2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[Aquapong]

Baseball needs buyouts like hockey.

I thought the broadcast last night said Kelly was coming back from the DL. Hopefully he’s rusty.

[zambonir]

They are being careful but I don't think it's just because of the injury, they are happy to give him a longer break and keep his innings down heading into the playoffs. They are currently saying the week of the 19th He's throwing a bullpen today and BP on Tuesday so he could do one rehab start. Or it might be later.

[zambonir]

Baseball needs buyouts like hockey.

You'd need an actual salary cap first. Nothing stopping the Phillies from releasing him other than a possible (but insignificant) tax hit if they tried to replace him with another high-paid guy (which they presumably wouldn't).

[Austinfan]

I think if Abel emerges and/or Painter is healthy next year, and they extend Ranger, they'd eat Walker's salary with two cheap kids for a few years as 5th and 6th starters.

[zambonir]

Doesn't even matter what happens with Ranger, he's still here next year regardless, if you can move Walker out there are always other ways to fill that hole in 2026 (and he wouldn't be filling the loss of Ranger).

But it's too soon to proclaim Walker untradable, even - albeit for 50 or 30 cents on the dollar. He obviously needs to show more, but any team could still use the 2023 Walker, and if he can get halfway back to that, plenty of teams would take it at $6 or 8 million. He's not actually old quite yet.

[bkeich]

Walker returns for a start on Tuesday. Probably bad news for turning things around.

Phils are 1-7 in his last 8 starts (although crazy enough 3-0 to start the season) and he is BY FAR our worse starting pitcher this year. No idea why he is returning to be a starter and maximize his innings. Why not just put him at the end of the bullpen, the guys that are starting in his place are not great, but they are better. This is just being stubborn about having paid a guy to be a starter.

[andyb]

But last year Walker was just fine and he has never really relieved. It is an issue with Turnbull too.

The Phillies are not doing this to torture us. They are not doing this to justify the contract (though maybe Walker gets a longer leash because of the contract and his track record).

They are doing this because they think Walker can be better than the alternatives (which have been Mercado, Phillips, and Allard of late). Those 3 have FIPs of 10.55, 4.85, and 5.41 respectively. Only Mercado has been good in AAA and he really is not a starter. Walker has not been good this season but has a track record of being better and an injury excuse for being bad earlier in the season.

It might blow up in their face, but really they don't have anyone better until Suarez and Turnbull are back and it is really looking doubtful we'll see much of Turnbull this year. He is also not even displacing Phillips yet. We might as well see what we have got, especially if we go to 6 starters for a few turns.

[zambonir]

I dunno why you are so obsessed with this. We have seen both Phillips and Allard show signs of being mirages, and Sanchez is struggling too. They need him, and they think they have solved his issues (both his velocity/grip and his injury). They may well be wrong, but the guy was our one of our Top 3 starters last year (second in WAR, first in wins). If they needed him to be that - or even a #4 - this year that would be a problem, and it was also not ideal that they handed him the #5 spot when they did, though I'm still not sure Turnbull wasn't a mirage as well (at least he is health-wise).

But now, it's a no-brainer. They need him to eat some starts. They need to see if he is fixed, not just for the next six weeks but next year. Whether he's 6th in a six-man or just making a couple of starts until Suarez comes back, he's the right guy at this time. And he'd otherwise be taking up a spot in the bullpen where he'd either be unsuitable or would just end up soaking up innings after someone else's disastrous start.

And of course it's also about the money. But I don't think they'd be doing this if the Philliies were only two games up in the East (if that were the case they might have made that trade you wanted so badly).

Right now every Walker inning is just a about saving some better innings in October from someone not named Walker. Even if he goes 0-3 (but this offense, while not exactly up to the task, should be able to win a few of his starts like they did earlier this year).

