2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[bkeich]

Well, we are currently losing a 1B a week, so if that rate keeps up I can imagine anyone with some power getting a chance. Clemens as a 1B is a slight stretch, but after him it gets pretty thin. Our next 1B is probably an open spot at the moment if someone wants to try and grab it. If I were Ortiz I would be begging for some innings at 1B right now, OF is kinda crowded.

[zambonir]

I think the DH spot is actually a bigger problem. I reckon we're gonna see Bohm at 1B and Sosa at 3B the majority of the time until Hall comes back, but that also puts a weak bat into LF or RF until then. Fortunately Harper will be back around the same time if not sooner.

I know Pache is already the least popular player on the Phillies but if Cave isn't hitting either you might get more net production out of Pache in CF and Marsh in LF against LHP. With Sosa at 3B you'd actually have five good defenders out of 9, not something we're used to.

The roster was supposedly designed to let Marsh play every day and then they seemed to lose confidence in that and of course they were also ready to let Hall be the primary 1B and now they just don't have one. But the current version of Jhailyn Ortiz at 1B wouldn't be better than Cave or Clemens. Possibly not even in AAA.

[BostonRoss]

With Sosa in the lineup, I count five of nine even with Schwarber and Castellanos playing in the OF and a bad fielding pitcher (3B, SS, 2B, CF, C). Your lineup has six or seven!

[Austinfan]

Watching Bohm, I think he has the potential to be a plus fielding 1B.
The fielding part is the same as 3B (easier throws), he just looks more fluid catching tough throws than Hoskins ever did.
There are very few plus fielding 1B, so if he can develop there he doesn't have to hit as well as if he was a liability.

[zambonir]

Haha yeah good point. I'm not sure Marsh, Turner and Stott are actually elite defenders for their positions (Marsh graded out far better in LF than CF which is also why it wouldn't be crazy to put him there. And Stott was quite good at 2B of course). Either way they are certainly a lot better than last year's Opening Day options, and above average.

They need Cave - or someone else - to come around at the plate way more than they need to give Pache more playing time, or they need to try someone else. But if you have to make a choice between two .150 hitters...

Meanwhile, if Sosa is actually a hitter that pretty much settles things in the infield (and they may yet try him again in the OF if Bohm still plays 3B).

[Austinfan]

IF Sosa is a hitter, then the Phillies can focus on catcher and OF.
Sosa - Turner - Stott - Bohm could stay together for an extended period.
Question is which young OFs will step up, Marsh, Pache, Rojas, Muzzioti, Crawford, Boyd, Ricones, Wilson, and when?
Harper being able to play RF next year would help buy time.

[allentown]

IF Sosa is a hitter, then the Phillies can focus on catcher and OF.

I don't understand why they have to focus on catcher. How far in future are you talking?

[zambonir]

I'd say he's looking pretty far in the future given the list of names above! But right now if Sosa is a hitter that solves a two-month problem, not a next year or two-years-from-now problem.

Thomson did say today that this is the new infield for now.

[Austinfan]

It may solve a problem for years to come, Hoskins isn't returning at 1B, not sure Castellanos can hit or field well enough for 1B, same with Schwarber. Is Harper moving to 1B?

But if Sosa can put up OPS > .750 and Bohm > .800, the current IF could stay together for a few years.

Realmuto has two years left on his deal, do you extend him at 35?

[zambonir]

Realmuto has two years left on his deal, do you extend him at 35?

Two years after this year. I think there is a pretty good chance you extend him, though at that point he'd be an 80-game catcher. Phillies extended Chooch at 35, which was perhaps ill-advised given the state of the team at that point but he didn't do badly. He had a great first season, a terrible second season and good third one (1.6 WAR in just 48 games before being traded). At the plate he was average or worse. JT will probably still be hitting more but maybe not well enough to also get DH/1B time?

A long way to go before you can lock Sosa and Bohm in like that but put it in the category of good problem to have. You could also trade either one of them if you'd rather open up 1B. Because you are probably also hoping Marsh is good enough to to be pushed into a corner OF spot by Rojas and/or Muzziotti.

[VoteForKalas]

Perhaps Austinfan is thinking the Phillies should consider shifting Realmuto to 1B to avoid the wear & tear of catching and possibly extend his career with the Phillies.

[Austinfan]

Not sure he'd hit good enough to handle 1B at 35, though he could probably be a plus fielder there. Good enough athlete, though catching really doesn't prepare you for 1B, 3B is better training in terms of the fielding part.

[zambonir]

I certainly didn't read it that way because in AF's scenario you've still got your > .800 OPS Alec Bohm playing 1B in 2025 and 2026. And a JT on the open market after 2025 will still be getting paid more as a catcher, even if the ability to put him elsewhere will be part of his appeal/utility.

[bkeich]

I would actually try Realmuto in the OF or 3B before I pushed him to 1B. He is an excellent athlete and has good speed, he would probably be a pretty good corner OF when he doesn't catch.

We already have way too many guys ahead of him for the first base mitt arhat probably can't play defense as well as he can.

[andyb]

It is really pretty silly to speculate on Realmuto and what to do on his next contract. My gut is that he'll probably want to catch until he can't and he would be OK with being an 80 game catcher and 1B/DH the rest of the time if it came to that.

The one thing that can be certain is that the Phillies are not making any development decisions with other players while trying to imagine a spot for JT. If he is still good in 3 years they'll make sure there is a spot. This is just not part of the Phillies' plan right now.

I am just glad some numbers geek made sure the Phillies understood that Sosa against RHP might produce a better lineup than having Clemens in there 2/3 of the time.

[zambonir]

I'm not sure it took a numbers geek, just Sosa getting a little hot.

Maybe the numbers geek could suggest trying Clemens in LF?

[andyb]

The increase in defense by moving Bohm from 3B to 1B is the numbers geek argument. Not sure Clemens is that great defensively anywhere though I assume he is at least Bohm-quality at the corners.

[zambonir]

Ah, gotcha. But I think they already understood that about Sosa and defense. Now they also want to see how his bat plays every day. The ambition to get him starts has always been there, but the opportunities more slim (clearly they were never that comfortable with him in CF, SS barely ever an option and they don't want to sit Stott either).

I'm just saying Clemens can't be any worse than Cave at the plate, and Cave's not really special defensively either - just better than Schwarber.

[andyb]

'm just saying Clemens can't be any worse than Cave at the plate,

The data shows Cave has been better though obviously Clemens is still young enough to improve a bit. Cave has the better major league OPS (703 vs 503) though also the much larger sample AAA OPS (855 vs 802).

Clemens is starting tonight at 1B. Imagine he'll still get a couple of starts a week somewhere. Agree that Cave needs to hit, though my move in a month there might be Muzziotti more than Clemens if he doesn't.

[andyb]

Baby steps:

Andrew Painter picked up a baseball and played catch today for the first time since suffering a sprained elbow on March 1. Heard it went well; Phillies will move forward at slow pace.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) April 10, 2023