked us Bauer twice in a row. That comment was from the first time.

[zambonir]

Oh I know I just meant you'd already made the "24" joke (in addition to it being a repeat mock pick from Law)

[BostonRoss]

“You’re gonna have to trust me…”

[bkox]

oh I missed it the first time. oops,

[zambonir]

I was gonna make one about lack of plate discipline but he's a pitcher.

[schillingfan]

How about having lack of command?

[zambonir]

Finally, I understand the difference between command and control.

[andyb]

ESPN Mock. Matthew Fisher HS RHP.

The Phillies have had some success with being more open to prep right-handers in the first round than the average team (Andrew Painter, Mick Abel), though they haven't done it of late. This is the juncture in the draft where the next tier of prep arms behind Seth Hernandez (Schoolcraft, Cam Appenzeller, Aaron Watson, Landon Harmon) will go flying off the board and the Phillies seem to be most interested in Fisher of this group.

2025 MLB mock draft 1.0: Who will go No. 1 to the Nationals?

[phillychuck]

Are the HS players more difficult to sign now with NIL amounts going up?

[Squire]

First time the Phillies have been connected to someone based on interest

Fisher is 43 on MLB.com list and 100 on BA's list. He's also 19 already.

[zambonir]

I would imagine some were, and we'll also see more college kids pass up offers to take transfer portal (or retention) NIL.

This is also the first time NCAA baseball has 34 scholarships (up from 11, which were usually all partial), starting next season.

[andyb]

Are the HS players more difficult to sign now with NIL amounts going up?

That would be logical though I assume NIL money does not affect the first rounders. The Logan O'Hoppes of the world with mid-level bonuses in the $100K-$500K range would certainly do better in college. Remember NIL money is yearly instead of a 1-time bonus, so $200K-$300K for 3 years adds up to something very competitive.

Of course MLB made their minor league changes before NIL money was big, but now they may be rewarded for that strategy if colleges are much more competitive financially. Still does not solve the Keith Law coaching and usage issues.

[Squire]

As much as we might follow it, my gut reaction is that NCAA baseball is a significantly lower priority for Universities than Football and Basketball. Can't imagine that many programs have a significant NIL budget for baseball but I also am not certain about that either.

[zambonir]

Texas Tech gave one softball pitcher $1 million this year. Deals for any one player can be as small as $20K a year and as high as $200-500K a year (for a much smaller number of guys) but the money is only getting bigger and at most big schools a collective is paying every player on the roster (plus they get to to go college). It only takes a couple of boosters who love baseball most, as well as ADs committed to it.

And the new revenue-sharing models haven't kicked in yet. Will still be peanuts compared to football (and some basketball programs also feel that way, as we saw when Maryland's coach left for Villanova) but I think it's definitely going to be a more viable path.

[andyb]

This reddit thread discusses some of the NIL budgets..

https://www.reddit.com/r/collegebaseball/comments/1jafkgj/baseball_nil/

Looks like top programs spend in the $3-$5 million range with the best players around $500K-$800K. Spread among 30 players and you must have lots of players getting less than $50K but imagine the players that could go in the top 50 of a draft are getting several hundred thousand.

Clearly the big football programs are spreading the money around with the SEC becoming a leader (remember the NCAA basketball tournament and that did not happen by chance). A full scholarship plus even $50K a year will be really enticing for the player who might be a 4th or 5th round pick out of HS.

[fish]

First time the Phillies have been connected to someone based on interest

Fisher is 43 on MLB.com list and 100 on BA's list. He's also 19 already.

I’m not crazy about the idea of drafting a 19 year old who needs an uptick in stuff in the first round, but his delivery and athleticism look good. Not a first round profile for me

Barber is at his best when he goes with the obvious best pick in the first round. I really hope they don’t try to get “creative” again, and that they get some value from their 2nd and 3rd picks this year and go after some power arms instead of “fast” outfielders. Last years draft and international class were stinkers that if they can’t repeat.

[andyb]

To be fair, drafting Nori and Burkholder as an under and over slot pair in the first 2 rounds was a bit creative but not a bad strategy if you consider both fringe first round talents. If somebody like Fisher takes an under slot bonus like Nori that lets us get a better talent in the second round then I am fine with that strategy. My one hope is they still go for the best player available for the dollars they have available.

Pitching does seem a system weakness now after a few years of little internationally or at the top of the draft after Painter.

[allentown]

I’m not crazy about the idea of drafting a 19 year old who needs an uptick in stuff in the first round

I agree and would rather gamble on him still being available in round 2.

[zambonir]

It seems like an entirely defensible strategy when you are drafting 26th (or, as in the previous two years, 27) and 63rd. They got lucky with Miller because of his injury. The four great picks they made in the four years before that were all between 14 and 17. They also didn't have second-round picks three of those four years (nor the year they took Miller).

But it's still just a mock. What does "Phillies seem to be most interested in Fisher of this group" really mean and who's to say they see him as their #1.