2023 Phils Spring Training News and Discussion

[andyb]

They had Hall, added Cave and Clemons, how many LH bats are they going to carry?

None of them project to being close to average bats. Quality and not quantity is the point of the article.

[Austinfan]

Hall projects above average in a LH platoon.
And a quality LH bat wouldn't make sense given the cost with Harper back the second half.

the proposed solutions:

Drury RH - unless we're benching Castallenos (who looks better, see what Long can do) ???
note that RC+ 123 may be a fluke, other full seasons, 102, 92, 66

Myers - RH 1B/OF who at 32 isn't a great bet: 107, 107, 97, 155 (218 PA), 110, 104

Mancini - RH 1B/OF 93, 132, 105, 104

Martinez - RH DH 36, 127, 119

Profar - Switch, 2B/OF 107, 90, 113, 86, 110

Only Martinez had a chance to replace Harper's bat, and he's a RH DH. Which means he's got no spot when Harper returns. I think Dombrowski looked at these options and figured Walker, Soto and Kimbrel would help far more on the margin.

[andyb]

Hall projects above average in a LH platoon

That is not what the article says:

The closest thing the Phillies have to a viable offensive option is Darick Hall, who showed power in his brief 2023 stint, but also poor plate discipline and a meager contact rate. ZiPS is easily the most optimistic of the FanGraphs projection systems here and even it only pegs Hall for a .225/.299/.434 line and a 103 wRC+, rather below average for a starting DH. Nor does it seem like the Phillies are content (at least not yet) to just plug him into the position for three months, which may be the least damaging in-house solution.

Hall was better last year in a small sample where much of his power came against bad teams (and position players pitching). All those solutions are actually a little bit better than Hall. I am not saying that they should necessary have upgraded here because I think Harper is actually back sooner than anticipated, but that does not change the fact that Hall does not project that well even in a platoon role.

[zambonir]

I think it is fine that they opted for pitching, and for some flexible fielders that can allow them to rotate other bats at DH.

The premise of the article basically requires you to buy into the ZIPs projections, which is fair enough. That has the Phillies as an 85-win team and a 47.2% playoff probable with 75 games played from Harper. If that's really an accurate projection I think they have bigger problems than trying to get 1 more win over a half-season from a better replacement player.

[andyb]

Management likely sees us as more of an 88-win team with Turner, though the aggressiveness with Painter and some of the late signings like Harrison do seem like the moves of a team with a 50-50 playoff projection at this point.

I hope Hall or Cave or Clemens can put up a 750 OPS in limited action as that extra LH bat when Harper is out. I do think we are covered well against left-handed pitching since our right-handed depth with Sosa especially is deeper (though we will need Stott and/or Marsh to hit better against lefties). One can hope Hall or Cave is good enough while acknowledging that they are more likely to put up a 700 OPS without helping much on defense. This is why I am hoping Harper is back in June rather than July.

Behind the firewall, but BP is more optimistic at 89.5 wins. That is a level where you decide a 3-month DH fix is probably not worth it (what the Phillies have done).

Season Preview: Philadelphia Phillies - Baseball Prospectus

[Austinfan]

They also have a number of RH hitters starting the season in Lehigh, Rojas, Ortiz and De La Cruz.
If one of them emerges, they can push Castallenos to DH, so another reason to avoid paying for a RH DH.

I'm sure Long also played a role in their decision, his evaluation of Sosa, Hall, Guthrie, Clemons, Cave and the young OFs and their potential to step up.

Outside of Martinez, the players suggested by FG are likely to put up a RC+ barely above 100 - not worth paying for if you think players on your roster have collectively the same upside.

[andyb]

The issue with the Fangraphs alternatives is mainly that they are right-handed other than Profar. They are all better than Hall though. Fangraphs really should have suggested left-handed alternatives to Hall that are better than Cave. I am sure there are some out there especially if you consider more defensive specialists that could have pushed Schwarber to DH. I agree that our right-handed alternatives are better especially with Harrison on board.

David Peralta? Robbie Grossman? Old friend Corey Dickerson? There were some options out there better than Cave. None of this is hugely important because it is hard to justify spending real money here (like for a Joey Gallo), but Fangraphs is not wrong in that they chose not to address this and that it could be important. And we can't just count on Long to fix things. He seems to be a decent hitting coach but he is not going to automatically fix and improve every single player he coaches. Talent matters more.

[fish]

So at this point there has to be some in-fighting in the organization about how the "Painter thing" is being handled, right? Team personnel cheesed with Boras interjection? Boras upset with the team? What camp would Boras be in - being super protective or wanting his guy pitching in the big leagues as soon as he was ready to?

[andyb]

I am guessing Boras wants to be super protective here. Just too many things that have historically gone wrong with young pitchers. I am sure he would love to start his free agent clock so he could be on the market at age 26, but delaying things a year and keeping his pitcher safe is probably good long term business.

[zambonir]

Wasn't it Boras, not the Nationals, who restricted Strasburg's availability as a rookie?

Talk of the Phillies win totals makes me wonder what the actual gambling over/under is. Also I'm pretty sure the team has publicly stated that their expectations are based on Thomson's winning percentage, not last season's win total. That may be shooting high (nothing wrong with that) but I wonder what their internal analytics actually say.

