2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

For sure you still have to beat the bad teams (and it stinks when you lose to them) but you still have to go .500 against the others. I'm just not ready to say these three wins foreshadow long-term success (and a positive run differential) any more than their wins against Colorado or Cincinnati did (though you can also argue they should have won more of those)

[Austinfan]

With young, highly talented pitchers, it's often a "light goes on" thing, a tweak in mechanics or attitude, and suddenly they go a roll. Phillies need 8-10 starts, twice through the lineup, down the stretch run, not a miracle, out of a 5th starter.

If they've finally started hitting, that takes the pressure off the 5th starter, both less pressure to perform, but also it means the other 4 starters will go deeper into games since they can pace themselves with leads, like we saw last night. And that makes it easier to have bullpen games or 5th starter/early exit games.

[andyb]

But then why were you so against Andrew Painter even having a shot a making the team early?

I don't dispute that good pitchers with great stuff can move quickly. They have to pitch well though and these two prospects are experiencing typical AA growing pains. They just are not going to jump from AA any time soon. There was a MUCH MUCH better case for Painter and you opposed that.

[Callison]

The phrase "If they've finally started hitting..." is all over this team and its fans. This team is built to be an offensive powerhouse. The hitting last night looked like what has been expected every game since the season started.

You gotta hand it to Big Rob with that lineup shuffle. It would be traditional to continue to put Stott leadoff, etc., but that lineup has somehow made this team of hitting stars into the A's.

20 more games like this and the Phils will be where they belong.

Nice to see Nola remind of us his ability.

[Austinfan]

No. I opposed pushing Painter, and for exactly what happened, he overthrew b/c of those expectations.

I wanted him to start in the minors without pressure, have a good start, then get promoted without fanfare, and settle in without feeling he had to strike out 15 players a game.

Let him decide when he's ready by his play on the field.

[andyb]

No. I opposed pushing Painter, and for exactly what happened, he overthrew b/c of those expectations.

There is ZERO EVIDENCE that Painter overthrew because of expectations. Zero evidence that he even overthrew. He got hurt starting up in the Spring like lots and lots of pitchers. Probably would have happened if he was in minor league spring training as well. Three quarters of our upper level minor leaguers threw in major league spring training too.

You are just saying something that fits a narrative without any evidence to back that up. Painter also did show he was probably ready by what he did on the field (dominating 3 levels in the minors like Babe Ruth playing in a Babe Ruth league).

[zambonir]

Well, it's the people who are coaching and rehabbing Painter that are now saying he overthrew and put too much pressure on himself. And that they probably shouldn't have let him throw so many cutters when it was a new pitch for him.

But it was still the right goal to set for him, just like it was for Stott last year. In both cases they were probably going to spend time in AAA anyway. Just would have been nice if Painter had made five or six starts and then come up.

[andyb]

It is actually one guy (Kaplan) his sports performance trainer saying that. The Phillies aren't. And there is really no way to know what hurt him. Speculating that 2 99 mph pitches to Correa got him hurt is silly when he routinely touches and exceeds that speed in bullpen sessions and games last year.

The cutter speculation is probably more on point since that is something new to his throwing routine and may not have been needed as much. That seems part of the Phillies standard arsenal for high 90s pitchers (relievers and starters like McFarlane too). Maybe they need to rethink that strategy a bit.

Sometimes it is just bad luck that pitchers get hurt. And pitchers that throw 100 get hurt more often than pitchers that don't. Alvarado currently. Coonrod the last couple of years. It is kind of the price of throwing hard unfortunately. All pitchers need to start somewhere and it is really difficult to ramp up from scratch.

My issue with AF is that Abel and McGarry have not had close to the performance of Painter and he thinks they are part of the 5th starter solution. They might be. But they have a whole lot to prove. Saying Painter got hurt because he overthrew has about the same evidence that saying Kevin Long fixed Drew Ellis in the 2 days he coached him.

My concern with Painter was more the innings limit and not competing out of Spring Training. He was probably not going to throw more than 120-130 innings in the best case scenario so I might have started him more slowly. But he still probably would have gotten hurt whenever he ramped up.

