2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

One assumes Covey follows him one time through the order (ish).

I'm sure the assistant GM has more than a little to do with those 40-man pick-ups but I still think Brian Kaplan might be their best hire (and Cotham obviously too, especially after all the years of terrible and ever-changing pitching coaches).

[BostonRoss]

Trying to be objective, I'm not sure that the Phillies are underperforming much compared to expectations, especially considering the key injuries (Hoskins, Ranger, Harper, and now Alvarado). Sure, some individuals are underperforming (most notably Turner and Schwarber), but others are exceeding expectations (Marsh, Stott, maybe Castellanos depending on how much of a bounce back was reasonable to assume). J.T. is a bit down from last year, but he's on a 4 to 5 WAR pace, which was a reasonable expectation (he was at 6.5 last year).

It's interesting to note that the batters' WAR from baseball-reference was 20.8 in 2022 and is 5.8 so far in 2023, which projects to about 20. The small difference is basically Hoskins' absence.

That means the pitching is what's underperforming this year. I didn't think it was realistic to expect both Nola and Wheeler to match last year, and that's part of the decline. Obviously, Ranger's injury and lack or performance to date is a major factor, as is Falter's decline. Seranthony has really dropped off, too. Kimbrel and Soto have been very inconsistent, but Alvarado, Brogdon, and Vazquez have been good. There are of course the cannon fodder types (Moore, Marte, Uelmen, etc.), but they had those last year, too (Coonrod, Norwood, and Familia, who pitched a lot before they cut him).

The Phillies won 87 games in 2022; at that pace they would have 25 this year, and they have 22. Not a huge drop off. And of course this time last year they were not on an 87 win pace.

[zambonir]

Yeah that's about what I just posted in last night's game thread.

And Schwarber still has 12 home runs and a 104 OPS+, so he's not nothing at the plate. On this day last year he was still only hitting .200 with a .760 OPS (which was as low as .698 earlier in May) so that's also nothing new. Hopefully he gets on track again, and Turner does as well (rather than being this year's Castellanos, but he's already a lot better than that, including positionally/defensively just by being average there).

If you believe line-ups matter, as some here still do, one might also argue that the loss of Hoskins and the absence of Harper makes things harder on Schwarber and Turner. (In Turner's case, perhaps he is putting too much pressure on himself - not only to live up to the contract but because his RH bat now has to replace Hoskins rather than Segura).

[flyers19rw]

Then there’s the defense. The seem to be giving away runs to the opposition at an alarming rate.

[zambonir]

Right, another thing that is not at all different from last year!

[Callison]

That's a good look, Boston - the Phils' pitching has been surprisingly weak.

BUT, THIS Phils team is built to score, say, 5 a game and cover pitching weakness. Let's also consider that the pitchers have to be nearly perfect cause the great hitters are looking average. Nearly all pitchers are better with a comfy lead, a rare experience with these Phils.

It's a long season. Lots of time for everybody to get it together I'm a lineup- believer, some work better than others, and Big Rob's preferred lineup needs adjustment. Try something else, Big Rob. I never liked Schwarber leading off, but the team went to the WS that way.

[BostonRoss]

Yeah that's about what I just posted in last night's game thread.

Haha, I missed that because I often stop following the game thread when it gets too depressing (though i did listen to the bitter end last night--then I switched to the Red Sox to watch Trout and Ohtani go hitless, followed by Moniak hitting a game winning home run).

[andyb]

Looks like they optioned Bellatti instead of Marte. He did look a little rough coming back from the IL.

Right-handed pitcher Dylan Covey, who was claimed on waivers from the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday, reported to the club today. To make room for Covey on the 26-man roster, right-hander Andrew Bellatti was optioned to Lehigh Valley following last night’s game.

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) May 23, 2023

[BostonRoss]

They are scoring 4.3 runs per game so far, compared to 4.6 last year. But they are giving up 4.6 runs per game this year, compared to 4.2 last year. So it's fair to say the offense has slipped some even as the pitching has declined.

[andyb]

Fun fact - I was reading the Baseball America May issue and they had an article on which prospects qualify for bonus draft picks. While Painter is obviously not going to win the 2023 rookie draft pick now, Bryson Stott was one of a handful of players from last year that are still eligible. I think this was based on his top 100 status and the fact that we sent him down briefly last year.

No rookie of the year award possibilities, but if Stott finishes in the top 3 for MVP the Phillies get a pick. I note that he does grade out positively on defense. 1.2 WAR so far is about a 4 WAR pace. He'll need to double that WAR of course (and probably hit .320 with 25 HR in the end), but one can dream.

[David_Criss]

SO Covey was claimed to be a bullpen piece? He and Hoffman can wear the same uniform - they are pretty much the same.

[andyb]

Hoffman throws about 5 mph harder than Covey.

Covey is there for bulk innings. He is rested and was available. They had a 40-man move they could make before Hall is healthy so they did it.

[zambonir]

Yes there is a much higher chance that Jeff Hoffman pitches in a playoff game - and in 2024 - for the Phillies. You could even argue that Bellatti just lost his job to Hoffman, even if Marte is technically taking the spot for now (Covey is really taking the Falter/Uehlman spot. Also for now).

[andyb]

Bellatti had an option left (looks like his last one) and Hoffman doesn't.

Unfortunately this is a reason Hoffman will stick for awhile even if he is inconsistent. Marte and Bellatti and Ortiz will get their options used all year.

[zambonir]

Yup just surprising to see Bellatti slide that far down the pecking order. He was arguably ahead of Brogdon as the team's top middle reliever - so about the #5 guy - for much of last year, and in actuality was about the third-best pitcher (ahead of Knebel and Hand) even if he was lower-leverage. But this year there are just more, and better, guys locking down spots 1-5 (with Brogdon 6th).

Maybe the carousel will stay in motion until the trade deadline but in the end I doubt they can keep both Vasquez and Hoffman. But had Hoffman not pitched so generally well (overall, SSS) they also could have just DFA'ed him and he might have cleared.

[zambonir]

Brandon Marsh scratched from #Phillies ' lineup with right shoulder inflammation. The team characterized his status as "day to day." Dalton Guthrie will play center field.

— Scott Lauber ( @ScottLauber ) May 23, 2023

[Yogi]

It is horrible to watch this team. No spirit, just getting paid for doing nothing, Turner, Schwarber, Nick C, just doing very little. Not worth what we are paying them. Last year was our time, this year we will be above the Nats, all others above us. And a new manager for next year.

[Yogi]

Another great outing from Sir Anthony, what happened to him? Cannot get a ball over the plate, missing signals, not good location.

[flyers19rw]

There has to be something wrong with Dominguez. He could use a stint at LV to get the Alvarado cure. The arm is there but something is missing.

[zambonir]

Seranthony is certainly not hitting his (high) standards but he's hardly been struggling (after a rough start to the season).

That positive momentum did not last long. Seranthony Domínguez took over for Covey in the eighth inning and was unable to record an out. He threw only 11 pitches but less than half of them were strikes. Domínguez allowed a double, a walk, and an RBI single to give the Diamondbacks a 4-3 lead. The right-handed reliever had not allowed an earned run since April 14.

Hasn't blown a game since before then either. Mostly seems to be having BABIP bad luck (not last night, obviously). Given his history I would be more worried about the arm (be it injury or overuse last year). But he isn't really notably different than Kimbrel or Soto, they are all guys who have gotten rocked once or twice (or three times) in between getting the job done. As was Alvarado when it really counted last fall.