2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[andyb]

They skip the 5th starter.

[zambonir]

You mean in the regular season?

[zambonir]

But wait, hold the phone!

Member of 2023 Phillies bullpen reclaims success at Triple-A – Phillies Nation

Dylan Covey, the club’s primary option in lopsided games for much of last year, hasn’t appeared in a big-league game in 2024. But, after an injury to start the season, he’s returning to form in Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

In 13 innings across 13 appearances with Lehigh Valley, Covey has a 1.38 ERA with two holds and two saves. He has 15 strikeouts to seven walks. He’s pitched impressively while proving himself healthy and capable of shutting down opposing hitters in the International League.

[andyb]

No, in the playoffs. Don't bother with a 5th starter in a long reliever role they are not suited to anyway. Understand that you might use the bench more day to day because of Rojas playing instead of Hays. An 8-man bullpen should be fine with only one instance of playing 3 days in a row. When we tax the bullpen in close games we always overuse the high leverage guys.

If there is a blowout you just tell the last man in the bullpen (Lazar or Gilbert or Marte) to eat some innings. That game is already lost so why keep a pitcher you never use in a game in which you are competitive.

[zambonir]

Gotcha. I just think now that Walker has actually shown he can pitch in relief it's even easier for him to make the roster. Heck he was even on it in the wild card series last year (over Lorenzen, when they did carry an extra bat). Gibson was in the '22 WC series (and all others) as well. That looks like a pattern to me, and Thomson has been very loyal to Walker (which might also be a product of the tension last year). Since the role doesn't actually require good pitching, just as easy to give it to your high-paid vet as your fringey Iron Pig. I'm not saying this should be the case, but I'm predicting it will be.

And then whether they also go to 9 relievers for the NLCS if they get there remains to be seen. As you note some of it also depends on whether Hays can play (and how much).

[andyb]

I don't think Walker has really shown he can pitch in relief though. One or two good outings is SSS lucky. His split is still not effective and he gets out when his command is good (nibbling and hitting the corners).

Overreaction to small sample sizes should not drive roster decisions. That is why I keep Marte in the mix if he gets healthy. We know he is useful when he is right. Unfortunately we have not seen that for a few months, but I have better confidence in Marte being useful in relief than Walker for instance.

[bkox]

In 13 innings across 13 appearances with Lehigh Valley, Covey has a 1.38 ERA with two holds and two saves. He has 15 strikeouts to seven walks

7 walks in 13 innings doesnt seem impressive to me.

[andyb]

7 walks in 13 innings doesnt seem impressive to me.

Given the giant hole in the back of their bullpen, I assume the Phillies would call up Covey if they thought the stuff was there. So far the answer is no even though the results are good on the surface.

[Austinfan]

In long relief, I'd go Walker over Marte, Marte has always struggled with control, and 20+ pitch innings does not suit a long relief role. Walker as a starter is better suited to eat 2-3 innings.

[andyb]

The issue though is that we probably would not use either in a competitive game. We start going with the 1-inning short relievers in the 3rd or 4th inning if we have to. The only time we would use the last man in multiple innings is in a long extra inning game.

If the choice is keeping Cal Stevenson versus a reliever I am not likely to use, then I think I am keeping Stevenson on the roster who can run or play defense situationally. As I said, if we ask Lazar or Marte to eat 2+ innings for the good of the team then so be it. We are probably losing that game already.

[zambonir]

If you are striking out a guy every inning and have a 1.15 WHIP it's not so bad, though the low BA against is probably not sustainable. But also four of those walks were in one inning in his last game, which makes the whole article kind of hilarious (and bolsters Andy's point. Only 1 run and no hits though!).

[zambonir]

Right but since we're not using either in a competitive game it also doesn't matter who gets the nod. It's not a small sample size, it's no sample at all. It's politics, money, intangibles, longer-term considerations. There were equally good or even more deserving fringe relievers than Walker or Lorenzen last year too. And even having not thrown a relief pitch all year Walker likely would have pitched in a losing blowout. There just never was one. This year at least he's shown he can mop up or even staunch the bleeding occasionally.

I agree they should carry the extra bench guy, possibly throughout, but that also depends on the the way the rotation and schedule and opposing rotation looks when they get there.

[andyb]

I agree they should carry the extra bench guy, possibly throughout, but that also depends on the the way the rotation and schedule and opposing rotation looks when they get there.

Clearly if any starter beyond Wheeler is not giving us more than 4 or 5 innings a night the bullpen will be taxed. The hope is that Nola and Sanchez get you into the 6th inning at least. Then we have enough relievers to make things work.

Doubt we will see many starts into the 7th inning even with Wheeler. Hooks just get quicker in the postseason.

[andyb]

Sosa activated for Kennedy as expected.

[bkox]

2024 is shaping up to be another year of Citizens Bank Park playing neutral for offense:

Combined runs per game by both team in #Phillies games…

8.91 - Phillies home games

8.94 - Phillies away games

_ @TheGoodPhight

— schmenkman ( @tgpschmenk ) September 17, 2024

[zambonir]

Hays update today is positive. He'll work out in NY and they may try to get him to Allentown while there are still games.

https://www.mlb.com/news/phillies-injuries-and-roster-moves

[Aquapong]

Hopefully Nola can get back on track tomorrow.

[flyers19rw]

One of the best moves in the last offseason was Schwarber losing that weight. He’s been able to get some IF hits and move along on the base paths at key times. Kudos to him for doing it.

[Austinfan]

That's funny, CBP is supposed to be a "bandbox."

So much for perception v reality.

[Austinfan]

I think embracing conditioning will extend his career and garner him a 3 year extension.