2023 Phils Spring Training News and Discussion

[Austinfan]

Well, he should have a great season in 2025!

[nycphils]

A couple of thoughts on the Painter elbow beyond the awfulness if it is TJ related:

1. Probably rules him out of the opening day roster even if not serious - they will (rightfully) want to be cautious and give him some time to rest it and get the swelling out and so it makes more sense not to rush him and let him start at AAA and give Falter at least a few starts
2. If they “tests” they sent him for include an MRI, the fact that the Phils are quick to go with an MRI is an improvement over SOP a number of years ago when they would wait a long time before resorting to an MRI and injuries were more likely to become more acute or at least not be properly treated as a result

[fish]

I’m starting to think if it wasn’t anything serious it wouldn’t take 24 hours to interpret and report test results.

Ugh, now I see results aren’t going to be reported until Sunday or Monday. Definitely not good.

[Austinfan]

One good news, watching Marte, he looks like a legitimate candidate for the back of the pen, and maybe an upgrade over Nelson. If Painter is out, we could use more BP depth.

[zambonir]

yes you and NYCPhils are essentially saying the same thing, unfortunately. They probably did an MRI and have someone (or multiple someones) in mind to read it. Then again, if it was an obvious injury/tear it might not be hard to read.

[Aquapong]

They probably wouldn’t announce anything until they had a plan. On the flip side, Nola had elbow soreness a few years back in ST and we thought he was headed for TJ. Iirc, platelet rich plasma injections got him through. Whether he makes the team or not, I just don’t want to see him hurt and miss serious amounts of development time.

[zambonir]

Yes we tend to only remember the worst examples. Though we also remember Nola. Heck, as of right now there is no reason to think he is any worse shape than Wheeler was last year. But also understandable to fear the worst.

[Austinfan]

The good news is they're being proactive and careful.
In the past . . .

[fish]

Seemed like the first 3 years of Hamels in big league camp he had a stiff elbow or shoulder or something he had to work through.

But the way they are discussing these “tests” is odd, unless the elbow specialists are at a convention in Bali.

[zambonir]

This is the same team that just hid Rhys Hoskins' knee surgery for two months. They are just being cagey and careful.

Still not sure our perception that the team was too slow to do MRIs or too lax about letting guys play through injuries is actually true. That they may or may not being dealing with this aggressively is very specific to Painter I think - his age, his status, the fact that they were hoping he could make the team.

[Austinfan]

If they were counting on Painter for anything this year (same with Abel) then Dombrowski is a fool.
But he's not, which is why he signed Walker, traded for Soto, signed Kimbrel, etc.
If a young pitcher surprises, hurrah, but you never count on someone who hasn't shown he can pitch 150+ inning at the ML level.

[zambonir]

All of those pitchers were necessary with Painter in the rotation. Dombrowski clearly thought he could be Rick Porcello 2.0 (and still can, who knows). Without him, Falter and the rest of the #6s get a shot, but if one of them doesn't pan out and Painter is actually hurt they will need a deadline addition for the stretch run (if not the playoffs where a 5th starter isn't as important).

[Austinfan]

Not necessarily. He's got candidates for the 5th spot to start the season, Falter/Sanchez/Plassmeyer that allows Abel, McGarry, time to work on their game in AAA. Unfortunately, the only probable candidate at Reading will be McArthur, and he's a long shot.

So come the All Star break Dombrowski will know what he has in the system and can then deal for someone for the stretch run if needed, but as Falter showed last year, sometimes what you have is better than what you can find - especially if Walker fills #4 and the bullpen goes 9-10 deep (with option pitchers) - you're just filling 5 innings once a week or so.

[andyb]

Not necessarily. He's got candidates for the 5th spot to start the season, Falter/Sanchez/Plassmeyer that allows Abel, McGarry, time to work on their game in AAA. Unfortunately, the only probable candidate at Reading will be McArthur, and he's a long shot.

None of those 5th starter candidates are that good though. Painter could be very good now. Why not allow for that possibility? That is all DD was doing. No harm in that.

The most dangerous time for any pitcher is ramping up in Spring Training. There is no evidence the Phillies did Painter any harm here. If he was going to get hurt throwing 29 pitches he was going to get hurt at some point. Hopefully it is nothing more than Spring soreness. If they shut him down for a few weeks to get healthy and be cautious the optimist in me thinks we could still get 5 months of Painter on the big club and eek out another year of service pre-free agency.

[Austinfan]

My point is you don't depend on Painter or Abel, if they emerge, great, but you should be conservative with young pitchers.
We're talking the fifth starter, anyone who can put up a 4.50 ERA/FIP is a find for that spot - and Falter did so last season.
Probably need to find 40 or so starts, given the inevitable couple weeks off for Wheeler or Nola.
First half of the season, with rainouts, etc. probably can get by with 5 SPs, but by July or August will need a 6th and BP guys you can rotate between Philly and LV for bullpen games.

Last season
Gibson 31 starts, 167 IP 5.05/4.28
Falter 16 starts, 84 IP, 3.86/4.65
Eflin 13 starts, 75 IP 4.04/3.56
Syndergaard 9 starts, 54 IP 4.12/3.66
Sanchez/bullpen 6 starts

Walker should replace 30 of these starts, hopefully, a notch above Gibson.

[Aquapong]

A steady 5th starter can be a luxury. Not really a guy we need in the playoffs but we could need one to get there.

[allentown]

The problem is that injuries happen. Even minor short-term injuries make the #5 starter have to become the #4 or even #3 starter. It is the rare team which can go through a season with only 6 starters. The Phillies were expecting Painter to add to the rotation. If he can't, that's a ding on this season. If he needs Tj, that's also a knock on next season,and worst case a derailment of Phillies future for the next 7 seasons. Let's hope it is just minor start of ST soreness and Painter can have the season we all hoped for.

[andyb]

Nobody is depending on Painter or Abel. Every team lines up 7 or 8 starters. What is wrong with letting the best starter win the job? You created another one of your lists in your post. It seems a list of mediocre starters other than Eflin (and note that those starts especially with Falter and Thor were strategically placed against mostly poor teams with lots of rest).

So your point is we should let inferior starters win jobs? It makes more sense if you are trying to game Painter's service time. Every pitcher is different. Painter can probably win now if healthy. Let's hope he is and we see that possibility.

[Austinfan]

My point is ideally you want Painter, Able and McGarry to start in the minors, with no pressure, lots of hands on instruction, while Falter/Plassmeyer/Sanchez fight it out for #5 to start the season. Then you see how the kids are progressing, and bring them up when you deemed them ready.

I think Marty Bystrom scarred me permanently.

[allentown]

At least prior to the sore elbow, the Phillies words and actions suggests they deemed Painter to be ready.