2024 Phillies Season Discussion

[zambonir]

I have a hard time imagining Ranger as anything other than a pure starter, and you'd think he can be counted on for longer outings than in the past post-seasons too (both based on his performance and the fact that they won't have him as a back-of-the-mind bullpen option). Of course all bets are off in a long series once everyone has made their first start. And first Ranger has to get right.

Of course Sanchez's road record also doesn't make him an inspiring third starter (or fourth, if that's really an issue and every Game 4 is on the road). I assume he's in the NLDS bullpen.

Turnbull also a possible reliever still.

Soto's been good. Seranthony had been good for a while too. Jose Ruiz was even good for a while. Leverage/role an issue for all of them of course. But it's just hard to go out and get a reliever who then gives you guaranteed results or doesn't have a bad game or two at the worst possible time. Unlike in 2022 the Phillies don't really need one for the stretch run, just for October (and to use all of the arms less frequently between now and October). Though going to a six-man for at least part of August or September also means the seven relievers will pitch more.

[Austinfan]

I think at some point Lazar is going to be brought up, whether to replace Mercado (who shows promise but probably needs another half season in AAA ball) or Ruiz. He's been lights out in Lehigh.

McGarry is more of a long shot, he's still adjusting to a bullpen role.

[zambonir]

Maybe in September. Or if there are are injuries. If they really make a deadline trade they really don't have any room on the roster, regardless of whether Turnbull is a sixth starter or back to being the seventh reliever. Neither of those guys would take a mop-up or long role. You actually want a Mercado or Ruiz in that spot (both for length and to take their lumps when necessary).

If they really go out and get a sure thing Top Four reliever they should probably also just trade Seranthony (I would have included Soto in that until recently). But that could come back and bite them too. Next thing you know Tanner Scott or David Robertson are blowing saves left and right and your castaway is bouncing back. And meanwhile the Royals and the Dodgers and Rangers and many other teams will keep trotting out their version of Jeff Hoffman (or the actual the James McArthur) as closer.

[Austinfan]

They're using Lazar in high leverage situations in Lehigh, 10/11 in save opportunities.
That suggests they see him as a potential piece this season.

Lazar is only 25, COVID and a UCL tear set him back, FB with good spin, plus changeup and slider.

[zambonir]

For sure, but would they repeat what is now viewed as last year's mistake? Don't get me wrong, I'm more on the stand pat side with the bullpen, but going with Turnbull and Lazar this year would basically be the same as Lorenzen/Kerkering last year.

He may get his shot, and heck, maybe it should even be this week just for a look-see. But hard to do without an IL move or DFAing Ruiz.

[Aquapong]

I think they need to teach Kerkering a slider or changeup in the offseason, something with downward movement.

[andyb]

Lazar is a back end guy at best (i.e. Jose Ruiz). Middling fastball and a decent slider but he just does not have great overall stuff. His command must be very good this year to get his results so he'll get a chance, but he is just not somebody they will look at for the playoffs and the top 5 slots in the bullpen which are what will be used in non-blowout games in the playoffs.

[Callison]

Sure didn't expect Phils' pitching to lose a game. Nola , Kerkering and Alvarado ALL had off days.

Kerkering might have to see The Wizard to get some poise. Before yesterday he was looking pretty steady.

Weston Wilson Day yesterday. You gotta like what you see. Might be able to squeeze this guy into the lineup.

[Austinfan]

Three days off can mess with pitchers, and 6 days always messes with Nola.

[zambonir]

They wouldn't be worried about Alvarado if he just had a bad night after the break.

Alvarado had allowed runs in four of his six appearances this month.

The Phillies have wanted to keep Alvarado motivated with constant ninth-inning chances during the season. He had earned them. But, by pitching in the ninth inning more often, Alvarado has faced a higher percentage of righty batters. Righties have hit him hard in 2024. The reason Thomson has liked him in Octobers past as a sixth- or seventh-inning fireman is because the Phillies had a better chance at attaining a platoon advantage. Teams are less willing to pinch hit earlier in games. Alvarado remains a challenge for lefty hitters; they are 4-for-44 with one extra-base hit against him this year.

