2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[zambonir]

I am ready to enjoy the ride, let's hope there is one! (For him and the Phillies both.)

And if he does slot in as a legit late-inning weapon next year that means they could trade (or non-tender) Soto and/or be under less pressure to re-sign Kimbrel or replace him with a free agent. Which frees up $ for something else since Strahm, Seranthony and Alvarado are all locked up and Hoffman is also controlled. (Don't worry Callison, there will still be guys at the bottom of the pen next year for you to think should be replaced by All-Stars.)

[andyb]

That was definitely the full Fangraphs/pitching ninja treatment. I do get the argument stuff-wise that he is a unicorn. Most of the guys like him throw 95 and not 100. He seems to have the type of slider also where the break is so great that the chances of him being taken deep on a hanger are less than other pitchers.

I would still tread carefully. Probably limit him to every other day and no 2-inning outings. One can do that in the playoffs and frankly we have 5 or 6 late inning arms now. In tentative pecking order I think I rank them: Kimbrel, Alvarado, Hoffman, Strahm, Kerkering, Dominguez, Soto. All one could say about that is wow - 7 arms that could potentially close for many teams. It is a far cry from Neris and close your eyes on the rest of them that we had a few short years ago.

Kerkering could be the most effective of the 7 now but the main point is we have 7. If starters only go 5 or 6 innings we are fine because we'll have a couple of long relievers too in Sanchez and Lorenzen before we get to the 7 late inning arms. We also only developed 2 of these arms. Not ideal so it costs us a little more $$$, but this is a major league playoff-ready bullpen.

[Philsmania]

Kerkering is our most interesting relief pitcher prospect since 100 Miles Giles. But, the headline of that article is definitely a case of getting ahead of things.

[zambonir]

Still kind of depressing to put Seranthony that low on the list. And that they just haven't found Soto's upside. But that took a few years with Alvarado.

For sure they should tread carefully. I don't think they will change his usage pattern, and they will be pretty targeted about where to spot him too. But they also don't have to hide him.

And yeah a bullpen game would look a lot different than it did last year... and they still managed to win a few of those!

[andyb]

I thought Seranthony was coming around maybe 10 days ago but he really has not found the movement on his offspeed pitch that he had last year. It is really a pecking order with no specific order. I don't really trust Kimbrel and Alvardo more than Hoffman and Strahm and Kerkering. They just have the experience so will get the chances until they prove they can't handle them.

[Philsmania]

This is probably just something of a lost season for Seranthony. With the injuries, he never had the chance to get going. Hopefully, he'll be better next year.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Good prioritized list of our top bullpen arms, @andyb. I would switch places and rank Alvarado ahead of Kimbrel at this point. I appreciate what Kimbrel has done for the Phillies this year, but during the last few weeks, he has become less and less reliable. I like the fact that Thomson has begun to mix and match in the late innings.

[andyb]

Notice that Kimbrel and Alvarado have been trading the 8th and 9th the last week anyway based upon matchups. Assume Rob did this after talking to both - and that will be the plan going forward in an ideal world. Ranking order may not matter with those 2.

[zambonir]

Seranthony last September/October (regular season)

7 IP, 11.57 ERA, 2.571 WHIP

Seranthony in the post-season

10.2 IP, 1.69 ERA, 0.750 WHIP

[andyb]

Closing out the first few series early did give everyone lots of rest. Sounds like a plan for 2023.

[zambonir]

Seems worth noting that while that Fangraphs article hypes Kerkering up in the headline and the body, it ends up concluding that most early-arriving/inexperienced post-season pitchers don't succeed - even as it also circles back and says he could be an exception.

[Callison]

Who are the projects in the current bullpen?

That would be the pitchers that don't perform that the Phils love anyway. That would include Covey. Dominguez is getting there.

Marte, Ortiz and Belatti are projects - though they're not on the team now, they have been lately and they show the weakness of the pen. Projects.

