2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[David_Criss]

Someone gets sent down tomorrow. Does it have to be a position player, since it is for Marsh?

[bkox]

Someone gets sent down tomorrow. Does it have to be a position player, since it is for Marsh?

probably 2 roster moves tomorrow as I believe Alvarado is coming back tomorrow too

[LoneStarPhan]

There can be no more than 13 pitchers and they will continue to carry 13 so Marsh will displace a position player. If they add Alvarado, another pitcher will be sent down.

I would guess Wilson and Ortiz will be sent out.

[zambonir]

You can certainly make the case that they should keep Wilson just as a hitter and don't really need Castro as an IF, neither of them have really played enough to show anything either way (Wilson's debut aside). You could also make the case to send down Castro since Pache will just replace Wilson but now that might not happen for a bit.

Ortiz or Bellatti presumably.

[bkox]

The Phillies optioned Weston Wilson to Lehigh Valley after tonight’s game. They’ll have to make another roster move tomorrow to activate Alvarado.

— Alex Coffey ( @byalexcoffey ) August 21, 2023

[Sabin]

Do you know what "almost" means?

This seems a bit of a harsh response.

[mdougherty12]

Pitchers in their middle-20s tend to add a little velocity, some from adding strength (which peaks in the late 20s for most athletes), some from refining mechanics. The operative word is "little", like 1-2 MPH. ranger added about 1 MPH in his mid-20s

I don't see any support for this statement from the couple of studies on pitcher aging I've seen. There was a multi-part series on pitcher aging on Fangraphs in 2012:

Pitcher Aging Curves: Introduction

They found that pitchers lose velocity from the beginning of their careers. A more recent study from 2020 found that pitchers tend to maintain velocity as they age better in recent years. Interestingly, fastball usage is also down in recent years on average:

Aging Curves Revisited: Damn Strikeouts

[andyb]

There are some pitchers that add velocity in their mid-20s but it is rare. Most of the instances are likely coming back from surgery like TJ surgery where the repaired elbow is better than the injured one. I think Ranger picked up his velocity much more in his early 20s, not mid-20s. There are other instances like Hoffman who picks up velocity in relief. I do think he has refined his mechanics to emphasize that.

The whole age 27 thing is the intersection of declining athletic ability and rising baseball IQ. Baseball IQ probably increases until a player is in his 30s and maybe never really stops increasing. Athletic ability probably peaks in the early 20s. 27 is where the 2 meet. Athletic ability is near peak but declining slowly.

Baseball IQ builds steadily. Ironically baseball IQ is sometimes a reason why a baseball player who has it may not improve that much. William Bergolla for example has a great baseball IQ. That part of his game may not get much better though unless he shows some speed, power, and defense. Stott is an example of a relatively high IQ player that has improved, though one wonders if what we are seeing is his peak now also.

[zambonir]

I will concede it was snippy and apologize - but it's not the first or even second time I have posted something with a qualifying statement or modifier that Allentown ignored or overlooked, including by actively omitting it from a quote block in some cases. I guess I should have also used an emoji (in the original post), which was meant to be lighthearted disagreement with AF even though I also think he's wrong

Anyway, I will settle for Sanchez being a decent 4th or 5th starter for a few years. If he's more than that, great. But I don't think he's going to rise to the middle of the rotation due to him being young or adding velocity.

As far as the age curve the Phillies' problem is indeed that Stott is already 26 and Bohm 27 as much as it is that Turner, Schwarber, Harper, JT and Castellanos are past their prime. That's why the window remains so short.

[Austinfan]

"The Phillies, like other forward-thinking clubs, see modern pitching instruction tied to how the body moves. There is important work done on traditional mechanics and pitch grips and pitch design — those all have their place. But the Phillies have incorporated more biomechanics into their evaluations. Athletic trainers and strength and conditioning coaches are more involved in how the Phillies chart a course for their pitchers.

To gain more command, the Phillies believed Sánchez needed to be stronger."

Now there are limits to how much sustainable strength he can add at 26, he's not a 17 year old LA pitcher who is going to get a 4-6 MPH jump as he fills out - but adding a MPH between 23 and 26 is not rare, it's pretty common. Some is physical maturity, speed peaks in the early 20s, strength in the late 20s, some is improved mechanics.

"On average, pitchers saw a bump in velocity on their heater from around age 22 to 26 years of age. At ~27 years old, fastball velocity is expected to decline. It is important to note survivorship bias, which explains that we can only account for the older players that stayed in the big leagues, and can’t account for players who were released or retired in the sample."

