2023 Phillies Post Season Discussion

Callison 2023-10-02 15:25:09 UTC #21

Surprised the folks with the data here haven't shown us how the Phils do at night vs. day. If the Phils have won significantly more at night, that would be my only reason to like 8PM starts. I prefer daytime baseball... like it began in the parks.

But that really doesn't matter and neither does the season record. Playoff games can go either way. The Phils CAN win with pitching and they CAN win with hitting. I can hardly wait.

Surprised to see the Cubs miss the playoffs. They were hot as fire for a while.

andyb 2023-10-02 16:46:29 UTC #22

Assume we don't see rosters for a bit, but this will definitely be an interesting decision for Thomson. I think he clearly wants another offensive right-handed bat in the lineup against Luzardo. That would be likely Wilson over Pache.

I just wonder if you keep a pitcher (potentially Taijuan Walker) off the short series roster and keep both Wilson and Pache. Wilson would be the game 1 starter in the NLDS potentially if they decided to go with some combo of Suarez, Sanchez, and Lorenzen in a game 3. Walker is the only one who has not relieved, so saving him is not the worst call.

Now if Wilson is going to start over Pache it is likely we will not really need Pache (since we already have Rojas and Marsh for defense and Casty rarely comes out of the game), so it is a tricky call.

bkox 2023-10-02 17:17:21 UTC #23

I cant find the Phillies record in day games versus night games.. but looking at the splits from our hitters. Most have a higher OPS in day games versus night games. Stott is the biggest difference .853 in day games. .680 in night games. Casty also has an over 100 point OPS difference

Of our starters, Only Schwarber and Realmuto have a better night OPS vs day OPS this season.

And Wheeler 8-1 3.21 in day games 5-5 3.92 in night games. Nola also much better in day games.

zambonir 2023-10-02 18:53:13 UTC #24

Speculation (I forget by which writer) is that Pache might still get the start in LF over Wilson, who is not really an outfielder. But Wilson could also get the roster spot over Cave. With as many LH relievers as the Marlins have and as mediocre as Cave is, not much point in sending him into a game to face a RHP if it's still not the last inning, and certainly not ahead of Marsh. Nor would you want Cave starting even against a RHP (stick with Rojas in CF and Marsh in LF for that).

To me it's more fascinating that our Opening Day CF and ostensible starting LF, Marsh, might not start the first two playoff games. But maybe he'll get Game 2 where the match-up isn't quite as tough.

I think Walker will make the roster because they just don't know whether or not Suarez etc. will be used in Games 1 or 2.

andyb 2023-10-02 19:14:47 UTC #25

Cave could still start a game against RHP. Just because a writer speculated that Pache might start does not mean that is the right call. If you are not going to use Wilson as an offensive option early in the game against their best left-handed starter he should not be on the roster.

As I said, if Wilson is not starting in game 3 they should just take all the OFs and mix/match them.

zambonir 2023-10-02 19:34:14 UTC #26

I assume in Game 3 they would still let Rojas start in CF and Marsh in LF, rather than Marsh/Cave.

I think it was informed speculation, FWIW. Based on something Thomson said, and perhaps his preference for good fielding over what is hardly guaranteed production at the plate (though Wilson has certainly had a few nice small sample MLB games). And also based on the fact that Wilson's OF experience is more limited. (It's certainly not nothing though. Also, he played more games at SS than anywhere else for Lehigh Valley this season, and managers are always ready to put the SS anywhere).

I would agree though, if Wilson's on the roster he should be the starter. It's hard to see a workable chain of events where Pache starts and then Marsh or Cave comes into LF and then Wilson PHs for one of them late. And I still don't think they carry an extra hitter.

At some point I also think you just gotta live with Marsh. And surely they aren't going to start Sosa over Stott? I guess they did last year but last year's Stott was a different player.

donaldorc 2023-10-02 19:34:45 UTC #27

I hope the Rangers are eliminated before the Phillies would have to face them. I still have a bad taste in my mouth from that opening series many months ago.

bkox 2023-10-02 19:38:56 UTC #28

Well if we face the Rangers it would be the world series.. so that would already be a pretty succesful post season.

