2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[fish]

Seranthony is certainly not hitting his (high) standards but he's hardly been struggling (after a rough start to the season).

That positive momentum did not last long. Seranthony Domínguez took over for Covey in the eighth inning and was unable to record an out. He threw only 11 pitches but less than half of them were strikes. Domínguez allowed a double, a walk, and an RBI single to give the Diamondbacks a 4-3 lead. The right-handed reliever had not allowed an earned run since April 14.

Hasn't blown a game since before then either. Mostly seems to be having BABIP bad luck (not last night, obviously). Given his history I would be more worried about the arm (be it injury or overuse last year). But he isn't really notably different than Kimbrel or Soto, they are all guys who have gotten rocked once or twice (or three times) in between getting the job done. As was Alvarado when it really counted last fall.

It seems like every game there is some reliever that has a let down inning, but that's probably because they have to use 4-5 relievers a game.

[zambonir]

Like the ball always finding the worst defender.

[andyb]

Getting Schwarber out of LF will help a great deal when they can make that happen. There were a couple of balls last night that even an average LF would have gotten.

Our 2 big defensive issues are Schwarber and Bohm. Filter that link to the Phillies. Turner could also be better but he is not a glaring issue yet.

https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard

[zambonir]

Yeah, Turner is the whipping boy (and in addition to his contract doesn't have the advantage of left-over World Series goodwill) but I'm afraid Bohm's ceiling is only barely replacement level as a player overall, whereas Turner's floor even now is still positive. Bohm is minus-four at 3B and minus-two at 1B in that link above for DRS, and he's minus 0.4 WAR.

Schwarber will be a big concern if he's headed for an off-year or into age-related decline. Maybe less of an issue if they can get him to DH but as a LF he really has to still be a 140 OPS+ guy.

[andyb]

It was a legitimate question to ask whether the Phillies would be better defensively with Stott at SS and Turner at 2B. Veteran deference made asking that question impossible, but maybe we should revisit that. I don't think Stott is great, but he has pretty sure hands and a decent arm.

[Austinfan]

This team is patchwork, waiting for the farm system to deliver enough talent.

Let's face it, going forward Schwarber and Castallenos in the OF is a disaster, they have to have career years to make it work and in their 30s, forget about it.

If Harper settles in at 1st, there's one DH slot going forward.
Bohm has to take the next step, or you play Sosa just for his defense.

They may well have to fire sale this summer, take a step back and wait for some young pitchers and OFs - Marsh, Pache, Muzzioti, maybe Ortiz is for real with his improvement so far, De La Cruz, Rojas right behind them and Crawford 2-3 years away.

Same with pitching, Painter, Abel, McGarry and some young RPs.

While I expect Turner to bounce back, you simply can't build a team around 30+ FAs and veterans - some will inevitably fall off leaving you with a lot of "Dead money." You have to have young cheap players to sustain success - and you have to grow a few high WAR players. We got lucky last season, but that wasn't sustainable - we can spend with the Dodgers, but we can't match their farm system yet.

[zambonir]

It was a legitimate question to ask whether the Phillies would be better defensively with Stott at SS and Turner at 2B.

Or Turner 3B Sosa SS Stott 2B?

[BostonRoss]

It's fun to think that the Yankees deferring to Jeter and moving A-Rod to 3B cost them same games and maybe more. Probably not true, but the Yankees didn't win any championships after signing A-Rod (other than one I may have blocked out...).

It's not imminent, but I think someday there will be multiple DHs in lineups. I don't like the DH, but I do like having Harper available to hit, and people up here where I live seemed to like having David Ortiz around. If Schwarber gets back to where he was last year, I think we'll be happier.

There are more than 30 players who can rake but are liabilities in the field. If it wouldn't cost them so much money, MLB would have multiple DHs now.

[andyb]

This team is patchwork, waiting for the farm system to deliver enough talent.

The problem with that statement is the farm system really does not have much talent outside the top 3 starters. Hard to find any position players that look likely to be above average regulars in the future. That is just reality. We will still need to spend money until we turn that around.

[zambonir]

There is certainly not going to be a fire sale (which is always AF's default position even outside the heat of the moment like some others. Not that we haven't all wondered if there might be one before last season changed everything). The thing is these Phillies can still throw money at their mistakes, something the 2012-2014 Phillies couldn't do. Even if they want to reset the CBT they have $ to play with, and if they don't, anything goes.

That could mean anything from eating salary on one of Schwarber or Castellanos in a trade to putting the Hoskins $ towards an OF or 3B to trading for a high-paid player (without giving up too much in prospects).