Righties are 28 for 102 (.275 BA, .359 OBP).

Of course Soto is no answer to that problem.

[Austinfan]

This is the limit of the FB/slider or cutter, you need a changeup or splitter to keep opposing (L v R) hitters honest, reason Wheeler is developing a splitter. Or a two seamer that breaks away to balance a straight 4 seamer.

And one reason Lazar is attractive, changeup and slider means he's not limited in terms of L/R splits.
Kerkering will need to develop a changeup for that reason, and/or a two seamer with a real break away from LH hitters.

[andyb]

We really don't have any good internal solutions at Lehigh Valley. The gap between the majors and AAA has never been larger and all we have down there are some AAAA pieces that can substitute for injuries. The reason we might make a trade is not to upgrade our stopgap solutions. It would be to either add a bullpen arm that can pitch in higher leverage situations or to find a decent bat that could either play for Rojas now or at least platoon with Marsh. We are looking for better players than Kody Clemens or Weston Wilson or Jose Ruiz or Max Lazar.

That is why we might make a trade. We are not going to hope a AAAA player gets better in a higher leverage major league role. Frankly the best solutions might be to fix Alvarado and other bullpen arms that struggle occasionally and then live with Rojas' defense. Upgrade the Pache roster spot inexpensively and hope Wilson and Rojas give you enough around that extra bat (the Tommy Pham type). I'd be wary of paying for the bullpen upgrade since Alvarado and Kerkering might be those upgrades. Getting JT back could help them immensely.

[phillychuck]

Actually, with the very high offensive numbers in AAA, the gap for hitters is larger, but a successful pitcher in AAA projects more easily to the majors in this environment than they did before.

[andyb]

Lazar succeeds largely with deception and not raw stuff. He is just not likely the answer to our potential woes in higher leverage situations. He'll need lots of time in low leverage situations to show he is better than the guys he is competing with (Ruiz, Marte for the moment).

[Austinfan]

Well, that's where he'd be used.

There are few trade candidates who'd be an improvement in high leverage situations, they'd have to be significantly better than Soto, Alvarado and SD to have value in that role.

[zambonir]

Barring a rash of injuries the Phillies don't really seem to need a low-leverage relief arm over the next five weeks, except maybe as chum in September when the games are meaningless (though they'll also have to figure out how to get Nick Nelson and Kolby Allard a few starts in that case). There's no reason for Ruiz to lose that spot to an unknown quantity, and Mercado and Phillips are also options along with Marte. If they go six-man that's one less spot; if they don't, Turnbull is a reliever again.

There are few trade candidates who'd be an improvement in high leverage situations, they'd have to be significantly better than Soto, Alvarado and SD to have value in that role.

There are, in fact, more than enough trade candidates who'd be an improvement over those guys (though I'm also not prepared to overrate Soto or underrate Alvarado). The question is do the Phillies want to pay the price - and maybe even win a bidding war - for one of them? Kirby Yates is a fashionable name lately, if he's actually available. Along with Scott. And Miller who I don't really consider a serious option.

Where it gets tricky is if you're just looking at guys who are about the same. Then you are just adding another guy to the 5/6/7 tier and hoping one of them ends up sticking as the best 5th option in October (while deciding neither Ruiz nor Turnbull are candidates for that chance).

[BostonRoss]

Realmuto activated, Marchan optioned. Also, Marte up for Mercado.

[zambonir]

Well I guess Yunior gets one more turn before the trade deadline. That would also seem to bode well for Wheeler and Suarez taking their turns in Minnesota.

[Austinfan]

Yates is 37, having a great season after a so-so year last year. Before that you have to go back to 2018-19.
Is he really that good, or just on a hot run like Soto has been the last month?

Scott had his career year last year, this year ERA 1.30 but FIP 3.38.

They're probably upgrades, but certainly not sure things.

[andyb]

Figured JT was going to get activated since he was close and Stubbs got hit last night. Marte also makes sense for the roll they need now even though he might get replaced at the deadline.