I dont want to face Houston again.

donaldorc 2023-10-02 19:39:58 UTC #29

Ich auch nicht! Ni yo tampoco!

andyb 2023-10-02 19:42:13 UTC #30

Sosa's starts against LHP disappeared when Harper plays 1B full time. Harper at DH opens up 1B for Sosa and Cave (with Bohm shifting over for Sosa). Now we have another OF in the lineup and one that likely plays at least average defense. 2 of Marsh, Rojas, Cave, Pache and Wilson if he is on the roster.

Marsh just is not that good against LHP. Assume he starts on the bench and pinch hits with the platoon advantage by the 7th or 8th inning and finishes the game on D. Otherwise I still think they look for favorable matchups which is why Rojas might sit occasionally and Cave or Wilson or Pache might start occasionally.

zambonir 2023-10-02 19:44:21 UTC #31

Not the same Rangers team that beat us certainly. I'm not sure they are going to get past Tampa. Also not the same Astros team. But yes I will happily face any American League team. I can barely imagine us getting to the NLCS quite yet.

But the dream match-up - for entertainment and regional intensity not competition - would be Baltimore. Honestly the re-match/revenge would be my second choice. I suppose we should also wish for Minnesota or Toronto as the Phillies would then have home field (unless Minnesota's seed trumps record). We had trouble with both of those teams too really.

zambonir 2023-10-02 19:47:54 UTC #32

I'm talking about in the 2022 playoffs though. Sosa started ahead of Stott against LHP twice in the World Series and probably a few other times too (with Stott later entering the game each time). That was at SS of course but could happen at 2B now. Nothing to do with Bohm or Harper. Stott's a better player with better numbers against LHP this year (possibly even better than Sosa's) but that would not necessarily stop Thomson from favoring the general platoon advantage.

andyb 2023-10-02 19:56:25 UTC #33

But that was last year with Sosa. Stott is better this year and has not really sat at all other than a once a month rest day.

Marsh, on the other hand, struggles and looks bad against LHP. He should sit at the beginning of those games. We have seen what Thomson is going to do with the 3 of them all month. Bigger question is really Rojas. He has gotten lucky with a .410 BABIP. But Thomson rides the hot hand so I assume Rojas will get most but not maybe quite all of the starts.

tom81 2023-10-02 20:08:11 UTC #34

My dream matchup is a game 7 with Tampa Bay with the good friends Nola and Eflin starting.

zambonir 2023-10-02 20:25:55 UTC #35

That'd be fun. And Tampa is obviously a great team and organization. There's even history. But they are still Tampa.

More likely both of those guys would be pitching in relief in Game 7.

Maybe we'd get Eflin vs. Taijuan Walker

Lucky_Beagle 2023-10-02 21:14:34 UTC #36

But what I really want to know is what are Wheeler's numbers at home on a Tuesday night when the game starts after 8 PM?

zambonir 2023-10-02 21:17:55 UTC #37

in the postseason, in 2023, 0-0

Aquapong 2023-10-02 22:07:15 UTC #38

With winds above 10mph or below?

zambonir 2023-10-02 23:42:02 UTC #39

So I guess it was a previous Lauber story I was thinking of. Roster at noon tomorrow.

Thomson has settled on a Game 1 left fielder but wouldn’t make it public because he hadn’t informed the players. He hinted Sunday that righty-hitting Cristian Pache might be the choice because of his defense.

Callison 2023-10-03 00:17:06 UTC #40

Tx for looking, bkox. So the Phils look slightly better playing days. Let's just hope it's the same or worse for the Marlins. Might even be the norm. Woulda been encouraging the other way.

Cave LOOKS like a hitter. And Big Rob has given him EVERY chance to do something, but Cave hasn't done it. And he's still with the team. IMHO, if you're on big Rob's team, you'll get PT and you'll get responsibility, so Cave will get more chances. Showed some promise midseason. I still recall "The Jake Cave Game" against the Orioles...

I wonder if Big Rob play Schwarber in LF.