[Squire]

Soto lives

https://twitter.com/Phillies/status/1633566142638817280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1633566142638817280%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

[BostonRoss]

We can be sure that Scott Boras is acting in the best interest of Scott Boras. That means maximizing Painter's lifetime earnings. Of course, this is mostly consistent with Painter's interests, too, but not necessarily 100%. Painter might want to contribute now and be less worried about the more distant future. But he did hire Boras.

[zambonir]

I mean, it could go either way. He doesn't want the Phillies to break his client before he reaches his maximum earning potential, but he also wants to start his service clock to get to that peak more quickly. And it certainly wouldn't do the Phillies any good if Painter spent two of his pre-arbitration years injured (even if it would do them a lot of good if he could pitch this year and be Rookie of the Year with a couple of big post-season wins).

Anyway the Phillies have a pretty good relationship with Boras these days. He isn't even pressuring them to extend Hoskins (in part because he'd rather go open-market himself of course).

My recollection of Strasburg is that the Nats and Boras were mostly on the same page, at least in the long run, but there was talk of him forbidding the team from pitching at a certain innings limit, playoffs or not?

[julio]

We can be sure that Scott Boras is acting in the best interest of Scott Boras.

I don't think this is really quite right. We really have no evidence that Boras doesn't listen to his clients' needs and wishes. I mean, yeah, obviously, he'd like to maximize his own return — but part of doing that is making sure that his clients are happy with him. This is how he's able to attract additional clients.

People get bent about Scott Boras, for the simple reason that Boras is very good at what he does. He maximizes benefits for his clients.

Yes, Boras sometimes treats baseball — the business, not the game — with less respect (or perhaps less reverence) that some would like. There's a reason for that. Organized baseball is a cartel that exploits young men, making large amounts of money that most of those young men will never see. Boras doesn't respect the draft, because he sees the draft as something MLB created to hold down salaries (which it was; it was never about competitive balance). Boras is an educated attorney and ex-player; he gives the industry the respect it deserves.

[DurhamBull]

I didn’t realize that Boras was a former player. That’s interesting, and it makes sense. I read the Wikipedia article on him, and also learned that his first client was none other than former Phillie Manny Trillo.

[fish]

More (speculation?) by Scott Lauber this morning of Boras involvement in the decision making. I guess the best I can make of it is that Boras came into the season with strong reservations of having Painter start the season in the big leagues and decided that at the first sign of injury he was going to put a stop to it all. His point isn't wrong about the flame out of great pitchers who break in at a young age by the time they are 30, but if you look at (Just about) all the great pitchers of the last 20 years, you get 7-9 years of great seasons from them. If that break through happens after they are 25, then you get great season into their 30s. If it starts in their early 20s, then it's over by the time they are 30. Some guys like Schilling and Verlander have their windows of greatness spread out because of injury, and maybe that gave them a few more elite level seasons.

What nobody knows now is how great pitchers will hold up throwing hard, but never having to pitch more than 200 innings ...unless they have playoff seasons.

[BostonRoss]

Maybe I shouldn't have used the word "sure," but I think there's enough evidence that I believe what I said.

I am sure that Boras listens to his clients' needs and wishes, and he does not go against the,. But these wishes may not be completely thought out, and it seems likely that someone with his experience has a lot of influence with the young people he represents. Some of them, especially veterans, have been around long enough to know what they want. Apparently, when Jason Varitek became a free agent, his instructions to Boras were to sign with the Red Sox, but get the most money he could. That is what happened. I also think Bryce Harper got what he wanted.

On the other hand, we have cases like A-Rod. It was surprising when he signed with Texas, and he ended up being unhappy there. It is possible that A-Rod simply changed his mind after he signed, but it is more believable to me that Boras told him that he could get a lot more money from the Rangers and that he was better off taking that then a bit less to play somewhere he preferred. When A-Rod basically forced a trade, the original negotiations with the Red Sox involved him reducing his salary, which the players' union would not allow.

I don't believe Boras goes against his players' wishes, but I don't think he necessarily tries to find out what would make them happiest. Sure, for some players that means getting every last dollar. But for others, that may not be the cases, and they (especially younger players) can be easily influenced by someone of Boras's stature.

Of course, Boras has his players' interests in mind more than their employers do, and that can be helpful to the players. But that both that and what I think can be true.

[zambonir]

I'm just impressed the Phillies haven't allowed this to turn into a public drama (at least not yet).

Boras makes mistakes. And he sometimes puts his beliefs, or his vision of the greater good for his clients and all players, ahead of what might be best for a single player. But so do other agents, and the MLBPA. His ego/self-branding has probably done more good than harm for his clients, even if it can still do harm. But it's also the reason why we know his name and might not immediately be able to name Aaron Nola or Manny Machado's agent (I can do the latter but only because there was so much press that free agent summer with Harper). Overall, he obviously serves his clients. Some leave him. Many go to him.

[andyb]

Harper back in camp. This story uses Ohtani's experience with TJ surgery and DHing to project a June 29 return. A good chance he does not play the field this year though.

Phillies' Harper unsure on return to right field

[zambonir]

Gotta wonder if he'll ever play RF again (or at least, if he should). Clearly the Phillies' best move post-Hoskins would be a decent hitting, good-fielding corner OF, unless Rojas and Marsh are both good enough to be 2/3 of an OF. If Harper's not 1B/DH they got two-three others guys for that same spot possibly.