2024-2025 Winter Ball - Arizona, Latin America, Australia, etc

[Austinfan]

Painter being all the way back this spring will lead to an interesting decision.
At 100%, with a stronger body than 2 years ago, will he even need a Lehigh stint?

Rincones will probably start in Lehigh, but if he takes off, I could see a platoon with Castellanos, since with that arm, he just needs average range to be clearly superior defensively.

And of course Crawford is another to watch.

Been a while since the Phillies had multiple top prospects on the verge of the majors.

Now if they could just figure out how to fix Abel!

[Deadgmwalking]

The question with Painter is how many innings he actually throws in '25. Assuming he's effective and hits 120 innings, will they use him in the playoffs (again, assuming) as a starter, in the pen or shut him down completely? He isn't a max effort guy, so I'd think velocity/mechanics over the course of a long season will determine a lot.

I hate to make the comparison, but Abel reminds me a lot of Gavin Floyd. Great stuff but trouble with control. At least Abel has a slider heavy 4 pitch mix. If Floyd didn't have his curve he was toast; change was fringe at best IIRC.

[zambonir]

The innings limit alone is reason enough to start him in AAA. He can be in a six-man rotation, he can pulled from games early, he can be put on the restricted list a few times. Keep him at 50 or even as few as 40 innings whereas if he goes right in the major league rotation he could hit 80 or even 100 by the All-Star Break.

He probably ends up in the October bullpen regardless but that could depend as much on the status of the rest of the rotation (and who else is in it besides the obvious).

[BaseballCat]

Maybe Painter can be a great opener? 1-2 innings and done. Woul need someone to pair him with. Just a thought. May or may not be a good one

[Matt_Winkelman]

Everything the Phillies have said would indicate that they are probably going to start Painter late in the spring (he is also pitching late this year) and then have him do a "normal" spring training and then he probably goes up to the majors. I would expect he pitches in the minors, including some at AAA, but they will likely be closer to Spring Training starts so he is fully stretched out when he reaches the majors rather than giving him work in AAA to improve. I expect him to pitch 75% of his innings in the majors next year at minimum.

[andyb]

Rincones will probably start in Lehigh, but if he takes off, I could see a platoon with Castellanos, since with that arm, he just needs average range to be clearly superior defensively.

Castellanos is not going to be platooned. Whether they shift him towards LF defensively is more of a question. He has not been platooned yet with the Phillies and is unlikely to do so in the future especially if we don't switch managers.

The Phillies DO though have an open left-handed platoon spot at the moment whereever Marsh is not playing. It is very possible that a lineup with Marsh in CF will be deemed better than a lineup with Rojas in CF against right-handed pitching. That is where Rincones might play, though obviously the Phillies are looking for alternatives this offseason for that platoon role if they don't think Hays can hit right-handed pitching well enough. Rincones is not ready now and even in Arizona he is showing he might need all of 2025 in AAA anyway.

[allentown]

The innings limit alone is reason enough to start him in AAA.

I take the opposite approach. If he has only 80 IP in him in 2025, let them be in MLB and none wasted in AAA. More to the point, I don't want him starting games in a cold Allentown in April. They are usually night games and can be ridiculously cold. I wouldn't pitch him in Reading/Philly/Allentown until some time in May. Keep him in FL and let a couple of cheap FA signings with an early May release guarantee in MLB duke it out to be the guy who starts the season in Philly.

[Austinfan]

I think they'll monitor him, and be careful, but I don't think there will be a innings limitation.

You're right about starting in Florida, come up in May when there's a real 5 man rotation, and get every gap day off (i.e. try to give him an extra day or skip a start). Probably start with a 80 pitch limit and take it from there.

He's not a max effort thrower, so if he seems to have no issues, I can see them gradually working him into a bigger role.

[bkox]

but I don't think there will be a innings limitation.

Every article has said there will be an innings limit

“We’re going to have to figure out how we get him to pitch next year,” Dombrowski said. “Because he’ll still be limited with the number of innings he can pitch. I don’t know the exact number of innings at this point. We haven’t discussed that, but he’s not going to be able to go out there like a big league starter and pitch every five or six days and pitch a whole season and have 180 innings. He’s going to be limited, much more than that.

https://www.mlb.com/news/andrew-painter-pitching-in-afl-with-eyes-on-2025-phillies-roster

[zambonir]

I take the opposite approach. If he has only 80 IP in him in 2025, let them be in MLB and none wasted in AAA.