[andyb]

People seem to be negative on Walker because of the contract. Kind of like Kingery too (where $24 million over 6 years was really not a waste of too much money). Some of this is the press. Some is expectations. But once the contract is signed and understanding that veterans with some track record will always get priority when there are choices - the Phillies really have not extended any more courtesy to him than anyone else.

They benched him in the postseason last year because of roles and recent performances. They have slow walked him this year when he was recovering from injury and pitching poorly even when he said he was fine. Heck I argued to keep Turnbull in the rotation regardless of the innings because of how well he was pitching (and maybe I was wrong then though his injury seems non innings related).

Like it or not we did not go get somebody better at the deadline. I have doubts about all the alternatives too (and the main guys ahead of him are all showing signs of wear). We need a contribution from somebody else.

[zambonir]

I feel bad for Turnbull because he had a lot of incentives based on GS and IP. Plus he seemed to show up ready to accept the optional assignment. Then he ends up making the team. And while his injury history is extensive and frequent, you can't help but think that the flip-flopping from spring training reliever to starter to reliever back to starter made the injury more likely.

They still didn't really need another starter at the deadline. They are surviving this stretch just like they survived Bailey Falter last spring and bullpen games both years. If they go six-man Walker belongs in the mix; if they don't and he stinks Phillips should keep his spot when Suarez comes back. And they still have Allard. And Tyler!

[Austinfan]

If Abel has a few more good starts they may throw him into the mix, he really couldn't be worse than what they've gotten lately from their starters and the experience would do him good going into next season.

[andyb]

If Abel has a few more good starts they may throw him into the mix, he really couldn't be worse than what they've gotten lately from their starters and the experience would do him good going into next season.

Dude has had one good start in a couple of months. Maybe go easy on the excitement there and hope he just has a few decent starts before they shut him down for innings (and the number of pitches he has had to throw in those innings).

There is just no way short of apocalyptic injuries that we should even want to see Abel sniff the majors this year.

[Austinfan]

4 of his last 6.
28.1 24 16 14 20 32
over those six games.
Before that, 3 of 12.

He's regained his velocity, has to improve his control but the stuff seems to be there.
If he turns it around, it could be dramatic.

[andyb]

20 BBs in 28.1 IP and you want to throw him out against major league hitters? Teams just don't do that to top prospects. And if you went 2 starts further back the stats would be much worse (6.03 ERA vs 4.45 with the so-called good ones).

He just is not ready and they should tread carefully as he nears his inning limit (and remember this year's pitches per inning are worse than previous years).

[Austinfan]

No. I said if he has a few more good starts.

They made some changes, he struggled to incorporate them, if he's finally become comfortable with them because of his raw talent the turnaround could be dramatic.

String together 3-4 starts like the last one and they might want to take a look, especially if the alternative is Allard or Phillips or a Walker who is throwing 91-92.

[zambonir]

String together 3-4 starts like the last one and they might want to take a look, especially if the alternative is Allard or Phillips or a Walker who is throwing 91-92.

A guy like Allard is there to take the innings, not to win baseball games (even if he did okay in a few starts). That their presence allows Abel to finish out his AAA season is a feature not a bug, even if we wish Abel had forced the issue sooner. We'll see Tyler get a start before Abel.

[Aquapong]

I didn’t realize the Orioles had Dfa’d Pache and the Marlins claimed him. He must be unhappy coming back into town.

[bkox]

He must be unhappy coming back into town.

Probably just happy to still be on a major league roster (assuming we consider the Marlins a major league roster)

[andyb]

He is going to get more chances in Miami at least. And Sixto Sanchez is reportedly throwing again. Still on the 60-day IL with shoulder issues and he was pretty bad early in the season sitting 94-95 instead of 98+. Just hard to come back from shoulder injuries though he is still only 26 years old.

[zambonir]

I'm sure he'll be happy to come back to town if he can get a few hits. It was a weird deal where the O's wound up getting two more OFs after they acquired him. He's definitely better off on a bad team where he can play a lot and maybe be in their off-season plans versus being the 5th OF on another team with championship aspirations.