2024 Phillies Late Season Discussion

[zambonir]

Wilson's done well for himself both in the spot starts against LHP and the clutch moments, but Hays still crushes LHP. Against Sale or Fried, hard not to want the more experienced major leaguer (and the younger player, lol). Plus Hays is a better fielder (and actual OF).

[Philsmania]

Hays looks like a guy who just couldn't catch a break since the Phillies got him and this is pretty much a lost half-season for him. Presume the Phillies will still tender him this offseason.

[andyb]

Stevenson getting a start in CF again tonight. Without Hays it does give Rob a chance to experiment with more left-handed bats in the lineup. I assume he is intrigued with this arrangement. Depending on Hays being healthy we are looking at carrying potentially both Clemens and Stevenson on the postseason lineup. I think Kennedy is the 4th on that list where we can keep 2 or 3 (Wilson, Clemens, Stevenson, Kennedy is probably how the Phillies rank the bench bats now).

I don't think Stevenson is really that good against right-handed pitching compared to major league norms, but a 650 OPS expectation with decent defense on a team that needs to pinch hit for Rojas regularly might be useful.

[zambonir]

Walker back to the starting rotation.

[phillychuck]

Is his splitter back to the starting rotation? Or just the meatball fastball?

[zambonir]

His velocity was up the other day but splitter still seem unfinished. That said, nobody's been better than he was. And it matters not at all (and never did). He's eating innings, and it's all junk food.

[Aquapong]

At this point the #5 guy may only get two more starts.

[zambonir]

Or maybe 3 if they do it on purpose. But either way, Allard or anyone else doesn't give them a better shot (and Allard is still presumably the first bulk reliever after Walker if necessary)

[LoneStarPhan]

It seemed like Hays was just coming around as a hitter when he went on the IL. Tough ending for his season and for the Phillies if he doesn't make it back this season.

I suspect Kennedy is the one who goes down to open the spot for Sosa tomorrow. Wheeler starting for the Phillies and the game they need to win to keep the Brewers from surging too close for comfort.

I anticipate that Bohm is back to cleanup by the time they get to NY, if not sooner.

[zambonir]

Hays had a few good games here and there, just like all these bench guys have been doing in his and Bohm's absence. He started three of the last four games before he got hurt, all at home against Atlanta, and went 2-11 (.181 BA) with no walks. He'd looked good in the Houston series but his OPS against RHP is still lower than Rojas's. If there is an upside to his injury, it's that it put an end to the idea of him as an everyday player this year. I think we're a better team with Marsh and Rojas against RHP and probably also with Marsh and Stevenson. The key is to keep Marsh in LF and play Rojas in CF often. It's just up to Wilson to deliver as the LF against LHP, and he seems up to it.

[LoneStarPhan]

I anticipate that the off season will bring a new outfielder to the fold, either via free agency or a trade.

[dcsman]

I hear Juan Soto is a free agent.

[andyb]

Will non-tendering Hays pay most of that?

[zambonir]

Mike Trout's ready to play LF

[Austinfan]

What's the over/under for games until he's out for the year?

[zambonir]

I certainly want nothing to do with that but might be slightly more plausible than Soto.

[David_Criss]

Hoping Walker does decent on Thursday to give him some confidence going into the off season. No way he makes the post season roster. Allard, Phillips, Johnson - no-one else wanted to be the fifth starter, so might as well l et the guy you are paying do it.

[zambonir]

I think he very well might make the post-season roster. Last year he was one of two candidates to be the fourth starter and once he didn't get the nod there was just no role for him, with Lorenzen taking the lowest-leverage relief spot. Had there been a blowout requiring bulk innings he might have appeared. Right now the 8th and 9th relievers are Gilbert and (technically) Allard; I would think Lazar and Walker get the nod over them on the playoff roster; if they carry one less pitcher that might only be for the NLDS and Walker still probably gets the nod over Lazar for that mop-up role (see also Kyle Gibson in 2022. He was worse than all of our current 5th starters that September, and that team needed wins to make the playoffs!)

[andyb]

Marte is still on the 7-day IL too. He has not pitched well lately, but I could see him getting a last week audition for a playoff roster spot. Most likely is they just skip the 5th starter though, especially if Hays not starting forces more Rojas starts (and thus pinch hit opportunities).

[zambonir]

You mean they skip the 9th reliever. I think for sure they will do that in the NLDS. But it's still a question of what you want out of that 8th pitcher. Lazar had a chance to carve out a bigger role for himself but didn't quite get there, especially with Ruiz having locked down the spot as the #6 (whereas last year Kerkering rose to that). So if you still only see that last pitcher as a source of junk innings or bulk innings you are probably going to reward the trusted veteran over the two up-and-down minor leaguers. That guy probably pitches no more than Lorenzen did last year or Gibson did in 2022 (also hard to believe that team gave Falter a playoff start - which they won!).

There's also an off-day between NLDS Game 4 and a possible Game 5 so relievers won't be hard to come by (plus your Game 2 starter would also be available if he absolutely had to be, facing elimination).