2024 MLB (Rule 4) Draft Discussion

[dicemen99]

Of course you want to do as well as you can in every facet. What I am saying is that our ownership AND our President/GM greatly minimize our mediocre draft record. Are you really saying that we have drafted and developed at the level our ML club is at over the past 15 years?

Of course if you whiff on everybody it's a problem, but that's not happening. Hasn't under Barber in the past, nor is it going to happen in this draft. It would be great to be the best in the draft process, but we're not and we can still get it done other ways. Ways that happen to cost a lot more money. Which we have.

[andyb]

My point is that it's about low percentages after the 1st rd, or in LA, after the one big bonus.

So? What are you advocating? Not caring about the draft? The actual point is that when you accumulate multiple low probability prospects you have a much higher probability of producing major leaguers. And if you have a farm director that can identify those with a 5%-10% chance rather than a 1%-2% chance that is hugely important.

The draft is important. You can't just rely on finding prospects on the scrap heap that you seem to advocate. Absolutely nobody is saying that draftees beyond the first round have a high probability of success. It is odd that you keep arguing that they don't because nobody disagrees with that. Where I and others disagree is on the overall importance of the draft which you constantly diminish.

[andyb]

Are you really saying that we have drafted and developed at the level our ML club is at over the past 15 years

We have been at least average in our drafting and international signings over the last decade. We are not where we are today if we were consistently terrible (and you yourself said something like that). The system rank is low because of trades, multiple forfeited draft picks, and lately low drafting positions.

Klentak and Almazar were mediocre at their job. Barber appears to be a bit better. And we are long past the days of not spending under Ed Wade and Ruben Amaro where we shifted money to the major league roster.

You are also right that spending money is a big part of where we are now (Harper, Nola, Wheeler, Turner, Realmuto, etc.). I have always advocated that as one of our advantages. But money is not unlimited and every time we hit on a young player it might save us a hundred million down the road and that is important too.

[dicemen99]

Yes, if the list was shorter we would be in a worse position - that is self-evident. It would also indicate a complete , complete failure of scouting and development - which may have happened in some (many) Phillies systems of the past, but obviously isn't happening now.

The track record of these guys is at least mediocre and seems to be pointing a bit up. That's not changing in the near term.

PTSD philly style - that's what all this worry about this draft is. @Austinfan is correct. Hit on 50% of your #1s, have a few others - not necessarily more than one each draft - with high ceilings turn into something with talent that your GM can turn into production - and we are fine. More, would be nice to have. Not necessary. We have shown the ability to buy ourselves out of mistakes under current management.

[dicemen99]

I think we are agreeing. All I'm saying is we shouldn't be expending nearly as much energy on the draft discussion as we do in the Phillies Regular Season or Trade Deadline or OffSeason discussions.

I get it that it is fun though. I'm just not going to sweat it because I'm confident we'll get a guy or two a year and then the Middleton and Dombrowski advantage will kick in.

[zambonir]

This has always been a board that loves the draft and the minor league system. And it's also the only thing happening in baseball right now besides an exhibition game. It's not a zero-sum game in any case.

Nor does anyone have to read or post in the threads that are about the draft if they don't think there's any point in talking about it. "It's not worth talking about" is an odd thing to contribute to a message board thread, kind of like when someone posts on a social media site to announce that they are not going to post anymore.

Personally I think politics is rarely worth talking about on the Internet. Rumor has it there's a thread about that here.

[zambonir]

I get it that it is fun though. I'm just not going to sweat it because I'm confident we'll get a guy or two a year and then the Middleton and Dombrowski advantage will kick in.

Would love for you to be right but everybody loses their fastball eventually. I'm sure Yankees fans have said that sort of thing often since 2009. Dodgers and Braves fans too.

[Austinfan]

Grad student is neither good or bad, how many HS players are marginal, then get drafted in the top 10 rounds after 3 years in college?'

Age seems to matter far more in ice hockey than baseball, probably because physical maturity has a bigger impact in that sport, whereas other than velocity and power, most baseball attributes are more innate or experience based (i.e. PA/IP) than age related.