And it's not like they are devoid of cheaper pieces entirely - CF, 2B, possibly one more OF out of the current group, and the top four relievers are all controlled (and cost-controlled except for Soto). Getting two, rather than just one, of these young pitchers into the rotation obviously crucial.

[Austinfan]

We're not the Mets, Middleton may spend, but he's not that rich.
So we HAVE to have the farm system deliver.
Not every young player has to be 5-6 WAR, some 2-3 WAR starters and reliable RPs and consistent #4/#5s SPs would work wonders for this team.
We saw that with Hall and Brogdon last year, we may be seeing that with Clemons this year.

[zambonir]

We're not the Mets, Middleton may spend, but he's not that rich.

He's not that rich but he's still rich enough. He's worth $3.4 billion, he can pump an extra $100 million a year into the Phillies for the rest of his life if he wants (and that wouldn't all still come out of his personal wealth anyway, only whatever money the team actually loses each year. Which may never happen, so long as they win). The difference between him and Steve Cohen means Steve Cohen can buy more islands and planes but neither of them are personally affected by MLB payroll choices.

Anyway no one is seriously saying he will/should do that, or that the Phillies will exceed the "Cohen threshold." Merely remaining one of the Top 5 payrolls in baseball and being willing to exceed the CBT sometimes will be more than enough. Even just looking towards next season they start with the Nola/Hoskins/Kimbrel money. And if they did decide to move on from one of Castellanos or Schwarber they could probably go with a cheap youngster (for defense) and modestly priced veteran in the field while the DHs would all be guys who are already here.

Nobody debates that you need good players from the farm. Just what you do to fill that gap when you still don't have them. Clearly this franchise will not be aggressively rebuilding at any point in the next four years (DD's current contract) and probably not ever in Middleton's lifetime.

[Yogi]

Team is a joke, we need a change. Not sure what but no energy, no spirit right now.

[zambonir]

I actually disagree change is needed. Pressing/panic is probably a big part of the issue, and they don't really have any options if they start benching guys (nor are they going to make any changes to the manager or coaching staff).

They have been through this before - at this time last year (when changing the manager was hardly the sole reason things began to turn around, but the manager's best quality was also calm/consistency), and also last September after Bryce came back. Perhaps a team that stepped up in his absence also stepped back and started waiting for him to do it, and has again (even though he himself is hitting much better this time).

This team was never a great bet for 90 wins or the NL East so they just gotta keep see-sawing around .500 and try to stay alive as a wild card contender for the next five weeks. At that point if slumps haven't ended or guys aren't healthy, that reality and the standings will determine what happens in July (buy, sell, hold). Bryce's future position, short-term, also a big part of the puzzle.

Of course if the starting pitching continues to underachieve 1-4 (never mind 5) it's not gonna matter what the offense does, and every mistake by the actually good bullpen will be otherwise magnified.

[Yogi]

Trey Turner needs to go to the minors and fix his game, he is killing us. In that same category is Schwarber another no hit wonder. There is no one on this team that is playing well with just a few exceptions. The team has no apparent strengths, fielding not great, pitching both starting and relief is below average, and hitting is horrible, cannot change the whole team, so Rob got to go.

[andyb]

So we HAVE to have the farm system deliver.

Well duh. Of course the team is better if the farm system delivers and they should strive for this. You just list a dozen names in your post and assume they are good. Most of the names you listed will fail and none of our position players really project to being above average regulars. So they are not difference makers. We should play them at some positions to save money, but they really won't make us better compared to second tier free agents. There is a reason they are not top 100 prospects.

You just start from the premise that we should rely on the farm system. But there is nothing that has happened this year to suggest that would make a team capable of a winning record. Your post is all hope and no strategy or analysis.

[Yogi]

Anyone see that last at bat by Turner? What was he swinging at????? He needs to be benched, he is killing this team

[BostonRoss]

Anyone see that last at bat by Turner? What was he swinging at????? He needs to be benched, he is killing this team

You want to see more of Josh Harrison?

[RolenRules]

And he just homered.

I know Turner has been disappointing. However he has a long track record as a top 4 shortstop offensively. Let's hope this breaks his slump and he reverts to pre 2023 form.

[bkox]

Trey Turner needs to go to the minors and fix his game,

A player with 5+ years of service time can NOT be sent to the minors without his consent.

Here is a fun stat... Back in 1975 a Phillies player was batting .184 at the end of May. 6 HR, and a .630OPS. He struck out 61 times in 44 games.

Finished the year with an 890 OPS and 38 Homers.

Ofc that player is Mike Schmidt. Since that was only Schmidt's 3rd season (way less of a track record than Trea Turner at this point).. I wonder if you would have called for him to be sent down too.