[zambonir]

That's just not how bullpens work. Your 7th and 8th guys in the bullpen are like your bench players. Or your 5th starter. They are never going to be as good (or make as much money, if they aren't young players) as your best arms. In some cases they have those jobs because they can be optioned (like the three guys you mentioned); in others because they aren't generally expected to pitch in high-leverage situations (like Covey). And Dominguez is not a project, he's just a struggling proven high-paid veteran. Like Turner was.

It's actually quite remarkable that neither Covey nor the three guys you mention are likely to make the playoff roster. When Soto is the least certain guy in your pen (along with, possibly Lorenzen, and a guy who has only pitched in one major league game) that's insane quality and depth. And the only actual project in this pen, Hoffman, is the one who worked out and stuck. Unfortunately even good relievers have bad innings and it only takes one in the playoffs. And as Soto himself shows, even proven closers/All-Stars aren't necessarily the best pitchers (which you can say about Kimbrel sometimes too).

[Austinfan]

It's hard for any team to go 8-9 deep in the pen, Phllies are slowly building up a portfolio of young arms, but meanwhile the retreads and projects are added to patch holes at low cost.

Still, Kimbrel, SD, Alvarado, Hoffman, Strahm, Soto, Lorenzo, Kerkering ain't a bad group going into the playoffs.
It would have been nice if Brogdon didn't suddenly go south.

[andyb]

Phllies are slowly building up a portfolio of young arms

Really? It is not a young bullpen even with Kerkering added. We have built a portfolio of arms but most of the better ones are free agents or trade acquisitions in the middle of their career. Even Alvarado and Dominguez are both at or just past their theoretical peak.

We prioritize big arms that are likely destined for relief in the draft like Kerkering but I also imagine over a dozen other organizations are doing this too.

The truth is we started prioritizing the bullpen more. Period. And we got better at identifying arms like Hoffman and Alvarado and Strahm that can be acquired for a modest cost.

[zambonir]

We could start a playoff discussion thread I guess, but there's still a few days left. Sounds like the playoff roster is all but set even though Zolecki says "might."

I guess Castro and Covey will remain with the major league team rather than getting sent to Clearwater? And it seems Yunior Marte's year is done. Gotta feel a little bad for Drew Ellis.

Phillies postseason FAQ: What's next?

What might the NL Wild Card Series roster look like?
C: J.T Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs
1B: Bryce Harper
2B: Bryson Stott
3B: Alec Bohm
SS: Trea Turner
OF: Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache
INF/OF: Edmundo Sosa, Jake Cave
DH: Kyle Schwarber
Rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez
Bullpen: Craig Kimbrel, José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Michael Lorenzen, Taijuan Walker, Cristopher Sánchez, Orion Kerkering

A case could be made for Weston Wilson. He played well in limited opportunities this season, but for now he will join nine other Phillies at a stay-ready camp in Clearwater, Fla.: catcher Rafael Marchán; first baseman Darick Hall; infielder/outfielder Kody Clemens; right-handers Andrew Bellatti, Connor Brogdon, Nick Nelson, McKinley Moore and Luis Ortiz; and left-hander Michael Plassmeyer.

[Austinfan]

We have a lot more "live" RP arms in the system than a few years ago.
But most are a year or two away (if ever).
But things can change quickly for RPs (and minor league SPs who move to the pen, McGarry?).

[Callison]

I'm trying to make the point here that Kerkering looks like a welcome addition to the team and if he's consistent,he will be on the team in place of other, weaker arms that the Phils have tried previously. The 7/8 guys can be less talented than the rest of the pen, fine, but some of the arms the Phils have tried just haven't shown much talent.

As I have explained, by project, I mean a player that is underperforming that the Phils stick with anyway because they know what nobody else knows - that the player has potential. That includes all the pitchers I mentioned. The Phils will rightly stick with Dominguez, but one more bad outing and he's a project.

[Philsmania]

It would have been nice if Brogdon didn't suddenly go south.

As did Bellatti and Nelson, both of whom were useful to varying degrees last year. Such is the nature of relief pitchers. So many guys can only be counted on for one year, coming out of oblivion to have a good season but then going back to oblibivion the next.

[BostonRoss]

Harper can DH. He wasn’t partying.