2024-2025 Winter Ball - Arizona, Latin America, Australia, etc

[andyb]

You just don't "know" any of that though. We have an example of Painter needing surgery and we know he throws hard. We just have no idea of knowing whether he puts more or less stress on his arm than other pitchers. Yes we want him to be like Wheeler. We just don't "know" he will be like that. You are just speculating based on no evidence.

That being said, it is not the worst thing for Painter to pitch 14-15 months after surgery. That is par for the course. But 20 innings this season and 100 next season is also par for the course and there is no indication the Phillies are planning more than that. All the quotes in the articles point to innings limits next year and probably a slow start keeping him in Clearwater in extended. There is just no indication the Phillies plan to pitch Painter more than the typical recovery arc.

Now I could see that in the playoffs next year, but that would be after a regular season planned to hit whatever inning limit they have in mind (which is probably around 100 for someone his age). Heck he only hit 103.2 IP when healthy. Are you really going to go beyond that in his recovery year?

[andyb]

First Glendale game in Arizona yesterday. Rincones 1-4 with a 2B and RBI. Kemp and Rincon 0-1.

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/javelinas-vs-desert-dogs/2024/10/08/787635/final/box

No Painter yet on the roster though there is considerable turnover usually.
https://www.mlb.com/arizona-fall-league/roster/glendale

[andyb]

McGarry starting tonight (8:30 ET). Painter tomorrow (5:30 ET). Games on MLB.com and I assume the MLB.TV app.

[Austinfan]

Phillies' top pitching prospect makes long-awaited return to game action

"Painter's first pitch was 98 mph and he hit 100 multiple times in the opening frame"

[gmwannabe]

**how did McGarry do?

[dicemen99]

**how did McGarry do?

2 IP, no hits, 2 BBs, no runs, no Ks

[zambonir]

On the hitters Painter faced was Jeff McNeil. Didn't realize you could send a rehabbing player to AFL.

[andyb]

BA Article.

Phillies Prospect Andrew Painter Touches 100 MPH In Return From Tommy John...

Seems a mixed outing with good velocity and not much command. Good first step though. Think of these as 20 innings that he might not need in the minors next year.

[dcsman]

Another article: https://www-nbcsportsphiladelphia-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nbcsportsphiladelphia.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/phillies-news/andrew-painter-arizona-fall-league-phillies-prospect/622928/?amp=1&amp_js_v=0.1&amp_gsa=1#webview=1

Good first steps.

[bkeich]

Is Painter a lock for the starting rotation out of spring training or do they have him start in AAA.

I assume he will be HIGHLY limited in innings, maybe 100-120? If he is healthy in March / April it might be a near lock that he won’t be available in September / October. You never know abut injuries, but is it crazy to hope he gets a hang nail that costs him 2 months so that he is around at the end of the season. Not sure any team has ever tried that.

Are Tandem Starts with Sanchez or Suarez even something Thomson would consider. It seems a little “new age” for him.

[zambonir]

Well first he has to beat out Walker.

I think he will probably start in AAA where he will only pitch once a week and on an innings limit. Maybe a little time off too. Then up by July.

[bkox]

Well first he has to beat out Walker.

I think he could have beat out walker with the torn ligament.

[bkeich]

Well first he has to beat out Walker.

I think he could have beat out walker with the torn ligament.

I think I can still throw about 60. Do you where they are holding the tryouts to compete against Walker?

[zambonir]

I figured no emoji was necessary to suggest a joke there.

What we really don't know is

A) Might they trade Ranger

B) Might they be in the market for another starter (seems implausible but they were in on Crochet and Yamamoto, so not impossible).

I don't think Rob is too stodgy to tandem, but there's really no reason to. Sanchez is better than that and we hope Ranger is too. If anything a six-man might make sense at some point. Only reason they didn't do that this year is because #5 and #6 were both awful.

As a lover of a longshot bets I would definitely take an over/under on Walker making 10 starts for the Phillies next year, so long as he's not traded.

[bkeich]

Yea, both Sanchez and Ranger are good enough, but Ranger really is a 5 inning guy, maybe 6 on a really good outing. I am thinking Painter will be best for 3-4. What I like about Tandem is it will give your bullpen a possible rest day.

A 6 man rotation isn’t terrible, but we know Wheeler will be upset. Nola might be too. As both are now in their 30s it might be better, but they might object.

Sanchez is another case that might be better off being limited somewhat in innings. I included him in my tandem “thought” just as really a way to reduce his innings. Maybe you bounce between Sanchez and Suarez of who has a partner (although doing it lefty / righty seems important).

Painter is a good problem to have obviously, but it is still a problem that probably requires a non-traditional solution. Thomson seems more traditional, despite his non-closer bullpen ideas, which are certainly progressive.

[bkeich]

As a lover of a longshot bets I would definitely take an over/under on Walker making 10 starts for the Phillies next year, so long as he's not traded.

Ahh, you know my opinion of Walker. Maybe he shows up having re-found his pitching, but I doubt it (hope I am wrong). He might make 10 starts, he did this year, and was the worst pitcher we have had in 94 years (an impressive statement).

Walker being traded is really hard to imagine. We would have to take on a really, really bad contract to pull that off I suspect.

I don’t consider him in any way as part of the Starter plan until proven otherwise. Maybe he can be a bullpen arm, but he is a long way away from that at the moment in my opinion. The Phillies management opinion is probably very different.

[zambonir]

I just think pitchers have bad years all the time. Especially when injured. He is 32 years old, the same age Charlie Morton was when he pitched for the Phillies eight seasons ago. That would be the extreme best-case scenario. His career being over would be the worst-case (and has happened to much better pitchers than him, including our own Halladay and Lee). There's a ton of middle ground, from him simply returning to being a capable mid-rotation starter (even if mid-rotation is more like a #5 on a team as good as the Phillies) to being fungible depth (a la Kyle Gibson or what Turnbull was supposed to be and ultimately was). He could also reinvent himself in the pen (a la Matt Moore).

Teams are desperate for pitching, if he can show up to Clearwater looking like a different guy other teams will be interested even if the return is minimal and the Phillies pick up $.

[andyb]

Various notes here. Venezuela, Mexico, and today the Dominican have all started. Unclear which Phillies will actually play. Big 2 HR day for Otto Kemp in Arizona. Crawford's international tournament is not until next month. Meanwhile, another performance camp starts in Clearwater later this week.

10/16/24 : Winter League Notes

[Austinfan]

Morton broke his leg if I remember, there was nothing wrong with his arm.

[zambonir]

It was a hamstring, but doesn't matter. Morton wasn't anywhere near as good a pitcher back then as Walker was until this year, and had other injuries during his time in Pittsburgh.