[allentown]

And you don't neecessarily need to be an uber-prospect, with great stuff to make the jump from AA and have some success as an MLB starter, at least for a limited time, when the opposition doesn't have a ton of experience batting against you. i remember when necessity forced the Phillies to call up Kyle Kendrick from AA. Only 22, only about 80 IP beyond A-ball, a K-rate less than 6/9 IP. He did benefit from a BB-rate of 2, but was far from a wunderkind. He managed to go 10-4, with a decent ERA, only half a point above what he did at Reading. He didn't even K a rate of 4/9 IP. I think the key to his success was that batters swung at his pitches and he walked even fewer than he had at Reading. Between Reading and Philly, he pitched over 200 innings that season (2007), He had 74 winnings and a winning record in Philly.

[allentown]

Probably true, but throwing back-to-back 99s early in the Spring is not the same as doing the same well into the season. Nor is pitching when you know you are going to be spending the whole season in the minors the same as the pressure a young pitcher can put on himself when all the media, and even the team -- more or less, is saying a major league spot is practically his to lose. Add in the cutter and the risk was there. We know that he was injured in ST and Abel wasn't. Abel was given no real hope of making the team and wasn't under as much pressure, although the prospect of Painter sprinting past him to the majors may have rankled. He got to be the great hope for only one year.

[andyb]

Abel threw 98.5 in his spring debut. We just don't know why Painter got hurt, only that he did.

And saying Abel and McGarry could help the Phillies if they prove it on the field and saying Painter had not - is just flat out wrong. One can be cautious with Painter and maybe they should have been, but the Phillies were not abusing him and he completely deserved a chance to make the team based on his performance.

[zambonir]

Kaplan was his sports performance trainer. He's currently the Phillies' assistant pitching coach and minor league pitching director.

[andyb]

Still one guy trying to blame the unexplained injury on the player. We just don't know what caused his injury period.

[zambonir]

Well, agreed, we just don't know. But I wouldn't say he was blaming the player at all. I would say he was taking personal and organizational responsibility for the possibility that it played a role. Correlation not causation etc.

[Austinfan]

I don't know if Abel or McGarry will turn it around, just that they have the stuff to do so and be effective in a short ML stint before the league catches up with them and they'll have to refine their stuff - being successful as the 5th starter isn't a high hurdle.

I just feel they handled Painter wrong (and it seems Kaplan agrees, I pointed this out in ST). He should have been brought along slowly, without pressure and expectations, and if he blew away everyone in a half dozen minor league starts, then you bring him up with a lot of words of caution (we're just going to spot start him as the 5th starter, we don't expect too much, blah blah blah).

[andyb]

Kaplan is just covering his ass. Painter threw 29 pitches in a spring training game. He was not overextended. He is the result of a system Kaplan embodies. Teach young kids to throw 100 with a ridiculous spin rate. He is good at it. But the system is designed to take in kids, teach them up, and spit them out when they are done (often before they get expensive).

2 innings in Spring Training did not get Painter hurt. He was going to get hurt eventually. Hopefully it is not that serious but chances are he'll have TJ surgery once or twice over the next decade.

[Callison]

It was fun to think maybe the Phils had just started to hit for a game.

Best news of the night was Walker. Yeah, it's Detroit, but a really great outing, cool under pressure.

Today we got Wheeler. If I were Big Rob, I would be trying to reduce Wheeler's innings. When he's fully charged, he's an ace.

Maybe the Phils hitters will show up today. IT COULD HAPPEN!!!

GO PHILS!

[andyb]

I am not sure Detroit has anyone that would start for us. Baez is a shell of his former self. Riley Greene is on the IL. Is Torkelson really better than Kody Clemens or Drew Ellis at the moment? They have a few nice utility players that would get playing time, but it is about the worst lineup I have ever seen.

Good to see better pitching. Just not sure what it means.

[zambonir]

It means win the games you are supposed to win and then we'll see if they can even go 4-3 over the next 7 (that would mean a series win against the Dodgers and a road split in Phoenix, so my money is on 3-4. Fortunately after that it's Oakland).

Not at all a surprising headline - they are still capable of continuing to tread water until it's time to make moves.

As far as Painter I think what the Phillies need to cover their ass on (wait, really we can type that now?) is not that they may have contributed to his injury or were foolish to try and rush him, but that they really truly did factor him into how they built this rotation (and spent the money on the bullpen instead of a 5th starter, though that has worked out pretty well on several different levels).

Rosenthal: Phillies not thinking sell at trade deadline, plus Astros' needs and...

[andyb]

Thomson saying they are definitely playing tonight.