The Makeup of a Pitcher Debuting in the Major Leagues

This matters on the pitching side, of course — pitchers are aging a little better than they used to. It’s not just a trick of the eyes. And, as we can see from the aging curves, this superior aging overall is because their strikeout abilities are hanging around longer than they used to. Their fastball velocity is sticking around longer, which could be due to better training habits, but maybe also due to this graph, which begins to explain why starters are aging better, in particular.

Sarris: Is this the golden age of the old(er) starting pitcher?

[zambonir]

So what you're showing here is, pay Nola.

[bkox]

Actually this is interesting. Of the 35 pitchers with ERAs under 4 and enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. 17 are 30 and above. So just under half. 7 of those are 33 and above.

[andyb]

Clearly knowledge of how to pitch is important. Always has been and always will be. In general the aging curves don't lie that much. Tommy John surgery is clearly extending (and delaying) careers too. That does not mean the "peak" age will change that much. We just may be seeing more of a slower decline among smart pitchers who take care of their body (Nola, but also guys like Scherzer and Verlander).

Sanchez got better because his change got better along with his command. He is throwing less hard (likely by choice) than when he came up. He was also a guy that developed the mid-90s velocity rather late. I believe that was why he was available because he suddenly looked like a guy who needed protection on the 40 where the previous winter he had not.

I've seen a lot of Cole Irvins though. Sanchez has much to prove (and a favorable contract status giving him time) and will get a chance to do so.

[zambonir]

Currently, or in the Sarris article?

[Austinfan]

A lot of the aging curve articles date back to a decade ago, and there's some evidence that with the emergence of new training techniques, pitchers are maintaining and increasing velocity later in careers. Since a lot of this video work is expensive, it probably has been far more available at the MLB level, over time, it'll percolate down to the minors and pitchers will improve at younger ages.

Older pitchers also rely on FBs less, so you'd expect a slight uptick simply b/c they don't overstress their arms as much, they develop secondary pitches and rely on them more. The big chance in Sanchez this year isn't the changeup, but an improved slider (at least looking at Fansgraph pitching data).

[bkox]

Currently, or in the Sarris article?

currently.

[andyb]

A lot of the aging curve articles date back to a decade ago, and there's some evidence that with the emergence of new training techniques, pitchers are maintaining and increasing velocity later in careers

Not trying to be argumentative, but you are not presenting evidence of this. We are talking about "average" aging curves. Yes pitchers are picking up velocity, but younger pitchers are doing that too. What we really need to see are updated innings-weighted aging curves to see if it is true.

We just might have added 1-2 mph to every age group. Any stretching of the peak age could easily be other pitching analytics like optimizing spin rate and movement - stuff that might take time for pitchers to learn to perfect.

[Austinfan]

Earlier articles had peak velocity occuring in the early 20s, more recent artciles, 26-27.
Some of this may be better statistical techniques, but I think it's reasonable that an article 10 years old, relying on data 15-30 years ago, would miss the impact of video, biomechanics and better strength training on pitcher aging.

As far as pitcher effectiveness stretching well into their 30s, that is probably due to better understanding of spin rates, and the self-selection of hitters who can hit higher velocity FBs but who are more vulnerable to good secondary pitches, and older pitchers tend to have better secondary pitches since they've had more experience experimenting with different pitches and grips until they perfect their secondary pitches.

[bkox]

in 2008, there were 47 pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title and had ERAs under 4. Of those only 7 were 30 and above.

in 1980 is was 24 of 58.. including 7 of the top 10. (top 3 were all 35)

1993 is was 15 of 44..

Obviously just random years but I wonder if its just something that ebbs and flows.

[andyb]

Obviously just random years but I wonder if its just something that ebbs and flows.

I suspect that much of it is random, though there is probably more opportunity for older pitchers now because of Tommy John and other surgeries. In 1950 Painter would have probably struggled with a sore arm for a few years and disappeared forever (or come back as a 4-pitch 88-mph guy).

It is probably more difficult for young pitchers to qualify for the ERA title too with 5/6 man rotations and 5-inning starts. Our manager definitely has a bias towards letting Wheeler and Nola work things out while pulling guys like Sanchez earlier. Now he has a mostly veteran rotation now, but he really had a quick trigger on young starters (Suarez for instance a couple of years ago).