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Sep 2023

Closing out the first few series early did give everyone lots of rest. Sounds like a plan for 2023.

Seems worth noting that while that Fangraphs article hypes Kerkering up in the headline and the body, it ends up concluding that most early-arriving/inexperienced post-season pitchers don't succeed - even as it also circles back and says he could be an exception.

That would be the pitchers that don't perform that the Phils love anyway. That would include Covey. Dominguez is getting there.

Marte, Ortiz and Belatti are projects - though they're not on the team now, they have been lately and they show the weakness of the pen. Projects.

That's just not how bullpens work. Your 7th and 8th guys in the bullpen are like your bench players. Or your 5th starter. They are never going to be as good (or make as much money, if they aren't young players) as your best arms. In some cases they have those jobs because they can be optioned (like the three guys you mentioned); in others because they aren't generally expected to pitch in high-leverage situations (like Covey). And Dominguez is not a project, he's just a struggling proven high-paid veteran. Like Turner was.

It's actually quite remarkable that neither Covey nor the three guys you mention are likely to make the playoff roster. When Soto is the least certain guy in your pen (along with, possibly Lorenzen, and a guy who has only pitched in one major league game) that's insane quality and depth. And the only actual project in this pen, Hoffman, is the one who worked out and stuck. Unfortunately even good relievers have bad innings and it only takes one in the playoffs. And as Soto himself shows, even proven closers/All-Stars aren't necessarily the best pitchers (which you can say about Kimbrel sometimes too).

It's hard for any team to go 8-9 deep in the pen, Phllies are slowly building up a portfolio of young arms, but meanwhile the retreads and projects are added to patch holes at low cost.

Still, Kimbrel, SD, Alvarado, Hoffman, Strahm, Soto, Lorenzo, Kerkering ain't a bad group going into the playoffs.
It would have been nice if Brogdon didn't suddenly go south.

Really? It is not a young bullpen even with Kerkering added. We have built a portfolio of arms but most of the better ones are free agents or trade acquisitions in the middle of their career. Even Alvarado and Dominguez are both at or just past their theoretical peak.

We prioritize big arms that are likely destined for relief in the draft like Kerkering but I also imagine over a dozen other organizations are doing this too.

The truth is we started prioritizing the bullpen more. Period. And we got better at identifying arms like Hoffman and Alvarado and Strahm that can be acquired for a modest cost.

We could start a playoff discussion thread I guess, but there's still a few days left. Sounds like the playoff roster is all but set even though Zolecki says "might."

I guess Castro and Covey will remain with the major league team rather than getting sent to Clearwater? And it seems Yunior Marte's year is done. Gotta feel a little bad for Drew Ellis.

What might the NL Wild Card Series roster look like?
C: J.T Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs
1B: Bryce Harper
2B: Bryson Stott
3B: Alec Bohm
SS: Trea Turner
OF: Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache
INF/OF: Edmundo Sosa, Jake Cave
DH: Kyle Schwarber
Rotation: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez
Bullpen: Craig Kimbrel, José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Michael Lorenzen, Taijuan Walker, Cristopher Sánchez, Orion Kerkering

A case could be made for Weston Wilson. He played well in limited opportunities this season, but for now he will join nine other Phillies at a stay-ready camp in Clearwater, Fla.: catcher Rafael Marchán; first baseman Darick Hall; infielder/outfielder Kody Clemens; right-handers Andrew Bellatti, Connor Brogdon, Nick Nelson, McKinley Moore and Luis Ortiz; and left-hander Michael Plassmeyer.

We have a lot more "live" RP arms in the system than a few years ago.
But most are a year or two away (if ever).
But things can change quickly for RPs (and minor league SPs who move to the pen, McGarry?).

I'm trying to make the point here that Kerkering looks like a welcome addition to the team and if he's consistent,he will be on the team in place of other, weaker arms that the Phils have tried previously. The 7/8 guys can be less talented than the rest of the pen, fine, but some of the arms the Phils have tried just haven't shown much talent.

As I have explained, by project, I mean a player that is underperforming that the Phils stick with anyway because they know what nobody else knows - that the player has potential. That includes all the pitchers I mentioned. The Phils will rightly stick with Dominguez, but one more bad outing and he's a project.

As did Bellatti and Nelson, both of whom were useful to varying degrees last year. Such is the nature of relief pitchers. So many guys can only be counted on for one year, coming out of oblivion to have a good season but then going back to oblibivion the next.

Religious belief or hardcore fitness regimen?

I don't think Nelson had a bad year, he just got hurt in spring training and then the Phillies were so thin at starting pitcher (both for major league depth and in Allentown) that he was never a bullpen option. He started 20 games. We certainly don't want to see him in the playoffs now!

Bellatti seems more like the classic, if he was good last year, he won't be good this year guy. Since he was also more of a fringe arm to begin with. But he had some injuries too no?

Its religious belief. The famous "Thats a clown question bro" quote from Harper came from a reporter asking him if he will drink when the team goes to Canada where the legal age is 18. This was when Harper was 20.

Harper is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints

Yeah I knew he was but I wasn't sure how strict. And I did not recall the context of that!

split this topic Sep 27, '23

2 posts were merged into an existing topic: Phillies Hot Stove, 2023-24

Why not? What is your reasoning here?

Thanks, z. Yeah, we did. Here's a link (it took me about 30 seconds to find it, using the search function):

https://www.philliesphans.com/t/non-phillies-2023-major-league-season-discussion/53196/391

Well, to be fair, there was also that hot stove thread which got locked (partly at my suggestion IIRC).

I'm kind of all or nothing about this sort of housekeeping question - I think there should either be more highly specific threads, i.e. one that is just about Mike Trout, or just about whether to re-sign Nola (and the alternatives) not the hot stove in general. Or we all continue to just do most of our posting in this one (along with the in-game and post-game conversation and of course the inevitable drift and OT) as usual.

I think some people are shy about starting new threads but also new/more granular threads tends to die and then we are right back here.

And of course the previous conversation was in the maxxed-out version of this thread, so that would continue here.

I guess I'm just really bugged by posts that start out "I know this doesn't belong here, but..." We have a search function that works. (Search on "Trout," use Advanced Search to limit your search to the past month or so... if there's a recent discussion, it will come up.) If there's really nothing recent, then a new thread... or a consideration as to what existing thread makes the most sense... is in order.

Yeah, an offseason trade discussion (Trout or anybody else) really belongs in the Hot Stove thread. That's currently hidden, in obeisance to the Baseball Gods (e.g., we don't want to anger them and have them punish us by... well, you know). I'll bring that thread back when appropriate.

Aaahh... Looking at the aforementioned Hot Stove thread (which I can see, nyah, nyah :wink:), it seems I committed to move "offending" posts to that thread. I'll do that with the Trout thing. Question, though. Do y'all think the Hot Stove thread should remain invisible for the next month or so, or be visible, but locked? [Note: It's currently visible, but pretty far down the list; I had to unhide it in order to move the posts in question.]

The hot stove thread should be visible and not locked. We need a place to discuss the future but understand if discussions on things like Mike Trout really don't belong in the current Phillies thread. We could do a separate postseason thread of course, but that seems a little unnecessary too.

That's one vote for "unlocked."

As for a separate postseason thread...I could go either way. We've already been discussing the postseason roster, and we'll have game threads. That seems like enough?

xogfog – you're the principal "victim" in all this. Any thoughts?