2024 Trade Deadline Speculation

[andyb]

So Casty could be the All Star upgrade we need if he gets back to what he did last year?

[zambonir]

I gather it's an MLB-wide issue, depressed outfielder offense (or, perhaps, a preference for defense?)

Bellinger has the third-highest OPS at .784, not what $27.6 million is supposed to buy you. Then it's Conforto, Hernandez, Tatis Jr. and Marsh.

I missed one guy above .800, Heliot Ramos (guess I should have voted for him).

Duvall and Rosario both awful. And Corbin Carroll's a bigger problem than Rojas still.

Better modest trade options on the AL side though the presumably not-modest Arozarena is at .591 OPS.

Matt Vierling has been having a good season.

[andyb]

Luis Robert is at .866 and in CF so he'd definitely be an upgrade. He'd be more expensive than Tucker potentially because of his contract and the extra value in CF. One also wonders if they are fine with Rojas and his defense no matter what. If so then they are more likely looking at a bench upgrade to pinch hit for Rojas.

[zambonir]

For sure I just don't think they are really going to shop on that shelf, whether for Rojas or Castellanos. I still say just replace Pache with a decent bench OF bat and replace Merrifield with Clemens (or Dahl). But the "decent bench OF bat" options didn't look as good as I thought they might. Which is also how the Phillies felt last year too obviously.

[andyb]

Or replace Merrifield with that OF bat. Not sure I want to give up on Pache quite yet and it really is not like we use Merrifield in a lot of situations where he is the best alternative. When Trea is back Sosa will just be better than Merrifield in every plausible situation offensively and defensively.

[zambonir]

Yeah but I think you need a LHB on the bench, and a RHB to play LF. Otherwise you've got Pache/Rojas which is two weak bats or Marsh/Pache which is duplicative of Marsh/Rojas. Or you have a LHB OF and Marsh in CF but I don't think they really want to do that to Rojas.

I'm just assuming Pache can be included in one off the two trades (the other being for a reliever). But they gotta be willing to gas Merrifield.

[zambonir]

Gelb noted this the other day:

The Phillies do not have a set plan for left field. They have lagged in offensive production from their outfield all season; the Phillies entered Monday with a .635 OPS from the outfielders. That ranked 25th in Major League Baseball. (Oddly enough, outfielders across MLB had a .694 OPS, which would be the lowest for that position since 1917.)

David Dahl joins the party as the Phillies begin the outfield replacements dance

[andyb]

That probably refers more to the next couple of weeks without Marsh. Wilson is in the mix too and may not get in a game since Dahl has played well and the Phillies see the need to try to fix Merrifield at the moment rather than give Wilson a chance (who will almost certainly be optioned when the first injured player is back).

[zambonir]

yeah I wasn't pointing to the Phillies' LF situation but rather the decline in OF offense leaguewide (which still doesn't make the Phillies' ranking look good but when you've got the IF and pitching they have....)

[xogfog]

I think a fair trade for Luis Robert Jr. would be Rojas, Crawford, Abel and Caba.

[VoteForKalas]

I'll pass. Robert has a serious injury history and is too undisciplined at the plate. His youth, talent and being controllable for several years has value, but I'd let another team roll the dice on him.

[Patchmk88]

I may be in the minority but I still really like Rojas’ potential. His defense is great (even if he’s made some boneheaded mistakes this year), and his bat is really quick. He’s got to figure out how to recognize pitches and work on his swing path, but the quick bat gives him a better chance to figure out the hitting.

[julio]

His defense is great (even if he’s made some boneheaded mistakes this year)

Lots of Phillies fans remember Shane Victorino fondly...but in any discussion of boneheaded mistakes, his name really shouild come up...

Which is to say, one really shouldn't evaluate a player on the basis of singular incidents, no matter how memorable they may be!

[zambonir]

I don't think you're in the minority. There may be a plurality that thinks he's not the answer this season but that's not the same thing as thinking he has no future. Nor is thinking that trading his future WAR for greater present WAR isn't at least a consideration.

If Rojas could play as many AAA games as Victorino did he'd probably be in very good developmental shape!

[allentown]

So do I. He also needs to learn to avoid being picked off. He is raw but he has been positive WAR his whole time in Philly. Along with Marsh, Stott, Sosa, and Bohm he is a guy to build upon. Harper will continue to be with us. Schwarber won't be extended. I don't think J.T. offered as many years as he will want. Casty's role should be diminished and continue in that direction in future years. Pache is worth keeping as a spare OF. Turner is an asset for several more seasons, I expect.

[LoneStarPhan]

I continue to be baffled as to why so much negativity surrounds Rojas.He has done pretty well at the major league level, IMO, but he needs to play regularly. I think he could do that with the Phillies, but they clearly are not ready to commit to playing him full time. Playing full time at AAA for awhile should give him the chance to master skills that will serve him well when he returns to the Phillies.

[Austinfan]

Crawford and Miller should start for Reading next year unless they flop the second half.
That would put them on a 2026 trajectory if they're for real.
Given they're stuck with Castellanos, and will probably extend Schwarber, Marsh/???, Rojas, Crawford/Castellanos.
Sang is the wildcard, after a slow start looking pretty solid in Reading.

Not sure they can add another big contract with Castellanos and Walker being paid through 2026.

[zambonir]

If Castellanos and Walker need to be moved out they'll find a way (including just eating one of those deals if it comes to it). They will likely want to avoid the top tax threshold this year but that doesn't mean they can't hit it next year.

I wouldn't extend Schwarber. Maybe if he's ready to take the sort of two-year deal and older player gets but if he's good enough to extend he's also probably good enough to do better. Opening up that DH spot creates a lot more pathways to a better team.

[andyb]

Not sure I would count on the prospects like Sang. 4th/5th OF prospect at best. Miller is the guy who they might have to clear a spot for. Much more confidence in him than in Crawford at the moment. Who knows where Miller could play, but it probably could almost be anywhere (SS, 3B, LF, push Turner to OF). Hitters play.

As for this deadline, they have a month to get a feel for things. Ideally they want Castellanos to play better a make a minor bench tweak (OF better than Dahl and Merrifield and Pache). The next month will tell us if they can do that.

[Aquapong]

I like Schwarber, but not having him penciled in the DH spot all the time would open up opportunities.