2023 Phillies Post Season Discussion

[zambonir]

I wonder if Big Rob play Schwarber in LF.

Certainly not in these first two games, and probably not Cave either. But Cave is a perfectly serviceable bench player. He is not the problem, the overall make-up of the Phillies roster, as well as the injuries, are. When you lose a Rhys Hoskins and a Bryce Harper they don't get replaced by someone good. Ironically Hoskins' injury has made it easier to get both Harper and Schwarber into the line-up, but that still leaves them either needing a LF (if Marsh is in CF) or playing a light-hitting RHB in CF even against RHP (if Marsh is in LF). That is a choice the Phillies also made to take their chances with Rojas/Pache and Castro, the latter of whom has failed obviously.

The only way Schwarbs plays the field is if Harper can't. And if it happens, there's a really high chance that we'll remember the Phillies losing a pivotal playoff game because of it.

[zambonir]

It occurs to me that last year I (and many others) thought the Phillies were a decent team that squeaked in the playoffs and likely wouldn't measure up against better playoff competition, especially on the road. Obviously that was not the case (well, until it was).

This year expectations are higher as the reigning NL champion. The win total is higher. And yet: the Phillies don't have a winning record against the rest of the NL playoff field, and it's not close (Arizona is the only one they took a season series from). 19-26, .422 winning percentage. Means nothing of course, the post-season is a different beast, but still a little disconcerting. Last year they actually did have a winning record against STL and SD, and had gone 8-11 against the Braves while getting fat on the Nats and Marlins (but not the Mets of course).

[phillychuck]

I don't remember which year it was (1983 maybe), but one year a while ago when we met the Dodgers in the playoffs we were 1-11 against them and most of the games were not close. I believe we beat them 3-1 in the NLCS. It's a funny game, only the very best teams (100 wins +) have any real expectations. Let's hope we get the bounces.

[zambonir]

Andy's five-man bench is happening.

Phillies wild-card roster includes multiple rookies, no Lorenzen

[BaseballCat]

[zambonir]

Lorenzen was supposed to be the equivalent of Thor in 2022 and instead he's Bailey Falter in 2022. I'm sure he'll get his chance next round. Ideally Walker never pitches in this round either (because it ends in 2 or because Ranger is fully available and effective if it goes 3).

[andyb]

This is probably a first round only thing with 2 lefties in the first 2 games. Nice to have extra right-handed bats around and if you get Wilson out of there in the 5th inning for Marsh you still have Pache in reserve (or vice versa).

The reality also is you just don't need the extra pitcher in the first round. I guess Rob is undecided about Suarez and his usage so wanted to keep Walker around to start game 3 potentially. He is also the type that would prefer the veteran to start over the kid (Sanchez). Trust in Lorenzen is also not quite there.

Good decisions IMO.

[zambonir]

And also, of course, still pretty remarkable that Kerkering beat out Lorenzen. Deservedly, but both narrative arcs unexpected.

[andyb]

Kerkering use will be fascinating. One would not think that Rob is the type of manager to put him in a late inning high leverage situation yet. But I also think his second playoff outing could be in that type of situation if his first outing goes well (and someone else like Kimbrel or Alvarado has issues).

[zambonir]

Maybe not late inning high leverage but certainly 6th inning high leverage, if necessary. Alvarado's pitched his share of those too. It's really a Kerkering vs. Seranthony question isn't it?

And then also finding spots for Soto where he doesn't have to face a strong RHB.

[andyb]

Soto has really been dominant against lefties. 127/205/228 slash. And he even gave up 2 HRs doing that.

I guess LOOGYs throw 100 mph these days. I think Soto is the one guy who will be used in most games but only for a few batters (often to finish an inning).

[David_Criss]

Kinda surprised Walker over Lorenzen for this round. Lorenzen was decent out of the pen and Suarez will be the 3rd starter if needbe.

[zambonir]

What that tells you is they will use Suarez in Game 1 or 2 if they have to/want to. Sanchez could still be the guy who pitches the most innings in Game 3 if Ranger isn't. Walker could just go one time through (problem is he usually gets off to a poor start and then settles down).

If the Phillies win Game 1 they will do everything they can to keep there from being a Game 3 and if they lose Game 1 they will do everything they can to make sure there's a Game 3.

[andyb]

Lorenzen was decent out of the pen

Not sure this is true. He was awful in his first outing. Then decent against bad teams as the season was mostly already decided (Mets and Pittsburgh).

Total for the 4 games is 4.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 Ks.

Obviously all SSS, but it is hard to say he is decent yet.

[andyb]

No respect. Put this on the black board. ESPN 40 most impactful postseason players. Top Phillie is Wheeler at 34 and then Bryce at 40.

These 40 players will make or break the playoffs for their teams

[DurhamBull]

It must be pretty exciting for Wilson and Kerkering to start the season in the minors and make it to the postseason roster based on a very small major league sample. Good luck to them both!

[Callison]

Really glad to see the project pitchers are not here. Thank you Kerkering!!!

And big congrats to Kerkering and Wilson. A real honor.

A day full of baseball and the Phils don't play until nighttime. Gonna be a slow day. I think the Rays and Twins will win their series. Here's hoping the Dbacks and Brewers play three 20-inning games. And here's hoping the Phils win big and easy.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Why do we care about the Brewers and DBacks?

[zambonir]

Well I guess we can root for all their pitchers to blow out their arms but that would be a little unsporting.

What we should be rooting for is a Philadelphia-Arizona NLCS.

[Docs]

Maybe Callison likes lots of free baseball