I don't disagree, but he has 120, maybe even 150 (if he excels) innings in him, not 80. So he can spare 40-50 in AAA (that would be closer to 1/3 than the 1/4 Matt suggests, if they can do the latter, great).

Otherwise, he's Stephen Strasburg (and a lot sooner than September).

Keep him in FL and let a couple of cheap FA signings with an early May release guarantee in MLB duke it out to be the guy who starts the season in Philly.

This certainly makes sense too but I'm not sure the cold weather is really a big enough issue to essentially shut the kid down for an extra four weeks (or not let him face good enough hitters).

It will sort itself out. And, let's face it, odds are Taijuan Walker is the still guy who fills the 5th spot, not another Turnbull or Allard. It will be interesting to see just who they bring in on those type of deals, but also still not impossible they sign or trade for a bigger pitcher. And Painter could just as easily wind up making his debut when one of the current Top 4 goes on the IL

[Austinfan]

" I don’t know the exact number of innings at this point. We haven’t discussed that, but he’s not going to be able to go out there like a big league starter and pitch every five or six days and pitch a whole season and have 180 innings."

They'll take it easy, but they monitor mechanics, velocity, spin rate, etc. So I don't think it'll be based on innings, rather, whenever they see data that says fatigue is setting in, they'll give him extra rest. In that case, how he physical responds to his workload will determine how many innings/pitches he throws.

One factor that may up his innings is he's a control pitcher with 4 pitches, so he may not rack up deep pitch counts very often.

[andyb]

More notes from Steve Potter. I have not listened to that Mattingly podcast but apparently he thinks Aroon Escobar is his big sleeper for next year. Griffin Burkholder is back and healthy in high performance camp too, though a strange comment has him taking ground balls (he is an outfielder). Both players are on track for full season ball in Clearwater next Spring.

11/1/24 : News and Notes

[bkox]

Even on an off day for him, Andrew Painter still did not allow a hit during his 5th Fall League start.

The bonus for the #Phillies ? Complementary efforts by Christian McGowan and Otto Kemp: https://t.co/KY5iHqFCsN pic.twitter.com/ImxwzXz2UE

— MLB Pipeline ( @MLBPipeline ) November 6, 2024

[kmc1019]

Baseball America on Painter's outing yesterday:

Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies: The Phillies’ top prospect made his fifth appearance in the Arizona Fall League on Tuesday and pitched a gem. Painter tossed three hitless, scoreless innings, facing the minimum number of batters and retiring the final eight he faced. Painter was up to 99 mph on his fastball, mixing in his low-80s curveball and upper-80s slider as his primary secondary weapons. It’s been a strong return to action for Painter in AFL play. Painter has now thrown 10 consecutive scoreless innings.

[Austinfan]

And he's not even throwing his changeup.
The AFL is a hitters' league, this kind of dominance suggests he'll never see Lehigh.

it's also nice to see McGowan bouncing back from TJ. Strengthen that Lehigh rotation.

Kemp will probably start the season in AAA ball after a strong showing.
They could have an all AAA plus starting lineup!
Seriously, Kemp just has to keep improving, not asking him to be a starter, just an upgrade on the bench.
Has played 1B, 2B, 3B and OF, similar to Kroon but 3 years younger and hopefully more durable.

[fish]

Wen-Hui Pan, is going in for TJ. That stinks.

[andyb]

More notes from Steve Potter.

11/10/24 : Winter League Notes

Biggest news here is Johan Rojas is getting ready for a stint in the Dominican League. Also, the Premier 12 tournament has started. US lost 1-0 to Puerto Rico (in Tepic, Mexico). Crawford 1-4. Apparently he had a 3B and HR in the warm up exhibition games. Rich Hill anchoring the pitching staff from his retirement home. Old friends Dylan Covey and Anthony Gose also on the staff. TV is on DAZN though there is some video button on the schedule page. Not sure if that is live streaming or just highlights.

https://www.wbsc.org/en/events/2024-premier12/home

11/7/24 : Premiere 12 Tournament

[andyb]

Mixed outing for Painter yesterday. 2.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K. Pitch count of 53 though assuming the 3rd inning was enough to end his outing.

[allentown]

Not so bad. As long as his arm feels ok after.53 pitchers puts him farther along his path back to being a SP than I expected.

[Austinfan]

Still got 6 of 8 outs on Ks.
Suggests his stuff was fine, his command was shaky.
Not unexpected at this point in his rehab.