We see this with LA players, some jump at 18, others, mostly pitchers, break out at 20-21.

[andyb]

In baseball it usually means there is just a tiny chance they are a prospect no matter how you spin it. Most players that are not good enough to get a decent bonus after their age 21 season are just not that good. You talk about tiny chances to make it, but I imagine the odds of 23-24 year olds are pretty astronomical.

[allentown]

But this kid is 5 months shy of age 24 on draft day.

[Squire]

You guys take Austinfan too seriously. He's never disagreed with a single decision of the Phillies front office ever. He's like Spadaro but without a W-2

[zambonir]

Grad student would usually=UDFA is all. Or meaningless pick in the 30s.

This does kind of seem like a draft where some recent trends, both in terms of the draft itself and now the NCAA, might be starting to affect their approach. Surely not the only team where that is true if so. The late pick/smaller pool for the second year in a row surely also affects their approach, even if the ways to mitigate that seem obvious.

[allentown]

Grad student is neither good or bad, how many HS players are marginal, then get drafted in the top 10 rounds after 3 years in college?'

Age seems to matter far more in ice hockey than baseball, probably because physical maturity has a bigger impact in that sport, whereas other than velocity and power, most baseball attributes are more innate or experience based (i.e. PA/IP) than age related.

We see this with LA players, some jump at 18, others, mostly pitchers, break out at 20-21.

This is confusingly contradictory. Age doesn't matter much in baseball. Pitchers break out at 20-21. You've said in the past that players peak, at I believe 26-28. The guy we drafted, if he is willing to interrupt his graduate studies to sign with the Phillies and give baseball a shot, will begin in earnest next minor league ST (probably after a brief appearance in this Fall's instructional league) at age 24. No reason to expect significant physical development at his age. Not a guy who's done anything to develop a baseball rep thus far, so he certainly has lots to learn as a pitcher -- starting at age 24. What makes him a reasonable pick? Maybe Mr. Winkelman will have dug out something positive for his Day 3 summary. I'm baffled.

[allentown]

You guys take Austinfan too seriously. He's never disagreed with a single decision of the Phillies front office ever. He's like Spadaro but without a W-2

I do take him more seriously than most. He blogged Phillies baseball years back and played with his own tweaks on statistical analysis of player. Sort of Winkelman before we had Winkelman and before Austinfan moved out of area and became less active in following Phillies draftees/minor leaguers. I forget what his blog was called, but I read it back in the day and had a lot of back-and-forth with him on this forum. Just as I followed CD's column in Phillies Report for years and had some pointed discussions back-and-forth on the relative quality of the Phillies farm and farmhands -- and sometimes politics. It adds some color to how I view their comments and causes me to give more weight and seriousness to what they write. Not at all saying they are the only posters I weight that way, but I know they are among the half dozen or so who have followed the farm most closely for more than a decade.

[andyb]

Which is why you draft an overslot player like Boyd or Hettiger who can be actual top 30 prospects.

[Austinfan]

So, how are they doing? Maybe there's a reason they were available?

[zambonir]

Well, what are we gonna talk about now?

With the Aug 1 signing deadline I don't imagine they'll bring anyone to Philly for press until the day before the Cleveland homestand, but presumably things will happen in Clearwater.

[phillychuck]

Honest question, who was the last college/highschool UDFA that made the majors with the Phillies, or made the majors, period, by coming through the minor league system of the team that signed him?

[Austinfan]

Hard to say, but before the last 4-5 years, UDFAs were after 40 rounds, now they're after 20, so a better question is how often did those picks from 21-30 make it (after rd 30, most picks were fliers on HS signees).

The most interesting is Keaton Anthony, who got caught up in a criminal investigation into gambling at Iowa and was never drafted, signed last summer. Hit his way to Reading this season.

[zambonir]

Larry Bowa?

Kidding, I think. Obviously this list goes too bar back to be useful.

The Top 15 MLB UNDRAFTED Free Agents of All Time — Humm Baby Baseball