2023 Phillies Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[bkox]

But clearly the same goes for Muzziotti (to say nothing of Weston Wilson and Kingery). Somebody's still gotta be a LHB, and preferably an OF.

Right. I was just pointing this out to Callison because he was expecting Cave to have finally found MLB magic based on his AAA numbers

[andyb]

All I want is a 725 OPS with decent LF defense out of Cave. That he should be able to do when platooned mostly against RHP.

[zambonir]

Yeah. But we already saw him tear it up in spring training and flop in April too. Not to mention for most of his career. Supposedly this was his first healthy season in several years. He just seems like AAAA player to me.

And his OPS against RHP this year is .605. May as well just play Pache or Rojas once Pache is back (and then Marsh as the regular LF).

[phillychuck]

I'm interested in the automated strike zone discussion. I've also heard that the problem for pitchers is the high strike. As someone who has worked behind the plate (college, not pro, admittedly) the 3D zone is pretty BS, umps don't really have the depth perception to see where the ball is dipping. We all make approximations based on seeing the pitchers' pitches over the course of a game (or similar pitches over the course of a season). The best way to do this might be to use two 2D zones at the front of the zone and the back of the zone, and to expand the high strike a little bit.

[Austinfan]

The other question is does the ball have to be in the strike zone or just touch it, b/c the ball is a few inches wide.

[phillychuck]

It just has to touch the zone.

[andyb]

Stark interview with Dombrowski on his podcast has some interesting things. It really sounds like the Phillies decided the offensive improvement of a right-handed bat was not much if there was some defensive dropoff compared to Marsh.

And they really wanted a pitcher that could both start and relieve. They probably see the playoffs as much shorter leashes on all starters except maybe Wheeler. Having Suarez and Lorenzen capable of giving them 3 innings out of the bullpen is a potential weapon in a wild card (or any short) series.

Dombrowski discusses how the Phillies landed Lorenzen and why they passed on a...

[Callison]

@Callison This is why we dont trust Jake Cave's AAA numbers

Good knowledge, bk.

Big Rob has been way patient with Cave, as he is with nearly everybody, but Cave hasn't hit his weight. Doesn't even look promising. Where's the guy that got 2 hits and made an All Star catch against the Orioles?

[bkox]

Where's the guy that got 2 hits and made an All Star catch against the Orioles?

everyone is capable of a good game. Remember Drew Ellis's 2 HR game? He went 3 for 3 in that game and 2 for 20 in every other game

[gmwannabe]

What do the Phillies get if they lose Nola through free agency? I know they must give an offer.
gm

[Patchmk88]

I think because we are over the luxery tax threshold, we’d receive a pick after the completion of the 4th round.

[gmwannabe]

wow! has that ever changed.

[andyb]

Nola won't accept the 1-year offer but at least he is good enough that we are not just offering it for the draft pick. I suspect the Phillies will sign him because the alternatives are less good and will have much less durability theoretically.

[EDmuch]

Why is Blake Snell "less good" than Nola?

[andyb]

Career WAR 30.9 vs 18.5. Much healthier and consistent. Snell has been better this one year but that is it. This will only be his second season with 130 innings or more.

Zach Wheeler had some of the same questions but even he had 3 180+ inning seasons (and 2 consecutive) when he came to the Phillies.

[bkox]

Why is Blake Snell "less good" than Nola?

He would cost us yet another high round draft pick because hes almost guaranteed to be offered a QO

[Philsmania]

It feels like the next time we get a draft pick for a QO, it will be the first in a long time. Our FA's usually seem to take the offer. Might Nola hope for a pillow year since this seasons has gone sour?

[andyb]

I feel Nola will get incentives on a long term deal rather than settle for a 1-year deal. Hoskins is actually the guy that might take a 1-year offer though he is more of a $20 million player anyway rather than potentially a $30 million dollar one.

Were Watson and Gueller (2012) our last comp picks? That did not go well.

[zambonir]

The comp pick for Nola is also barely of consequence. The comp to sign someone is of great consequence.

Equally reasonably to dismiss Nola's 2023 as a blip than to assume Snell's 2023 represents his future. They're the same age too, though obviously the durability can also be spun both ways (i.e. Nola has more wear on him).

[bkox]

OF Cristian Pache (right elbow irritation) is expected to begin a rehab assignment tonight with single-A Clearwater

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) August 8, 2023